The more years I spend trading, the less often I trade, and this directly translates into better performance. High quality patterns are rare by definition - to be able to sit through market ups & downs and do absolutely nothing until they appear is one of the most valuable skills
184K Followers 93 FollowingFull-Time Futures Trader ES intraday, also swing trade ETFs 2-7 day holds. Fully transparent approach. Posts for my notes only!
3K Followers 1 FollowingProprietary trader since 1989. Trading stocks, commodities and crypto is very risky. Not suitable for most people. 90% of all traders lose money.
H&S formation, 4350 is KEY: (1) The rebound from 4352 low is corrective; in fact, from 4360, the sideway chops look like an irregular flat; (2) if so, then Friday's session may set the tone for next week--a 3rd wave would/should break the shoulder-line at 4350. (3) Future is RED
Trying to Fill the Gap: (1) it doesn't look like a 3rd of 3rd wave as of now; more likely a corrective w-2, to try to fill the gap above. (2) different indexes have different structure and cycle, and they need to sync in pace to signify a change of trend. (3) may need a day or 2
Excellent continued follow through here in #ES_F off yesterdays bear trap/failed breakdown of 4k and we are arriving at today's 4055-60 target
Ideally can base here then push to 4070 next up. 4070 is breakout point to 4130+. Rally continues until a support fails (4027 now)
The grind up in #ES_F continues, triggered by yesterdays trap/failed breakdown under 4k. As posted, almost all moves start with a trap like this. 4055-60 was my 1st target today & 5 points off so far
Spot for basing before 4070. 4038, 4027 (pullback below) remain supports
@Mach1axman Its got everything to do with charts. The charts tell you how big institutional investors are positioning themselves in response to projected fundamental data. By the time data comes out the "smart" money is already in and the only clue they were accumulating is from the chart
The more years I spend trading, the less often I trade, and this directly translates into better performance. High quality patterns are rare by definition - to be able to sit through market ups & downs and do absolutely nothing until they appear is one of the most valuable skills
Last week #ES_F spent it under ~3310 and recapturing it was the big win this week. This week ~3310 to 3385 is the range and were at resistance
Plan today: Bulls need a breakout here, targeting 3410, dip, then 3460. Loss of 3350 1st at any point opens 3310 (last chance for longs)
Have a great weekend! Red week #4 for $SPX, but the selling has been controlled and formed a bull wedge in the process
Plan next week: This wedge is the core pattern. Ideal is a pullback 1st to setup a wedge breakout targeting 3380. Warning though: 3225 must hold, or we see 3100
How you react after multiple losses in a row is critical to longevity as a trader
Beginners will overtrade, add size, and remove stops trying to make the money back quick, leading to more losses. Pro's trade less, reduce risk, troubleshoot & patiently wait for better conditions
As most know - nearly every Friday afternoon since March $SPX rallied & interesting to note it's continued weekly since the trend change on Sept 2nd
Bulls need todays strength to hold given the critical support zone we're in and ideal is for futures to close between 3270 & 3315
All week 3225 was the battleground in #ES_F, tested Monday, then many times since yesterday.What happens now determines next leg
For today: Above 3270 needed to open 3315 then 3360. Would be looking at longs on a strong push towards 3270. If 3225 goes, 3180 last shot before 3100
All week 3225 was the battleground in #ES_F, tested Monday, then many times since yesterday.What happens now determines next leg
For today: Above 3270 needed to open 3315 then 3360. Would be looking at longs on a strong push towards 3270. If 3225 goes, 3180 last shot before 3100
Today's plan in #ES_F played out well with the recapture of 3225 clipping ~3270 target, which held. Its critical from here that bulls hold 3225 on this pullback and as long as it does 3300 then 3360 is in play
Fail of 3225 and we re-test 3190, which is vulnerable to a breakdown
This morning I called for a selloff to 3225-3230 then bounce and this played out so far
If this bounce fails, we have another significant down leg coming. Bulls need to recapture lost levels to prevent this, the 1st of which is Fridays 3280 low, above which opens 3330 #ES_F $SPX
Ugly open for #ES_F futures. Bulls needed to recapture Friday's 3320-3330 to get bullish and instead it back-tested it perfectly and dumped lower
For today: Looking lower down into 3225-3230 as posted which is a good spot for a bounce. Above 3280 at any point re-opens 3330 $SPX
After a 130 point rally, the coming days in $SPX determine if a major low was set Friday or if this is a dead cat bounce
Todays Plan: Bull flag formed overnight. Breakout targets 3450. Ideal for bulls is pullback there to setup 3530. For bears: 3346 goes 1st and we revisit lows
The bounce zone is getting close for $SPX. As posted earlier the loss of 3346 which was key support today targeted 3290-3300 and we're almost there now in #ES_F. This is also the 1st test of the 50dma since June. If bulls can't bounce it there there's alot of empty space below
Important to remember just because markets are moving (like they did last week) doesn't mean you need to trade them. If you don't see a pattern that you understand and offers good risk/reward, the only place to be is the sidelines until one appears. Everything else is gambling
Now that we are consolidating (flagging) again since yesterday, the next levels up are 3540 then 3570 where I would take a stab short. This would also break $SPX *up* through 3530 resistance that has been in play from 2012 for the 1st time
Setup invalid only if we lose 3480 1st
Have a great weekend! This years biggest test is this week as $SPX nears the trendline that caused every major selloff since 2012 at 3530
Plan: Looking higher to 3530. IF bulls break it, its a decade long breakout with 3650 next up. Ideally we get a good pullback to recharge 1st
Selloffs are becoming rarer and rarer in $SPX. Instead of a big drop off the key 3530 multi-year trendline, we've just cooled off into another bullish continuation pattern (triangle)
Bulls likely to try a new high to 3540, unless 3480 goes 1st to trigger a move to 3440/3390
Have a great weekend! This years biggest test is this week as $SPX nears the trendline that caused every major selloff since 2012 at 3530
Plan: Looking higher to 3530. IF bulls break it, its a decade long breakout with 3650 next up. Ideally we get a good pullback to recharge 1st
Fantastic follow through for $SILVER rallied $2.40 from last weeks setup. Nothing needed to forecast it but a simple triangle pattern & the patience to wait for it. As usual trail stop and scale out progressively, ideally it consolidates here to recharge for the push into the 30s
After 3 weeks of consolidation, $SILVER looks ready to go again for another leg higher.
These past three weeks saw Silver coil into a perfect triangle. A breakout would see a run up into $32. If this pattern fails, next support is $24.50 and more consolidation needed
For those without a built in bearish bias, this market has been a very rare opportunity for long gains. Don't get complacent though- trail stops, lock in gains progressively and protect your capital so your well funded to take advantage of whatever conditions come next
All week I've posted a 3345 target in #ES_F and we hit it and stalled. Next up now is 3380-3400, where bears have a shot at a cooloff.Daily RSI(5) hit the 2nd highest of 2020.
If bulls lose 3300, it opens a pullback direct with below 3270 being the gate to a deeper selloff $SPX
We are only 75 points away from an ATH in #ES_F and its likely we get there.
Same drill as always - we're bull flagging since yesterday with next resistance of 3345. If we can break through there, SPX follows NDX to all-time highs. My ideal swing short zone remains 3600 $SPX
It took its time but finally getting the explosive move in #natgas posted about on June 29th. This move was caused by the breakout of a multi-year bull wedge as shown below which ended its downtrend. Target remains $2.30 - $2.40 but getting vulnerable to a retrace here at 2.15
#Natgas Big Picture View: Its been locked in a relentless downtrend since Nov 2018 but there's a setup for a major reversal brewing with the recent strength - were building a multi-year bull wedge and a breakout at $1.87 would take this back to $2.30+, ending the downtrend