tylermcclellan @tylermacro10
Global macro (PM & Research) 15+ yrs. NYC Joined March 2016-
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Épisode cévenol: Cumuls en 3 jours depuis vendredi mi-journée. Les 200mm ont été dépassés malgré des intensités horaires restant modérées (27mm/h max sur Cévennes ardéchoises). #cevennes #vigilancejaune Restez informés vigilance.meteofrance.fr vigicrues.gouv.fr
People who talk about relative fx moves and Interest rate differentials are not telling you the standard theory In the standard theory the NIIP of all countries converge towards zero over time A reserve currency benefits by having a positive income differential—but that’s it…
Now compare this with the todays flash estimate of energy inflation Genuinely risible
Now compare this with the todays flash estimate of energy inflation Genuinely risible
So a $1mm battery connected to the grid makes about $400 per day?
Has anyone here ever charged their EV at zero (or preferably negative prices)? *not including charging at home
"Je ne pars plus en vacances": la détresse de cette habitante d'Irigny, confrontée aux inondations à répétition l.bfmtv.com/PhEs
“But you know the Anglo-Saxon economists have proven the euro is a Franco-German vanity project destined to fail because they are ignorant of the political and economic history of optimal currency unions” A sentiment you don’t hear as much of anymore
⚡ China's rapid growth in Gas-fired power generation could lead to gas supply gap 2024-2026, which may be filled mainly by LNG imports 🚢 ...said Huatai Securities Research in a new report analyzing 🇨🇳 gas power sector outlook. #ONGT
There's no terrible news in today's PCE reading, but it's increasingly clear you can't just stand around and pray for lower interest rates. If you want rate cuts (and you should) you need to do deficit reduction. slowboring.com/p/its-the-righ…
A large (and growing) discrepancy…
Much to learn here, Not a good time to be an IPP- you sell power (and less and less of it all the time) for zero
What is truly special about big tech? Scale invariance
What is truly special about big tech? Scale invariance
The wholesale cost is ≈ 0 per mwh But you pay $180 What a wonderful feeling…
further normalization. march was an outlier and that mid-month bump for april probably was too. when we get the monthlies medicare wages are going to be elevated vs socsec wages again. this is all bonus/SBC stuff. kinda crazy its so big it moves the macro aggregates
Ummm, Not surprising to me, but…
Fascinating that parts of CA property values are imploding, but the funding base keeps going up by 6/8% per year because of prop 13…
I genuinely love that the highest scoring cities on where you can earn the most and spend the least are in the Bay Area… Couldn’t be more perfect
🌏🥂China National ETS celebrates Earth Day 2024 with CEA price hitting record high at CNY 100/t ≈€13 🧐What has triggered the price rally? From my perspective, the most important factor is the recalibration of the #cnets allowances supply which adds on the market bullishness
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Great interactive discussion this morning at @Kpler Power briefing on the rather fascinating action on power markets lately, especially cross-border constraints
Morning in London at the @Kpler Power Briefing Breakfast. @Emericdevigan shared insights on summer power supply/demand, focusing on hydro, nuclear, & renewables. Good interactive session with solid attendance.
@tylermacro10 If M-1>45 then VAT(M)=10% else VAT(M)=21% EndIf 🤣🤣
To me this still screams at least 4 cuts by the ECB. Hard for hawks to win the fight over October, if inflation will be around 1.5%. That said, today’s data (CPI+GDP) made July slightly less likely on the margin, and hence 5 cuts is becoming a long shot. 11/11
Hmm I guess not quite.
AI is to Taiwan what GLP-1 is to Denmark
China non-manufacturing PMI for new orders is at a new, ex-pandemic, low. Doesn't augur well for activity.
@tylermacro10 For euro zone we will get deflators only with second release in early June...
@tylermacro10 @fbeirao Another thing is that Italy has such wind and solar potential they should be building it themselves.
MedMen burns down the joint MedMen shareholders left with sticks and seeds MedMen future smelling skunky The headlines write themselves
Cannabis company MedMen files for bankruptcy with about $411M in liabilities as it fortunes go up in smoke trib.al/Hg6Vpyf
@Resurrec_Ted @StatisticUrban This is a TERRIBLE policy that does not work, costing taxpayers quite a large sum of money, and ruins families if they don't have enough children. Even if you do meet the criteria, do you think child nr 4 will have a good life if he was only born to fulfill a loan?
@MattZeitlin Some of us stare at our phones in diners and bars. We can have both.
My neighborhood dive bar is all millennials and gen z, and the owner and bartenders know everyone’s names, and people talk to strangers sitting at the bar. I think the people who tweet stuff like this just feel guilty that they personally no longer go to third places.
I feel so sad for younger generations because this is like, all Gen X did. You worked your crappy job so you could have enough money and then you spent all the rest of your time at your third places; your coffee shop, your neighborhood dive bar, Denny’s
@tylermacro10 Thanks That’s way outside my bailiwick, I’m afraid. Need a younger person to step up to the plate!
Understanding gold prices used to be straightforward: one had to have a view on the direction of US real rates to hold, buy or sell gold. Gold traded inversely to real rates for decades as fast-money ETFs in the West had to buy, hold or sell physical gold based on the changing…
Chinese home prices declined for 10 months in a row, both for new-built and 2nd hand. That is after they declined for 16 months in a row starting in Sept 2021. Gold prices at the SGE & SHFE is the only price that goes up in China for the past 12 months, of course other than the…
Refined product in transit, ex LPG. Graph as of 9 Apr, now even higher
Inflation only seems high because the BLS isn't considering the increased quality of cocaine.
Last day of the 4 week inpatient general surgery rotation 🫶
@tylermacro10 Not seen a #Gazprom or whole Russia #natgas production update in months. Gazprom used to be about 60-65% of all Russian gas production, but that will be down quite a lot now.
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