Hrant Mikaelian @hrant_m
Statistician, interdisciplinary social science researcher covering from Political science and History to Economy and Demography. Specializing in South Caucasus. kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781 Tbilisi to Yerevan Joined October 2010-
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War in Gaza - six months later. The military results are very modest, while diplomatic consequences for Israel are arguably devastating. Israel will struggle for decades to improve its diplomatic conditions. kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781/po…
How would opening the Turkish border impact the Armenian economy? We ask @hrant_m and @OmarKadkoy 🇦🇲🇹🇷 youtube.com/watch?v=GccW6s…
Note the language on this Azerbaijani state media post about the Armenian position in Nerkin Hand. AZ officials and AZ state media are using the term “şərti sərhəd,” which means “conditional border,” more and more. AZ rhetoric is that Armenia doesn’t have sovereign territory.
#WeekinReview - 2/11/24 w/@hrant_m - #Yerevan City Politics - @presidentaz “Elections” - #Armenia-#Georgia Strategic Partnership - Latest MPG Poll Review Hosts: @HovikYerevan @qubriq #Artsakh #NagornoKarabakh youtu.be/LlVbesqViGQ
🔔 The new edition of #CSSAnalyses in Security Policy, authored by Hrant Mikaelian (@hrant_m) and Jeronim Perović, is available! Read the full analysis by clicking the link below ⬇ css.ethz.ch/en/publication…
🔔 Eine neue Ausgabe der Serie #CSSAnalyses zur #Sicherheitspolitik ist jetzt verfügbar! Die Autoren sind Hrant Mikaelian (@hrant_m) und Jeronim Perović. Zur vollständigen Analyse geht es hier ⬇ ow.ly/TRCv50QiE8V
Still chilling to see Stepanakert as an ethnically cleansed ghost town. More Azerbaijani flags than people.
Lachin corridor that was meant to be
#WeekinReview - 11/12/2023 w/@hrant_m Topics: - Armenian Foreign Policy Vectors - Latest MPG Poll Result Analysis - Armenian Economy and 2024 Budget Hosts: @HovikYerevan, @qubriq youtu.be/YoUEe79_HEo?si…
“The world should know that the Artsakh page cannot and should not be considered closed”. Karabakh Armenians hold a silent march in Yerevan.
Shahin Rzaev tried to find at least one person who fled Kapan in 1987 while working on the topic with Tatul Hakobyan. Failed to do that. P.S. "There is no sufficient evidence but I will use words like "pogrom" and "ethnic cleansing"."
Estimated civilian deaths share in the recent conflicts: Israel/Gaza 80.5-83% Ukraine/Russia 3.5-7.5% Syria - 32% Detailed (including combatant deaths) - kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781/po…
On Dagestan pogrom and revolt - political and socio-economic reasons - and how the authorities will likely behave in future. kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781/po…
Azerbaijan officially developing its own place names for "Western Azerbaijan" - that is, the Republic of Armenia
Azerbaijan officially developing its own place names for "Western Azerbaijan" - that is, the Republic of Armenia
🇦🇲🇦🇿 🇷🇺 voted in favor of a resolution calling for a humanitarian truce in Gaza 🇺🇦🇬🇪 abstained
11 steps to improve situation for refugees from Artsakh and watchdoging remaining Armenian cultural heritage there. kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781/po…
(4) Add to that human losses: 36 thousand dead in 1991-4 and 10 thousand in 2020-23 on both sides combined, including 33 thousand Azeris (+Afghanis and Syrians) and 13 thousand Armenians and economic collapse of the beginning of 90s - this is the real cost of maximalism.
(3) 550 thousand of Azeris, who were forced to leave their homes in 1988-93 and 390 thousand of Armenians, who left their homes in 1988-90, should also be considered part of this cost, including 140 thousand of Artsakh Armenians in 2020-23.
(2) 28,652 million USD loss in current prices (at time of spending) and approximately 35 billion USD in 2023 prices. So, not +0.8 or +3%, but -42% of GDP is economic cost for Azerbaijan. Also, given that the 1990s war was also started by Azerbaijan,
(1) Russian experts estimated Azerbaijan's gain from Artsakh occupation at 0.8% GDP currently and 3% long-term. In reality, this won't work while the local indigenous population is leaving. But I've calculated Azerbaijan's excess military expenses since 2006 and they account for
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@SecBlinken Every gravestone and church the Az regime destroys with absolute impunity is your legacy. Congrats.
Well, at least they no longer claim "by the end of the year." Excuse my skepticism, but the proof of the pudding and all that… A distinct and substantial change in rhetoric by all sides, for example. #Armenia #Azerbaijan
"If Azerbaijan shows political will, a peace treaty may be concluded within the next 15 days": Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan
Nagorno-Karabakh will be the greenest ethnically cleansed territory 🥰
It was written by someone without honor and conscience. All of you will be held accountable for your dirty mouths one day.
Lieutenant General Manvel Grigoryan, who was once notorious for his strictness and ruthlessness in the military, watched his veterancy career wither away as he joined the ranks of corrupt politicians, eventually becoming one of them... ⬇️
The history of the fall of the Serbian Krajina and the recent events in Artsakh share many similarities. It's unfortunate that we haven't learned from the lessons of history.
According to a new MPG poll in Armenia, 46.6 percent of respondents want the country to struggle for Karabakh independence. Meanwhile, 40 percent believe Karabakh refugees should be integrated into Armenia. Source via this podcast with @hrant_m. youtu.be/YoUEe79_HEo?si…
In the same podcast, Hrant Mikaelian also notes that economic growth in Armenia is driven by re-export of goods to Russia following Ukraine sanctions. I think that’s not disputed by anyone though the government tries to convince otherwise.
Driving Armenia's economy at present, it's why Yerevan will find it very difficult or even impossible to break away from Moscow. And we haven't gotten to energy, railways, and migrant workers. Is Armenia a logistical hub in Putin's war against Ukraine commonspace.eu/opinion/opinio…
#WeekinReview - 11/12/2023 w/@hrant_m Topics: - Armenian Foreign Policy Vectors - Latest MPG Poll Result Analysis - Armenian Economy and 2024 Budget Hosts: @HovikYerevan, @qubriq youtu.be/YoUEe79_HEo?si…
@hrant_m I agree, but I just don't agree with the comparison of this animal with Petain. At least marshal had the old merits.
evnreport.com/politics/baku-… Worked on this for months, relatively happy with how it turned out.
Shahin Rzaev tried to find at least one person who fled Kapan in 1987 while working on the topic with Tatul Hakobyan. Failed to do that. P.S. "There is no sufficient evidence but I will use words like "pogrom" and "ethnic cleansing"."
A journalist poses a foolish question to Artsakh's President Samvel Shahramanyan: "Who handed over Artsakh?" It's clear they're well aware of the answer. They just shift blame from the guilty to the innocent.
@TurkayGasimli Yea, I am curious to see all the “Azerbaijan will become more democratic after it retakes Karabakh” say when Azerbaijan will actually remain the totalitarian State it is…
@CesareBarberis There are some “well-educated” propagandists arguing that the reason why AZ is not a democracy is the conflict with Armenia and the occupied territories. What will be their next excuse? They will need to be really creative.
What causes me disgust are: - Educated and seemingly moderate Azeris, that just end up just being fascists with manners. - Western analysts who whitewash Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 for money. They >chose< to support this fascist regime, de facto becoming part of its system of oppression.
Enough. I don’t want to see this hell anymore… I want to leave…
Can the US work toward #GlobalGoals while also arming Azerbaijan? Will @realDonaldTrump @RonDeSantis @SenatorTimScott @VivekGRamaswamy @GovChristie @Mike_Pence @NikkiHaley @AsaHutchinson @DougBurgum commit to ending all US military aid to Azerbaijan? theamericanconservative.com/end-american-m…
Now you can be a witness how Armenians who lived for thousands of years in #Artsakh / #Karabakh are forced to leave their homeland. #Azerbaijan is finishing its genocidal plan while the international community is "deeply concerned". Now you can see how history is happening
Hey @vonderleyen any updates? How`s life?
The EU is turning to trustworthy energy suppliers. Azerbaijan is one of them. With today's agreement, we commit to expanding the Southern Gas Corridor, to double gas supplies from Azerbaijan to the EU. This is good news for our supplies of gas this winter and beyond.
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