Mike Castle @mike_castle2

Commodity Market Analyst at @StoneX_Official. Tweets are my own and do not necessarily represent StoneX positions, strategies, or opinions. Joined February 2025

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American Ag Network @AmericanAgNet

3 days ago

Grains are mixed to end the week while we also examine the fertilizer markets with Mike Castle (@mike_castle2) from @StoneX_Official in our @markettalkag Midday Commentary. americanagnetwork.com/2025/09/26/mix…

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 days ago

Nice weekly US #wheat sales as well @ 19.8 mbu; cumulative #wheat sales now @ 501 mbu, up 22.1% year-on-year. A breakdown by class— White: 7.2 mbu (6-wk high) HRS: 5.5 mbu (9-wk high) HRW: 4.1 mbu (3-wk high) SRW: 3.3 mbu (10-wk high) Durum: -0.4 mbu (7-month low) #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 days ago

Monster US #corn sales @ 75.7 mbu, nearly 5 mbu above the top-end estimate, with Mexico accounting for nearly half of the total. Biggest weekly #corn sales seen since late October ’24; cumulative sales now @ 1.014 bbu, up 74.7% year-over-year. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

7 days ago

#China's August #urea exports hit a nearly 2-year high @ 797k MT, larger than their previous 13 months combined. The loosening of China's export restrictions in recent months has played a major role in global #urea prices correcting lower. #fertilizer #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

7 days ago

#China’s official August import data shows #Brazil continuing to dominate their #soybean import market while setting a new record for the month @ 10.485 MMT. First time in history that China’s #soybean imports from Brazil have surpassed 10 MMT in four consecutive months. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

36% of US #soybean areas are now experiencing some level of drought. That's up another 14% week-over-week and up 33% from the start of Aug, highlighting the poor finish to the season. The 6-week change map shows the hardest hit areas in the Delta and Eastern Midwest. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

Big export inspections across the board on this morning's report, with #corn, #soybeans, and #wheat all coming in above their high-end estimates. Corn: 59.5 mbu (top est 59.1 mbu) Beans: 29.6 mbu (top est 26.8 mbu) Wheat: 27.7 mbu (top est 22 mbu) #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

A follow-up on #corn acres: Aug FSA: 96.524M USDA: 97.224M Sep FSA: 97.254M (+0.700M / +0.7% m/o/m) USDA: 98.728M (+1.504M / +1.5% m/o/m) After their Sep increase, #USDA is now further above FSA (+1.504M / +1.55%) than they were in Aug (+0.730M / +0.76%). #oatt

Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

The huge rise in #corn acreage can't be explained away by now incorporating FSA data in Aug. Below is the last 20 yrs of changes to #corn acres from FSA incorporation to final. Biggest ever was 2012's +0.345M. We're not at final yet, but today's +1.474M stands by itself. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

That monster #corn acreage number from #USDA forced me to do some digging... Today's 98.728M is not technically an all-time high, but you'd have to go back to the 1930's for similar levels. Highest since 1936's 101.959M. All-time high set in 1932 at 113.024M. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

22% of US #soybean areas are now experiencing some level of drought. That's up 6% week-over-week and up 19% from where we sat at the start of August, as shown below. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

11-week low in US #wheat sales at only 11.2 mbu--a function of Russian #wheat offers getting cheaper? Despite the slowdown, cumulative '25/'26 sales now total 467 mbu, their strongest at this time in 5 years. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Lackluster first week of the new marketing year with #corn sales of only 21.3 mbu, but the record pace coming in keeps us comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach #USDA's 2.875 bbu target. #oatt

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American Ag Network @AmericanAgNet

3 weeks ago

There are some items to watch in the global fertilizer markets right now, including tensions with Russia and the warming relationship between China and India, according to Mike Castle (@mike_castle2) with @StoneX_Official. americanagnetwork.com/2025/09/10/upd…

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Given the escalation with Russia, feels like a good time for a reminder of what's at stake if we do see some sort of sanctions/tariffs. Russia has become our top supplier of both #urea and #UAN; cutting off this flow would be a major hit to domestic N supply. #fertilizer #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Dryness since early Aug has cut both US #corn & #soybean conditions by 5%. That’s smaller than avg for corn (-6%) but worse for beans (-3%), fitting Aug’s key role in bean development. Will be interesting to see the impact reflected in Friday’s #USDA report. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

With new crop sales of 83.3 mbu to close out the '24/'25 marketing year, we are officially entering the '25/'26 marketing year with the highest #corn commitments on record at 822 mbu. That's up 186% year-over-year and 2.1% above the previous record from '21/'22. #oatt

Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a month ago

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 weeks ago

With a second consecutive 3% week-on-week increase, Argentina's #wheat conditions now sit at 79% G/E, nearly 3 times higher than the previous 5YA (28%) at this time and marking the highest of any week since at least 2018. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 weeks ago

Anyone following the US #phosphate market knows we've had a supply issue for several years now. July US import data was released this morning, showing the weakest back-to-back month stretch of phosphate imports in 10 years... That does not help the outlook. #fertilizer #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 weeks ago

Today's 4% week-on-week decline in national #soybean conditions (now @ 65% G/E) makes the state level changes in August match up a bit more clearly with the observed rainfall during the month. #oatt

Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a month ago

Today's 4% week-on-week decline in national #soybean conditions (now @ 65% G/E) makes the state level changes in August match up a bit more clearly with the observed rainfall during the month. #oatt https://t.co/mCYCzol80x