Good morning with good news: Goldman Sachs (not the Sierra Club) forecasts that battery prices will fall 40% from 2023 to 2025! So, EVs (no subsidies) will be cheaper than ICE in 2025 in some markets. See BYD Dolphin for 23k in Mexico now! h/t @drvolts goldmansachs.com/intelligence/p…
@johnrhanger @drvolts And CATL & BYD, says they will be selling batteries for $56 kWh midway through 2024. cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/cat…
@johnrhanger @drvolts You’ll get the minus 40% by H2_24
@johnrhanger @drvolts And two days ago CATL announced they expect to HALVE the costs in thier LFP chemistry batteries this year... If the biggest battery producer halves the cost of one of thier biggest chemistries, I call major forcing event.
I am thinking 2025 is going to be the tipping point for EVs where it just becomes obvious on the cost / benefit decision for pragmatic EV drivers. When that happens I think we are going to see a significant growth in EV adoption. Takes some time for these cheaper batteries to make their way through the supply chain. That plus newer cheaper models coming out are going to further accelerate the adoption. Let alone the increased volume of EV chargers we will see by 2025, removing more of the range anxiety for trips. The future looks bright. Takes
@johnrhanger @drvolts It's got to be annoying for Americans seeing the rest of world already getting EVs under 25k while your poorest tax payers are subsidising EVs for the richest in the country by $7,500 per car.
@johnrhanger @drvolts How many times have we seen this movie? Institute high wage, safety, and environmental standards for manufacturing in the U.S., and then flood the market with cheap Chinese imports. I know how it ends: cjshaver.com/bl0289/
@johnrhanger @drvolts Get scared id goldnan predicts it
@johnrhanger @drvolts I read an article in the IET magazine (UK IEEE) predicting this in 2018. EVs with 2,000 moving parts are inherently cheaper than ICEs with 22,000 moving parts. I've been keeping my diesel going ever since to reach the transition.