New York Fed @NewYorkFed
Serving the Second District and the Nation. Tweets from President John Williams are signed -JCW. newyorkfed.org New York City, USA Joined June 2008-
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The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q1 remains at 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.2] and the 68% interval at [0.7, 3.7]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.7% for 2024:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3LbPEur
JUST RELEASED: Outlook-at-Risk → Downside risks to real GDP growth remain at historically normal levels, with the estimated conditional distribution of average growth over the next four quarters close to the unconditional distribution. Explore the data: nyfed.org/41kwlUL
In today's post, the authors review how New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel data have provided many valuable insights into household behavior and its implications for the macro economy and financial stability. nyfed.org/3xPuM8c
Activity remained steady in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to our April 2024 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at -0.6. Explore the data: nyfed.org/2ygXLUi
In today's post, the authors review some of the Survey of Consumer Expectations' headline findings, highlighting the evolution of consumers’ expectations about inflation and labor market outcomes over the past decade. nyfed.org/4cW4lOt
Earlier today, President John Williams discussed the state of the U.S. economy, recent inflation data, and the outlook for monetary policy with Bloomberg Television. Watch here: bloom.bg/43XLIp4
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. Learn more: nyfed.org/2T8gCbr
In today's post, the authors provide a critical review of the empirical and theoretical literature on bank supervision to highlight its impact on supervised banks, the banking industry, and the broader economy. nyfed.org/3PZi50Y
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q1 remains at 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.2] and the 68% interval at [0.7, 3.8]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.6% for 2024:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3LbPEur
Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. In today's post, the authors study the supply chain reconfiguration and associated effects of export controls by the U.S. government. nyfed.org/3UcurW7
In today's post, the authors show that the relationship between the policy rates of the European Central Bank and the size of European money market funds investing in euro-denominated securities is positive—if policy rates are positive. nyfed.org/4aTILIF
In today's post, the authors examine the possible factors behind the reaction of insurance investors to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. nyfed.org/4cQveTM
Puerto Rico’s community development financial institution (CDFI) sector has grown 15-fold over the last 10 years. In today's article, the authors explain what led to that growth. tellerwindow.newyorkfed.org/2024/04/08/bui…
Why are “equitable” and “growth” important to our understanding of the economy? In today’s article, Director of Research Kartik Athreya shares why he thinks such works matters. nyfed.org/3vAKbc9
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19K Followers 998 Following business + data correspondent @nbcnews. 🏦 💸👟 via @yahoofinance @spgmarketintel @federalreserve. say hi: [email protected]Video from our #AMEC symposium is up: 🔹 U.S. Productivity Growth: Looking Ahead nyfed.org/3NVr0PT
The three panels today will cover #WFH and the future of cities; #ai, technology, and #productivity; and the major structural forces shaping growth in the U.S. @SVNieuwerburgh, @Lucia_Econ, @ChadJonesEcon, @emma_k_h, and @laura_veldkamp are among those speaking.
Our symposium—"U.S. Productivity Growth: Looking Ahead”—is getting underway at 9:30 a.m. We have a line-up of three excellent panels. The conference is open to the public virtually. RSVP for the livestream: nyfed.org/3NVr0PT #EconTwitter
Liberty Street Economics will feature a research series focused on understanding extreme weather’s impact on the economy of the Fed’s Second District. Follow along beginning Nov. 8. #NY #NJ #CT #PuertoRico #USVI Media Advisory: nyfed.org/40lP2Zm
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SURVEY October 2023: The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. nyfed.org/2T8gCbr
JOIN US ONLINE NY Fed economists and research analysts will discuss #career paths for students interested in #economics. Students, guidance counselors, and professors are welcome. Wednesday, Oct. 18 4:00–5:30 pm ET Learn more and register: bit.ly/46tRxdW #FedEconJobs
The video from our #FinTech conference is up. Sessions focused on innovative applications of #digitalassets and #generativeAI as well as the perils inherent in the technologies. Speakers were from @Microsoft, @FinRegLab, @MIT, @Citibank, and more. nyfed.org/3P8UJ7V
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of International Debt Market Data By Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias >>> nyfed.org/3F6dkwN #AMEC
JOIN US ONLINE New York Fed economists and research analysts will discuss #career paths for students interested in #economics. Guidance counselors and professors welcome. Wednesday, Oct. 18 4:00–5:30 pm ET Learn more and register: bit.ly/46tRxdW #EconJobs #econtwitter
Good Morning! Today we’re hosting our fourth #FinTech conference, focused on innovative applications of #DigitalAssets and #GenerativeAI as well as the perils to market integrity, privacy, and security inherent in these technologies. Agenda >> nyfed.org/3P8UJ7V
JUST RELEASED -- SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY: The median reported y/y increase in monthly nominal household spending rose to 5.5%. The median expected monthly overall spending growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 3.4%. nyfed.org/2WBoliX
SCE HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SURVEY--AUG 2023: The share of households that reported making at least one large purchase in the last four months increased to 63.5% from 57.3%, its highest reading since August 2015. nyfed.org/2WBoliX
Applications for Research Analyst positions with a summer 2024 start date are now being accepted. A few RAs share thoughts on their experience in the video clip below. For more info visit: nyfed.org/rarecruit
AUG 2023 Corporate bond market functioning appears healthy. The end-of-month market-level CMDI is below its historical 20th percentile. Market functioning in both the high-yield and investment-grade sectors improved during the course of August. >>nyfed.org/cmd
REPLAY: Our authors found that borrowers availing themselves of student debt #forbearance expected a 16 percent chance of delinquency on #studentloans when relief ended. Check out the post from the @LibertyStEcon archive: nyfed.org/3K3jgXv
@NewYorkFed Yes, "corridor system" with no IOR. Thank you!
SCE Credit Access Survey: The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The rejection rate for auto loans increased to a new series high of 14.2 percent, up from 9.1 percent in February. nyfed.org/2UafALt
Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation was 3.5 percent in May, unchanged from April. The 68 percent probability band is (3.0,4.0). Data and sectoral insights: nyfed.org/mct Companion post: Where Is Inflation Persistence Coming From? nyfed.org/3O1XgBz
In a wide-ranging Q&A with the FT’s Colby Smith at #CEBRA23, New York Fed President and CEO John C. Williams noted a potential structural shift in the demand for housing versus 2019, for reasons related to #WFH and the #pandemic. >> bit.ly/3Ju7rMA
@ProfJWags Let’s do this!
We thought this was a great idea! And you've inspired us to hand over the reins to our resident summer undergraduate to break down some of our blogs over the summer. Her posts will come with the #AbbigailExplainsIt hashtag. So, without further ado, please welcome Abbigail!