50cent @fivezeroooo

@DaniWorldwide keep rugging bud, you're cancer to the space

@ibidbottom @PancakeSwap @cz_binance It is impossible to lock our tokens until $POLYAGENT is listed on @PancakeSwap. That is how the mechanics of @fourdotmemezh bep-20 tokens work. Once our token migrates, it will be listed automatically on Pancakeswap and we will lock our supply.

The Polymarket Builders’ ecosystem is exploding in popularity. Over 116 projects across 14 categories… which are your favorite?

“Check the Polymarket” — Tom Brady

JUST IN: "I'm watching this Polymarket ticker go by, and it's so tempting" — Sam Altman

Genny run.

Polymarket @Polymarket

a year ago

@shayne_coplan Generational run.

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Interesting. Give this a read, they bring up some great points.

PJ @Prithvir12

a year ago

Prediction Markets need Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) TLDR: - Modern portfolio theory showed investors how to balance assets by correlation, not just returns. - Prediction markets don't yet have that toolkit. - Event parlays, correlation matrices, and portfolio-level

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Build build build.

I think for Prediction markets to scale, we need a little more clarity around exactly what we would like to do with the value of truth whilst there’s still a price on them. Whether it’s to trade them like they’re assets themselves or the underlying representation of another asset. E.g, are Yes/No shares their own assets or are they the underlying representation of an asset like “Will Trump Fire Lisa Cook” ? For example, Stocks are their own assets. They’re pegged directly to a company’s valuation and we have financial systems designed around them such as Stock trading themselves but also Options Trading where you can Put/Call options however you see fit in that instance. Memes/Tokens are also another asset class that stand on their own, they’re underlying representations of different narratives for sure but fundamentally, they’re their own assets and then mechanisms such as Leverage, Swaps, etc are applied to them through different exchange platforms. The question we have to ask ourselves is, are we approaching Yes/No values as independent assets or an existing mechanism on the value of truth - just like Options Trading exist on the value of Stocks. I believe clarifying this can allow us develop more efficient solutions to the problems we currently have, ranging across Liquidity, Tools, User Experience, etc. Using Options Trading as an example, the underlying stock serves as a fundamental asset basis - with Prediction Markets, the market topics serve as the underlying asset. Trump firing Lisa Cook, Mr Beast raising 40m, War strikes, etc are all individual topics with values with respect to those who are concerned. People within the Fed or have large businesses favored by Lisa Cook’s administration are definitely concerned about whether she’s fired or not. Mr Beast, his audience and sponsors are concerned about his raising goal, and companies who sell weapons, people caught in war zone environments are also definitely concerned about whether a missile is going to strike a particular location. Just like how people involved in Tesla or Nvidia ecosystem are concerned about what happens, which is then reflected in the stock value. These market topics definitely hold value that involves a lot of major stakeholders, it’s up to us as contributors to the ecosystem to design systems as efficient as possible, in order to scale Prediction Markets to standing as its own asset class ⇨ A mechanism for Trading with Unresolved Truths as the underlying asset. I mean, “a mechanism for Trading on the truth”. That sounds like something everybody knows but it goes much deeper than that. There’s still a lot of ambiguity within UX designs, Liquidity Provision and potential features to add and that is because we haven’t arrived at a consensus on what specific category these assets should fall into. Inevitably tho, we will reach a threshold entropy value at some point that’d help us forcefully decide what it needs to be if we don’t make a decision ahead. Nevertheless, it’s very interesting times ahead for the Prediction Markets ecosystem and we at Polyfactual will be doing our best to contribute to that to the best of our abilities.

How accurate is Polymarket? 89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution. Fun fact. 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.

It's time.

Polymarket @Polymarket

a year ago

It's time.

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@TrumpKol Thanks for the feedback, we're on it. We will be putting together a clear roadmap for the community this week.

@DarkPancakes Thanks for the feedback. Mods have been removed and a dedicated mod will be added to keep the community clean.

Trade earnings. Only on Polymarket.

Minor fixes + updates that we just rolled out: - Improved reasoning so Polyagent generates more accurate responses - Fixed minor UI bugs across the app - Fixed authentication issues some users were facing when accessing old chats Smart tracking and news are currently in development and will be available very soon.

Week 2 of Polyagent is just beginning and momentum continues to build. The response since launch has been incredible and it is clear there is strong demand for AI in prediction markets. This week we will be rolling out Smart Tracking and integrated News. These features are built to make it easier to follow markets, spot trends, and stay ahead of the curve. Several big announcements and updates will also be shared this week as we enter the next phase of Polyagent.

All spam links in the community have been cleared. If you’re interested in helping out as a mod, reply to this post. We’ll be adding some today.

We’ve seen a lot of questions about whether Polyagent will be token-gated. For now, the platform will remain free and open to everyone. The goal is to make Polyagent as accessible as possible while the ecosystem grows. That said, holding the token will come with its own set of benefits and utilities, which we’ll be sharing more about soon.

The next wave of adoption will be built on prediction markets.

Polymarket’s cumulative trading volume is just over $17 billion to date. If that doesn’t convince you prediction markets are the future, nothing will. This is the beginning of a new financial paradigm. As more of the world’s biggest events get priced in real time, prediction markets won’t just rival traditional platforms, they’ll surpass them. The scale of opportunity here is unlike anything we’ve seen.