Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppcl
Jay is Senior Market Analyst at https://t.co/TygY2sgw6q and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA. Illinois, USA Joined August 2009-
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Stuff I follow is bullish so I am bullish. BUT history reminds me NOT to be a perma-bull. I can’t pick tops and bottoms, but I can scale exposure up and down based on perceived risk. Decided a long time ago to never willfully ride a 40%+ bear market to the bottom fully invested.
Jay’s Trading Maxim #115: One key to long-term investment success is to avoid self-inflicted wounds (i.e., if you shoot yourself in the foot, it’s hard to take the next step).
No predictions BUT keeping a close eye on this one. sentimentrader
As long as tech sector remains in an uptrend I keep riding. Once the trend changes so will my position.
As long as tech sector remains in an uptrend I keep riding. Once the trend changes so will my position.
Precisely. The yield curve IS an important factor IMO. But it IS NOT the ONLY factor!! FWIW, seven of nine factors I follow are bullish.
"Follow price and charts." Arguably a phrase that ought to be added automatically to the end of most market related tweets.
No predictions but DO NOT go to sleep on commodities IMO.
Not what I would call a "fun" or "easy" read. And nothing is guaranteed to work forever. That said, if you have the time, this is worthwhile. Educational and actionable.
% of SPY stocks above 50-day MA crosses above 90%. Since 2000, SPY higher 98% of the time 12 mos. later. Median gain +13.8%. A "sure thing?" Nope. An item for the favorable side of the ledger? Yep.
A terrific summation of the realities of what it takes to be a successful trader! (HINT: It IS NOT easy and requires great discipline. Sometimes the "hard work" involves doing nothing if doing nothing is what's called for).
No one is always right. That said, given the rigor and objective nature of work at NDR, I find this worthy of note.
...a 50% bond bear retrace could take TLT to $130, so a bullish trade is reasonable. BUT the stuff I follow suggests a longer-term rising rate enviroment, so not looking to lock in 4% yield for the next 30 years.
FWIW (and this may not make sense to some), I may "trade" the long side of long-term treasuries, but I will not buy-and-hold long-term treasuries...
The really tricky part is learning that not every squiggle of every indicator or oscillator actually "means something." It's awfully easy to "see something" that isn't actually there.
A strong rebound in Transports. Just for the record, not everyone is surprised. sentimentrader
2023 has been a good year for using seasonality to find opportunities - for investors AND for shorter-term traders. A nice unsurprising run in biotech for example. sentimentrader
@eschunk8 I will... I’ve come too far & learnt too much to walk away from it. Just gotta refine!
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There is enormous indebtedness at every level of the economy from the Federal government down, so there are all kinds of these chickens everywhere.
If the Fed holds rates high through June, more and more debt-laden chickens will come home to roost.
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