a long, meandering series of stonk thoughts, plus an annotated chart.
tldr:
Stonk is like any coin that goes from 0 to 300m in a vacuum when there’s zero liquidity in early bulls, and then btc rolls over - it’s the first place people take profit and cut.
The coin is barely over a month old, and supply distribution on any new coin is uneven and needs time to spread out and scale. What will happen with Stonk is super predictable - just needs the recipe of “time” plus “btc higher”, and the distribution and base built out will link up to its buyback+burn and lack of overhang (no VCs dumping supply), and it can explode.
long format thoughts:
-i'm bullish on stonk to do really well this cycle, and its top eco coins to do really well.
-this chart looks horrific devoid of context. it's a low-volume grinddown
-the entire onchain space, regardless of platform or eco (RH chain, pons, long, stonk, pump) priced in BTC impulsing into the 90's, but got: a stultifyingly boring/agonizing multiweek fakeout-laden grinddown to range lows, with a wick below on existential fears for btc
-in low-vol grinddowns, esp in early bull markets, where liquidity is very start-stop and sputtering, the last thing to pump is the first thing to get sold down. stonk went from zero (fair launch!) to 300m in such conditions. the below chart is predictable
-stonk, being a new coin, scarcely over a month old, was fair-launched in public at near-0 mcap, and distribution on any coin like this will be very uneven. it's the pain of egalitarian launches that let anyone get as much of the pie as they want, early
-brand new coins don't have the benefit of many months of trading to create proper market structure or areas of support. there is ZERO structure on this chart
-like all of onchain, stonk needs BTC to lead the market higher. stonk was on a rocket ship until BTC rolled over on sept 21, and looked to stabilize itself until BTC got giga-zapped by "all of cryptography is imminently broken!!" fud, breaking down to below range lows in the days prior to 10/10
-when the liquidity tide goes out, any/all stuff endemic to crypto gets amplified and called out with fanciful narratives and conspiracy. we saw all sorts of that strife on the tl in every single eco - stonk wasn't immune to that. grifters/liq-fragmenters/opportunists are free to participate on stonk fun - it's not a gated community. stonk just simply offers novel mechanisms and tokenomics to incentive longer-term holding and PVE, but doesn't filter participants from setting up familiar traps endemic to onchain, historically
-any attempts for stonk to overcome its sept-21-onward downtrend were fighing against the supremely powerful/undeniable physics of "brand new coin + insane uptrend to 300m = infinite people with large bags up massively that have an incentive to sell to new participants and create better distribution", and the only thing that could bandage over that happening was a continued BTC uptrend beyond 87k, which we didn't get (we got the opposite)
-with better distribution, and eventually a base built out somewhere between here and the fair value gap, stonk should hypothetically see a new, and more sustainable/sturdy uptrend once BTC goes above 87k
-coins on stonk that have real/burgeoning communities (anything in the top 5-10) are poised to show explosive strength, and them doing well will be agonizingly obvious in hindsight.
-my bets for biggest outperformance on stonk continue to be zcat, sndk (sand kitten) and knots
-if zcat can't do well, no other new memecoin can. zcat hit cross-community escape velocity on ct for the first time since wif. the only missing ingredient is time + btc continuation. if zcat can't run to 800m-1b minimum, i don't think anything will ever cross that threshhold again, barring some sort of 'the president did X' level generational scam
-sand kitten is in and out of the top spot to be sol's #2 biggest stock-paired memecoin, and has a burgeoning community + infinite memes spraying out on the tl, and i think it can flirt with the top spot
-knots is a pure play yielding stonk, and could act as an oscillator alongside stonk up/downtrends, acting as a bond with extremely high yield
-onchain volume is down massively across all chains since sept 21, and i don't think it's possible to derive much meaningful signal on platform tokens until btc is in a sustained uptrend above 87k
-coins that have sustained community/action on the tl and haven't gone to stone cold zero during this protracted downtrend are critical to watch
-there's a case to be made that stonk re-enters an uptrend above 125m, but i won't feel confident in an uptrend confirmed until 150m, and there could be an argument to be made "180m+", but the lack of structure makes this more of a vibe thing than anything else, with an eye toward "how does rev look" when BTC is back above 87k
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