fred hickey @htsfhickey
Editor, The High-Tech Strategist since 1987. Nashua, NH Joined November 2010-
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Lots of good points made in this gold analysis
Lots of good points made in this gold analysis
Want a sign of how wild trading is with AI-related stocks? Broadcom was up 139.36 points (12%) last week on no specific Broadcom-related news. The prior week there was also no specific cause for Broadcom's 139.38 (-10%) point loss. Two week move: a drop of 2 cents per share. This…
Changing times for the long-suffering gold miners. Newmont, largest gold miner in world (& only one in S&P 500) blows-out estimates this A.M. (+53% above analysts' consensus). NEM's stock jumps 12.5% today. Agnico Eagle (3rd largest gold miner, #2 in market cap.) tonight reported…
Corrections in big gold bull markets are often swift and sharp, and given the recent huge move up, a correction is no surprise. I have no idea how long it will last, but this Kitco article is a worthwhile read on that subject. “From a trading psychology perspective, it makes…
In addition to the enormous debasement of G-7 currencies via central bank money printing, out-of-control government spending, deficits and debt pile ups, this article helps explain why gold (& silver) are becoming the hot asset to own globally (excluding the West - for now) as a…
The pressure on Apple just keeps ratcheting up. "Huawei has packed the devices with premium smartphone features. The back of the phone has a textured covering, while the Ultra version of the gear has a 6.8-inch screen. All of the new phone offerings are equipped with cameras that…
While Taiwan Semi is benefitting from the Generative AI capacity buildout, the news for the rest of the semiconductor industry was not as bright as TSM revised down 2024 semiconductor market growth expectations. TSM CEO CC Wei on conference call this AM: “Looking at 2024 as a…
Just a quarter of the way through the year (through March) and the Reserve Bank of India has already purchased more gold than it did all of last year. Central bank gold accumulation is a trend that shows no signs of stopping.
Just a quarter of the way through the year (through March) and the Reserve Bank of India has already purchased more gold than it did all of last year. Central bank gold accumulation is a trend that shows no signs of stopping.
This response is a good example of the Appleholics' denial that something is very wrong in Cupertino. Apple's cash flow is dropping sharply year-over-year, along with its buybacks (see AAPL's latest fiscal year results). Cook's never done any meaningful acquisitions and new…
The other non-"Magnificent Seven" stock (besides AAPL), Tesla, is also seeing its sales growth run in the wrong direction and that's now reportedly leading to 10% layoffs at the company. "Tesla is maturing as a company and isn’t the growth story that it used to be," said Craig…
How much longer can Apple investors pretend AAPL is a high growth stock deserving to be valued at a 27.5 P/E ratio & a $2.7 trillion market cap when unit shipments of its primary product (iPhones) are consistently showing negative growth? Per IDC, iPhone shipments in Q1 dropped…
Friday saw Western traders push gold past $2,400 leading to algo buying & short-covering. Once the upward momentum faded, they sold gold off (hard). Normally, after a long gold run-up followed by a significant intraday reversal, we would expect to see a lengthy correction. Next…
At least there are some Westerners buying gold (U.S. retail - up to $200 million per mo. in gold bars through Costco, but not U.S. & London institutional investors). “The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick on-line sell-outs of product, and COST’s robust monthly eComm…
The pattern continues - gold up sharply in Asia overnight (as physical gold buying soars) and then attempts in NY to take it back down. Gold futures open interest fell yesterday by 5K contracts to 504K. That's 36K fewer open contracts than about mo. ago (March 13), yet gold is…
It's pretty clear who is driving gold to record highs: Asians (who have been the largest consumers of physical gold for a very long time). Not Westerners who are relatively minor players in the physical gold market. This story is an example of the extremely high interest in gold…
We're coming towards the end of the Gen AI (not AI) hype phase. "'And I think that’s led to uncertainty about whether language models are actually that valuable for business applications," Colson said, referring to the AI systems behind ChatGPT and other programs. Some have…
These are the people hurt most by inflation "the cruelest tax"). It's not the rich and it's not the very poor (who are cared for by the government). It's everyone else in the middle. (It also doesn't help that the BLS CPI calculations are questionable). Wish the Fed understood…
Correct. Westerners are not driving this gold rally. And it's Westerners who move the mining stocks. That's the opportunity for those who feel they've "missed" the gold move. Normally, miners increase 2-3x gold in rallies, yet gold's up 13% YTD & GDX only up 9% (off severely…
Correct. Westerners are not driving this gold rally. And it's Westerners who move the mining stocks. That's the opportunity for those who feel they've "missed" the gold move. Normally, miners increase 2-3x gold in rallies, yet gold's up 13% YTD & GDX only up 9% (off severely…
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15K Followers 921 Following @ZDNet AI/ML reporter; Editor, The Technology Letter. Covering business and technology for over 29 years for Barron’s, Fortune, Bloomberg, NY Times and others.Understanding gold prices used to be straightforward: one had to have a view on the direction of US real rates to hold, buy or sell gold. Gold traded inversely to real rates for decades as fast-money ETFs in the West had to buy, hold or sell physical gold based on the changing…
Chinese home prices declined for 10 months in a row, both for new-built and 2nd hand. That is after they declined for 16 months in a row starting in Sept 2021. Gold prices at the SGE & SHFE is the only price that goes up in China for the past 12 months, of course other than the…
From Sep 2011 to Feb 2024 Gold $1920 to $1970 Silver -56% GDXJ -78% GDX -57% From 2001 to 2011 Gold $255 to $1920 Silver +1133% HUI +1686% GDXJ +1289% (w/ TDG 2002 data ext) Gold will outperform over very long periods of time. Gold Stocks & Silver outperform during Gold…
@htsfhickey Was it the result of sober analysts doing discounted cash flow analysis and factoring the AI trend in their models to sell one week and buy the next?
My Twitter/X feed is loaded w/ bearish comments on miners today pointing out horrible performance since 2011 top; quality miners are generating record operating margins per ounce in the month of April, 2024; past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The Bank of Japan says its weakening currency is having no major impact on underlying inflation. Read that again. I have always said gold is a hedge against stupidity… It is now on full display. The yen has lost 8% of its purchasing power against gold in the last 30 days.
@GoldTelegraph_ The BoJ's stance is interesting. While inflation may not be a major concern yet, the weakening yen can impact imports. Gold's role as a hedge is undeniable. #CurrencyMarkets #GoldStandard
India returns to a Gold premium $300 higher than when they bought the February lows: mining.com/web/asia-gold-…
@hendry_hugh I agree 100% when it comes to just buying the GDX or any other ETF. But this is where years of painful lessons in owning/trading/ evaluating individual miners pays off. You have to pick the right miners and then watch them like a hawk. It's not for the faint of heart.
@MichaelB8041 @htsfhickey Barrick Gold ran an enormous hedge book for forward gold sales for a few decades and it eventually caused massive problems. They paid a high price to fix the mess.
@MichaelB8041 @htsfhickey Hedging for gold mining is normally only done by a small producer or mid tier miner when building a new mine. Lots of risk building a new mine the size of Greenstone. Lots can go wrong. So Equinox Gold hedged for a short period until mine hits nameplate production capacity
@htsfhickey Amen to that! Thank you, Fred, for taking the time to lay this all out. Greatly appreciated, as are all of your posts and, of course your monthly HTS.
@htsfhickey THANK YOU FRED! Your picks in HTS are the bright spot of my portfolio!
@htsfhickey If you want to read evidence-based and clearly written analyses of macro economics events, tech companies, gold and gold miners, read Fred Hickey's tweets and far more productively, subscribe to his outstanding newsletter.
@htsfhickey Look at all these charts Fred. Wall St is the only business when things are cheap nobody wants it.
@htsfhickey Assuming gold stay at current , Q2 will be even better for miners in terms of FCF generation as they only benefited of 1 month of strong gold price in March for Q1 vs 3months in Q2..
@htsfhickey Thank you Fred🙏🏻! You nailed it on $NEM. So glad to be a subscriber to your newsletter😅.
"Emerging markets have been the biggest end consumers for decades but they haven't been able to exert pricing power because of fast money in the west. Now, we are getting to the stage where speculative money in emerging markets can exert pricing power." ft.com/content/caefcd…
Maybe you can help put that all in context.” Musk’s response, “I think we've said all that we will on that front. ” Although previously discussed during the CC, as implied by Sacconaghi’s question, the details were vague surrounding the new models. Something to keep an eye on.
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