On Iran’s strike: At Stanford, I attended a masterclass on military strategy led by a person with decades of experience, including serving at the highest levels in the military and government. One lesson he thought that I always remember was this: He asked us: “Say the US decided to attack Iraq with a new stealth jet it hadn’t used before that evaded all radars? The attack was a success. Was it strategic?” Many in the class raised their hands to say “yes, it achieved its goal”. But the professor said: “It may not have been”. Why? “Because now your adversaries know your capabilities and it’s a matter of time before they find ways around them. If this attack could be done with conventional weapons, it’s better to keep your top weapons until you need them. Using them creates a disadvantage.” My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region. The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel. Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly. Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible. Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition. Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have. Lastly, if you are a person who hates war, if you want peace, the best and only way to get there in the region is to support the Palestinian struggle for freedom, justice and dignity. There is no sustainable peace possible as long as Palestinians live under an oppressive system of apartheid.
@fadiquran Palestinians in Israel are not under apartheid, but have the same freedoms as any other Israeli. The rest of your tweet assumes too much. In the end, Iran accomplished nothing, and the only thing that was revealed was Iranian impotence
@fadiquran The phones in Washington have been ringing all night. BiBi needs more money, weapons, and guard dogs. The truth is that without the Western Sugar Daddy, Israel ceases to exist. Whereas the West would barely register the loss of Israel.
Iran spent $38,00,000 on domestic cheap mass drones to overwhelm a system & Air that spent $450,000,000 to shoot 2/3 down. Then the Iranians spent $10,000,00 on a dozen Hypersonic’s that were not intercepted & smashed Nevatim Airbase which houses Transport, Fighters, Tanker’s and was the base from which the attack on Irans Syrian Diplomatic mission was launched. Going off what occurred to US El Assad Air base after Solomani’s killing with far less missiles it’s fair to say that place is pretty fucked up. What Israel does now is to decide its fate. I fear they will not choose wisely. Irans stockpiles of newer systems in particular are substantial, dispersed a real capability. Biden is big on telling folks ‘don’t’ - He best do this now with Israel. This won’t end well.
@fadiquran What a load of crap. No wonder you Arabs lose every war 😂
This reasonement applies to both parties. ISW has already warned about strategic effects of the Iranian attack and considered the technological situation. Or do you believe that while Iran learns, Israel and his allies don't? But will Palestinians accept the 2 people 2 states? THIS is the only possible peace. The sooner it will be accepted, the sooner Palestinians will leave in peace in their State.
This is a very good assessment of what happened between Israel and Iran. Iran went first to the UNSC but didn't get any relief. They announced their attack at least a week in advance, which gave the US and Israel lots of time to react. It was in no way a surprise attack. If Iran wondered what Jordan would do, they have their answer. Reminds me of the game of chess. 😉
🚨 Yesterday's attack by Iran showcased one thing clearly: Not just America, but also the Arab leaders stand in defense of Israel. Despite the presence of not only the Iron Dome but also the 'Arab Dome', Iran managed to reach Tel Aviv directly. The Arab leaders are a threat to Palestine and the peace in the region!
@fadiquran From the people who gave the world chess......
On top of what you so brilliantly described here, the estimated cost of all of the different defense systems Israel activated was $1.8 billion U.S. dollars (4-5 billion shekels) and depleted their weapon defense systems, and due to the 99% success rate reported this morning, the attack caused little to no damage to civilian infrastructure or resulted in civilian casualties. Furthermore, not only did the response shine an even brighter spotlight on the situation in Israel and they’re ongoing campaign of genocide waged against the millions of defenseless Palestinian civilians they’ve illegally blockaded inside of gaza for the past 18 years, the most Resounding effect at this point has been how quickly and completely it exposed the blatant double standards and hypocrisy, especially when it comes to the US and Israel, while simultaneously serving to delegitimize the military response of both over the past six months, claimed to be their right of self-defense under article 51 of UN charter. If the US can claim the right to self-defense to justify their attacks on Yemen a few months back, in response to attacks on US based/personnel in Iraq, then any response to Iran’s claims of having the same right of self defense thereby justifying their attacks on Israel in response to Israel’s attack on their military personnel in Syria, that diverges in any way, shape or form, is either direct evidence that delegitimizes both or definitively proves that the U.S. and Iran are not treated equally under relevant legally binding charters or internal law. Either way- it’s not a good look for the U.S. or any of the western nations parroting the same words of condemnation, as the condemnation of one necessarily equates to the condemnation of both.