Derek @derekdevore

Ex-hedge fund trader. 20+ yrs in options. Building AI investment models: what works, what fails, and the trades. Join the lab 👇 skool.com/the-ai-investo… Los Angeles, CA Joined March 2011

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Derek @derekdevore

7 hours ago

@TradingComposur About 22+ years here and I agree.

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Derek @derekdevore

10 hours ago

@DeFiTracer 🤣🤣🤣

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Simple rule before any earnings trade: Revenue guidance = demand. One-time items = not repeatable. Make the AI separate the two. Then verify every quote against the actual release. The headline is the start of the analysis, not the end. Not financial advice.

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Derek @derekdevore

10 hours ago

Why options traders should care: Buying calls on "guidance raised" is a bet the market reads it the same way you did. If the raise comes mostly from refunds and revenue guidance is soft, that bet is weaker than the headline suggests.

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Derek @derekdevore

10 hours ago

"Profit guidance raised" sounds bullish. An AI summary will happily tell you it is. But a one-time item can lift profit guidance while the core business slows. If you trade earnings with LLM summaries, this is the gap to watch.

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Derek @derekdevore

11 hours ago

I really like the fundamental thesis on $SHOP too. The fact that they are embracing agentic shopping is huge.

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Derek @derekdevore

11 hours ago

One lesson from studying hundreds of big momentum winners: When a stock runs hard, I see expensive call premium. Take $SHOP. It’s more than 4x off its 2022 levels, and it rallied from the $110s this summer to the high $140s by the end of September. Most traders look at that chart and say “too extended.” After a run like that, everyone wants upside exposure. Call buyers pile in, and near-term call premium inflates. That premium is the opportunity. The structure: - Buy a longer-term call vertical, for example Jan ‘28 $150/$200: defined cost, defined upside - Sell a near-term calls into the inflated premium - Repeat the near-term sale cycle after cycle, chipping away at the cost of the long spread Your potential upside on the long vertical will act as "protection" against the short calls. This will tell you when it's time to roll them. I’m still looking for the same things: Explosive momentum A powerful story Extreme attention and demand $SHOP checks the boxes.

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Derek @derekdevore

14 hours ago

If anyone still doesn't use pivot points in their analysis. Why?

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Derek @derekdevore

14 hours ago

Selling premium is never a free lunch. First make sure you have a plan if price moves up, down or sideways. Treat price action like a game of chess. Think at least three moves ahead.

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Derek @derekdevore

16 hours ago

$2,599 laptop. Compute Jensen Huang compared to a $250M Nvidia server from 2016, per CNBC. For traders running AI research, local models mean no cloud bill per query. Bigger detail: Windows can confine coding agents in containers. Sandbox the agent before you scale it.

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Derek @derekdevore

22 hours ago

Where AI helps: paste your legs and ask for breakevens and max loss at expiry. That's arithmetic you can verify. Where it doesn't: guessing the curve before expiry. That needs live IV and pricing. Let your broker's model draw it. Not financial advice.

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Derek @derekdevore

22 hours ago

Most platforms can plot a "today" line next to the expiration line. Three checks before entry: 1. Where is breakeven today vs at expiry? 2. How far does the curve sag in 2 weeks if the stock goes nowhere? 3. What happens if IV drops 10 points?

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Derek @derekdevore

22 hours ago

Most payoff diagrams show your trade on exactly one day: expiration. Every day before that, your P&L follows a different curve. If you only read the hockey stick, you're reading the last page and skipping the book.

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Derek @derekdevore

a day ago

Claude picked the pair. Time-series math makes the forecast. Two details worth stealing: - A no-trade band when the signal is near zero - Know your target: a close-open model can be right on a day the stock is red via NTTP on Medium medium.com/@nttp/forecast…