Eric Kessler @ejkessler413
Loves Lord Jesus, wife, daughter, family, & Constitution. Engineer/Manager & in Church Men's Ministry. Loves Sailing, Science, Space & Mfg. Go $TSLA/SpaceX Great ole U S of A Joined September 2011-
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8. Why does this matter? This is a temporary headwind driven by early production ramp inefficiencies and hence is likely to mostly or fully disappear over the next 1-2 quarters.
7. The implied impact is $113M and corresponds to a -0.6%pts (-60 basis points) auto gross margin headwind for Tesla in Q1.
2. I used this information to back out the likely quantum of Cybertruck/Fremoment M3 ramp costs. I made the following assumptions: I assumed conservatively “auto margins improved slightly” to mean +0.05% (or +5 basis points).
1. Tesla’s CFO stated, “if we exclude Cybertruck and Fremont Model 3 ramp costs, the revenue from Autopark, auto margins improved slightly.”
9. Optimus update videos / optimus working in Tesla's factories by year end (as per Elon on Q1 call).
6. New M3 Performance provides slight tailwind to better mix for one or two quarters. 7. Robotaxi unveiling only 100 days away (8Aug) 8. Leaks about new lower cost vehicles' road testing likely emerge no later than Q3/Q4 2024.
3. New M3: Output Q2 likely above Q1s (which) 4. Cybertruck increased Q2 production (vs Q1) 5. Energy storage production ramping further supported by global excess battery capacity
🔥Tesla catalysts 2024 1. FSD performance jump provides permanent tailwind 2. Q1 creates super low bar/comparison: Q2 benefits from typical auto seasonality; excess Q1 demand, uninterrupted production, easing logistical challenges.
Singapore reported 211 Tesla sales and 6% market share for March. 🇸🇬 • Market share is 250 basis points or 71% above the 3-month trailing average of 3.5% • Tesla 3th best-selling brand • 36% Model Y and 64% Model 3 • 4th best third month of the quarter ever and -2% vs. the…
Biggest daily $TSLA gains since 2019 2/3/2020 - 19.90% 3/9/2021 - 19.64% 3/19/2020 - 18.40% 10/24/2019 - 17.67% 3/24/2020 - 16.30% 4/29/2024 - 15.31% 2/4/2020 - 13.73%
Launching Tesla FSD (Supervised) in China would add another 2 million potential customers. At a 35% take rate of $99 per month, that's ~$0.8 billion in profit per year. $TSLA
Gee, I don't know if this is a significant movement, but I hope so. Trump will need it to win the election against biden and all the "ballot harvest" corruption & cheating. youtube.com/shorts/aF_F3cV…
In honor of International Women’s Day,I’d like to remind the world that there are still 19 INNOCENT WOMEN being held HOSTAGE in Gaza by Hamas. Today& everyday,we cannot be silent and let this continue.These women and all 134 hostages deserve to COME HOME NOW! #BringBackOurGirls
My first impressions of the new Tesla Model 3 🇦🇺
Aahhhh hahaha! Very funny!
Aahhhh hahaha! Very funny!
Exactly 💯
After 36 days docked to the @Space_Station, the Dragon spacecraft supporting SpaceX’s 30th commercial resupply mission for @NASA will undock from the orbiting lab on Sunday, April 28th. Watch live beginning at 12:45 p.m. ET → nasa.gov/nasalive
Journalist @LauraLoomer confronted dirty DA Fani Willis Friday night as Fani went to a black networking event. Laura asked Fani why she’s “violated the House Judiciary Committee’s request for her communications with the J6 committee.” Fani got LOOMERED!
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Polestar still hasn't published their Q4 financials! The company said they wanted to published today.
This analysis shows that Mercedes spends approximately 1.6x more on marketing etc (selling) than on developing vehicles (R&D).
The more I look at global automakers' reported Q1 numbers the better Tesla's Q1 numbers look in comparison.
The reduction in negative EBIT in Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023 was driven by Ford's halt of BEV deliveries to dealerships which became overstocked. Since Ford sells BEVs at a loss, fewer sales reduce the accounting loss.
Since Ford provided disclosure, Ford's cumulative net losses from selling electric vehicles have exceeded $8.0 billion in the first quarter 2024.
10./Lastly: Thanks to the CFO’s Q1 earnings call comment, we were able for the first time to come up with a rough estimate of CT/M3 ramp cost.
9. Hence, this represents another source of upside for Tesla in upcoming quarters. Since launch of Cybertruck/new Model 3, we knew that Tesla would be faced with early ramp inefficiency costs.
8. Why does this matter? This is a temporary headwind driven by early production ramp inefficiencies and hence is likely to mostly or fully disappear over the next 1-2 quarters.
7. The implied impact is $113M and corresponds to a -0.6%pts (-60 basis points) auto gross margin headwind for Tesla in Q1.
6. With these two assumptions (+0.05% GM and +$50M) we can derive the CT/M3 ramp impact without any other assumptions since the rest follows simple math (see attached calculations).
5. Tesla’s guidance suggested $232M but Tesla recognized $281M. If the difference comes mostly from Autopark, Autopark’s impact was +$50M.
4. We need to adjust for the mentioned Autopark revenue impact. I estimated the Autopark revenue impact from the difference between the guided deferred revenue recognition and the actual recognition.
3. My rationale is that if auto gross margin (Auto GM) excluding CT/M3 ramp would have been significantly higher than Q4’s Auto GM I expected the CFO to quantify the impact since it would represent a quite material impact.
2. I used this information to back out the likely quantum of Cybertruck/Fremoment M3 ramp costs. I made the following assumptions: I assumed conservatively “auto margins improved slightly” to mean +0.05% (or +5 basis points).
1. Tesla’s CFO stated, “if we exclude Cybertruck and Fremont Model 3 ramp costs, the revenue from Autopark, auto margins improved slightly.”
@ejkessler413 Tesla’s overall size helps a lot since a margin is a relative metric. Such a ramp would wipe out a smaller player’s entire profit.
Based on comments from Tesla CFO on Tesla’s Q1 earnings call, I estimate that Tesla incurred a temporary negative auto margin impact of 0.6%pts or $113 million due to Cybertruck and Fremont Model 3 ramp.
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