Derek Daly @derekodaly

It’s hard to disagree with this. AI could very well be a farce. The OPEN AI earnings miss today was pretty stunning.

George Noble @gnoble79

a day ago

ANOTHER NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF THE AI TRADE The Financial Times reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, against the $70 billion the market had been talking about. That’s yet another nail in the coffin of the AI trade. We’re

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"We realized that if we could accumulate assets – particularly in an inflationary time – with cheap fixed rate debt, it was hard not to make a fortune." - Sam Zell

Amanda Orson @amandaorson

3 days ago

Most of us weren't alive during the last rising-interest-rate environment in the 70s but let's rewind through the lens of two different investors: Trammel Crow and Sam Zell Crow pioneered warehouse development and was doing both lots of projects and some BIG projects

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Holy cow.

Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook

6 days ago

Short interest (as % of shares outstanding) in the Russell 2000 has risen to the 99.8th percentile. JPMorgna via @BlakeMillardCFA

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote that a company renting an AI model “essentially pays for intelligence twice”: Once in money, and again in the proprietary knowledge it has to reveal to make the model useful. This mechanism is called the learning loop: every prompt and correction captures some of the company's know-how. That knowledge is distilled and, with a closed model, the provider keeps that information. If your usage data is worth more than the token cost to serve, providers might end up paying you to use their models. The precedent exists: OpenAI created an opt-in program that gives accounts up to 1M free tokens a day on certain models in exchange for training rights on that traffic. Chips can be rented and algorithms can be leaked or distilled, but the prompts and corrections flowing through a model compound privately for whoever holds them.

Strava for work how fucking good

N. @Nlacombe_

5 days ago

introducing Promethee, an app that turns your work into a multiplayer game, to perform. now available for everyone. promethee.io

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Join us on Promethee !

N. @Nlacombe_

5 days ago

introducing Promethee, an app that turns your work into a multiplayer game, to perform. now available for everyone. promethee.io

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The number of bad takes I’ve heard from Eisman is zero

Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha

6 days ago

Steve Eisman says Michael Burry’s AI depreciation thesis “too academic” and says an OpenAI failure is the much larger risk “I think, with all due respect to Michael, I think his argument is too academic." "Put it this way: if AI succeeds because Anthropic and OpenAI grow like

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You can quickly understand a lot of someone’s life when you know the ages of their kids. It makes rapport building easy. Something I never would’ve thought about pre-fatherhood.

christine @christineist

a week ago

it blows my mind how my friends who parent enter a different timeline... it happens very quickly. they have 1 kid, then the kid is 2 years old, then they have another kid, and all of a sudden they have a whole family and household and they’re moving through a different set of

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The president of my old company is the most successful guy I've ever worked for. He's also my biggest warning. He started his first company in his late 20s, built it, and sold it for millions. That wasn't enough. He started another one, the company where I began my career and stayed for over a decade. He grew that one too. Massive success. The price: two marriages. And all of his kids but one have zero relationship with him. That's what happens to a lot of high performers who are also high spenders. Every win raises the lifestyle, the lifestyle needs a bigger win, and the goal post keeps moving back until something breaks. Usually it's the people. I'm 34 with about $4.37M net worth. My goal post stops at $5M plus a paid off house. I won't stop working. I'll just work on my own terms: my time, my people, my calendar. Money is a great motivator. It's a terrible thing to make your whole life.

A map of the Nasdaq AI on the left, Big Tech at the bottom, defensives and biotech on top right. Within the MAG7, Meta, Google, Amazon bunch together. Microsoft is with software, Apple is independent. Tesla is next to Palantir. Nvidia sits in the center of AI with AMD, ASML, ARM attached. A second megacap AI cluster with memory (Micron) and infrastructure (Broadcom) has come up next to it.

40% of family offices run with just 1-3 full-time professionals

Mr Family Office @MrFamilyOffice

2 weeks ago

~62% of family offices have teams of 6 or fewer Institutional ambition, boutique headcount

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This is ABSOLUTELY wild. The reverse mirror image is so accurate it's almost scary. Very scary. The inverse of the 10yr yield is.... $MCD. What a sight.

@alexsongis FICO

🦔Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its AI data center in New Mexico built for the $400 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI. The campus needs a 17-mile gas pipeline to power its Bloom Energy fuel cells. New Mexico denied the pipeline permits twice. Oracle wants the right to delay payments if the site misses its 2028 opening. $18 billion in project loans are at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. ORCL fell 5%. My Take Force majeure is for earthquakes and wars. Oracle filed one over a gas permit they got denied twice. A company with $167 billion in debt and a junk-adjacent credit rating just told its development partner it might not pay on time. I think Oracle's balance sheet is worse than the market has priced in, and this notice is the first public admission. Twenty banks lent $18 billion for this project and they can't move the debt. Santander and Jefferies are stuck with more than they planned to hold. That loan assumed Oracle's backlog converts to revenue on schedule, but half the backlog is OpenAI, a company that burns cash faster than it earns it. SemiAnalysis has first power at this site in 2029. The banks underwrote 2028. I think the AI infrastructure bet cracks here first, in the loan market, before it ever shows up in stock prices, and the banks who funded the construction are the ones left with the bill. Hedgie🤗

I had to look this up to confirm it. Foreign t-bill purchases have dropped 80% this year vs 2025. This is a colossal nightmare for Bessent. This is the only paper he’s issuing. Who is going to buy all of this? The world is walking away from us. Terrifying.

Even for quants, as a pm there are many ways you can hurt your career from piss poor decision making in high stress environments: mostly around trying to make the pain stop // chasing comfort // protecting an identity. Making the pain stop: cutting the book rapidly after some drawdown and not being able to recover in the subsequent reversion. Chasing comfort: sizing up at the peak of your strategies, sizing down at the trough of your strategies (see making the pain stop). The above are papercut sequences where you see teams just drawdown slowly until management loses patience and eventually cut them. Protecting identity: trying to hold on to the image as a perpetual rainmaker, and doubling down on a dying strategy/book without understanding if the drawdown is a result of alpha decay and/or some systemic change. This is the blow up sequence, where teams will hit enormous drawdowns from doubling down, sometimes outside pre-agreed risk limits.

Tom Coste @tcoste110

2 weeks ago

I've always been surprised that the most controversial (IMO) opinion in my book is something I've never been called out on. It is my belief that you cannot be a successful professional trader (quant or otherwise) without having a genetic pre-disposition for the management of

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The economy is absolutely ripping

fejau @fejau_inc

3 weeks ago

The economy is absolutely ripping

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Sam Altman is warning the world about Sam Altman, and says we need to stop Sam Altman because Sam Altman can’t stop Sam Altman.

CSPAN @cspan

2 weeks ago

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on potential dangers of AI: "First, we could lose control of the future to AI. The risk is that it moves so fast that people can no longer follow what's happening or intervene when needed."

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The smart money sees right through the AI Mania. Be smart money.

zerohedge @zerohedge

2 weeks ago

Just one problem: the world's largest corporate bond ($27BN) backing the world's biggest data center, is now trading at an all time low of 94c (a far cry from the 110 on the break) despite an A+ rating, residual guarantees and so on. How's that looking Pimco?

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@leevalueroach KIO