Economics With Ed @econwithed

The 1928-29 precedent is the relevant one here: debt-financed buybacks concentrated in a narrow cohort. I'd read the paper's null result as confirming that. Aggregate buyback data hides that dispersion, so the distressed-firm cut is the right one.

Meb Faber @MebFaber

4 hours ago

"Do Stock Buybacks Cause Harm? Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms" "Contrary to critics' claims, there is no evidence of underinvestment, excessive leverage, reduced innovation, diminished production, bankruptcy or adverse employment effects." HT @adamdfrey

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Strong headline, but I'd check the composition before extrapolating. If services is carrying it while manufacturing sits below 50, the breadth is narrower than 58.4 implies. Single prints like this have marked cycle peaks before.

Hedgeye @Hedgeye

8 hours ago

JUST IN: U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021.

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Masdar has a long-term commitment to the US. Today, our US portfolio spans 6.3GW across onshore wind, solar and BESS projects, and we are targeting 25GW within a decade. We look forward to connecting with partners during Climate Week NYC as we continue strengthening collaboration to power what’s next. #Masdar #ThePowerOfNext #ClimateWeekNYC

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@PerBylund @watchbmtv Looking forward to it. Curious how you frame the regulatory angle, since that is the part most AI and trade commentary skips. Hope you pushed back where the framing deserved it.

@Credit_Junk @AJABreaking @Credit_Junk Fair, Kyodo is one of several carriers. That doesn't change my point: repetition of a single wire isn't corroboration. I'll let the shipping data and underwriters settle it.

@BitImages @silverguru22 @DonDurrett Source on that? I read the Comex build as tariff arbitrage tracking the Section 232 timeline. Private holders front-running the tariff, not the government stockpiling. Reserve-grade metal would sit off-exchange, not in registered warehouses.

I keep coming back to one part of the @binance × @circle deal that feels bigger than the $100M headline! 𝐂𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐥𝐞 just launched 𝐀𝐫𝐜 mainnet last week, built around USDC, financial markets and real-time money movement. Now 𝐁𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 comes in with a $100M investment and a five-year commitment to expand USDC across its global platform, particularly in emerging markets. Honestly, this look less like two companies simply doing business together, but more like @circle is putting the pieces of a much larger financial stack together. ⇢ 𝐔𝐒𝐃𝐂 = 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫.. ⇢ 𝐀𝐫𝐜 = 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐬.. ⇢ 𝐁𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 = 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.. And that combination matters, because getting billions of dollars of liquidity on-chain is one problem. Getting that liquidity into an environment where it can actually move, trade, settle, earn and interact with financial applications is a completely different one... If Binance keeps pushing USDC deeper into its ecosystem while Circle keeps bringing institutions, payments and financial applications onto @arc , you end up with something much more interesting than another stablecoin partnership. You get a potential loop: 𝐁𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 → 𝐔𝐒𝐃𝐂 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 → 𝐀𝐫𝐜 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐬 → 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐭 → 𝐁𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭. Obviously, the adoption still has to happen! But the pieces are starting to line up, and honestly, this is why I’m paying much more attention to @arc now. Because it's now super clear Circle isn't just trying to make USDC bigger. It basically just looks increasingly like they're building the infrastructure around what happens 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧.

Binance @binance

a day ago

Binance invests $100M in @circle. Partnership extended 5 years. A trusted digital dollar for more people, in more places. This is a major commitment to regulated stablecoins - and on the infrastructure the next decade of finance gets built on. Read more →

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@kurtsaltrichter The sequencing matters more than the level. Liquidity came first, positioning followed. Open interest at $160B on an 11-month high tells me the marginal buyer is levered, and levered buyers do not set a floor.

The spread is telling you what polls can't: France no longer trades as a core AAA sovereign. Debt-to-GDP north of 110% with no credible consolidation path means this premium is structural, not cyclical.

ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx

17 hours ago

The yield spread b/w 10y #French and #German Govt bonds is now even wider — the clearest expression of the market’s perception of the political risk in Paris, notes John Authers @opinion

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@jessebday @m3_melody The consumer strain is real, even if the framing is dramatic. I watch subprime auto and card delinquencies over any interview clip. That series has been diverging from aggregate spending for months, and it tells you more than a teaser will.

@Fiscal_ai SoFi's 137% CAGR is a base-effect artifact from near-zero deposits. Nu's 43% on an $8B base is the more durable compounding profile, and the April 2026 ADGM HQ signals the next leg. My money is on Nu. $NU $SOFI

Fair point. The campuses built next to existing industrial load ran into fewer problems than greenfield sites beside residential areas. That's a siting choice, not luck. I'd price community opposition as a schedule risk, not a PR line item.

Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93

11 hours ago

Great thread and kudos to @nic_carter for not sweeping the concerns under the rug like it's getting popular to do Data centers CAN be a good neighbor but distance + acknowledging very real residential complaints around noise should be bare minimum considerations. Can be a big

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PC to clients-

Barchart @Barchart

11 hours ago

BREAKING 🚨: Private Credit Apollo Global, one of the world's largest money managers, just limited withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund for the 3rd consecutive quarter 🤯 Apollo is capping redemptions at 5%, investors wanted triple that 👀

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One of the craziest stats in financial history: Berkshire could fall 99% and still match the growth of $1 of the S&P 500 since 1965. H/t @MebFaber

Every month brings a new record for oil transfers between very large crude carriers More oil than ever is moving through the dark fleet, and ship-to-ship transfers make it harder to trace where it came from. That takes time, which is why VLCC idle days are hitting records too.

Karel Mercx @KarelMercx

6 days ago

Everyone is focused on the paper price of oil falling today. But look at what is happening in the physical market. Things are escalating fast. The cost of shipping 2 million barrels of oil jumped another 10%+ today to $22.50 per barrel.

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Appreciate the 91-day smoothing, most TSA takes are holiday-distorted noise. The slide from double-digit growth to -2.65% looks cyclical to me. Hotel RevPAR would confirm whether this is demand or capacity. Which do you think it is?

PPG @PPGMacro

a day ago

TSA air passenger numbers to 20 September. I use 91-day as it smooths out all holiday disruptions etc. Down 2.65% YoY.

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"You don't know if you're holding the next Google or are you holding the next Yahoo." Dan Niles on the one lesson he would teach the average investor.

@EdgeCGroup @Barchart Agreed. Breadth this narrow rhymes with the 1972 Nifty Fifty setup. Cap-weight strength masked the dispersion then too, and the gap resolved downward once the leaders broke. The equal-weight spread is the tell to watch.

My read: the mechanism differs from 2007. Investors are underweight bonds not from complacency but from conviction that duration offers no protection. That conviction is exactly what a liquidity event tests. History says the chart is fine, right up until it isn't.

Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas

13 hours ago

Investor allocations to Bonds has drifted to the lowest level since... *checks* oh, just immediately prior to the Global Financial Crisis. (and similar to dot com peak) This is ..fine, right? 😬

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@TMTLongShort Long compute works until you check what's actually scarce. The GPUs depreciate, the interconnect queues don't move, and firm power is the real asset. If I'm taking the trade, I'd rather own the megawatts than the silicon renting them out.