MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

Joined January 2017

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

12 months ago

While stocks are hitting record highs, there's an another trend worth noting: corporate insider buying has recently plummeted to new lows. source: Sentimentrader

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The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded to 4%, while oil prices are surging amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The stock market seems to show limited reaction to these shocks under the prevailing soft landing expectations.

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

The IMF's analysis typically aims to provide a nuanced view, suggesting that while trade policies, tariffs, and subsidies do have an impact, they are often secondary to larger economic forces at play within each country's borders. imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

a year ago

Fed governor Chris Waller tells CNBC: The Aug inflation numbers last week suggest core PCE rose 0.14%. If you annualize the last four months, that leaves inflation running at less than 1.8% "The inflation data we got during blackout pushed me" in the direction of favoring 50.

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

Fed's "higher for longer" stance remains. Dot plot shows long-run rate up from 2.5% to 2.9%. While neutral rate's exact level is unknown, we likely won't return to the ultra low rate era. With R* possibly near 3%, 10-year Treasury yield may have limited downside potential. #Fed

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

Market expects more Fed rate cuts than the Fed's dot plot.For 2024: markets anticipate 3 cuts vs. Fed's 2. In 2025, markets expect 7 cuts, vs. Fed’s 4. This leads to a stark rate gap in the end-2025: markets see 2.85%, well below the Fed's 3.325% and even the longer run 2.9%.

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

After Sept's 50bps rate cut, Fed's path for 2024? Dot plot reveals split: 9 officials favor ≤75bps cuts by year-end, 10 prefer ≥100bps. This even divide suggests potential volatility in pace & size of future cuts. A 'stop-and-go' easing cycle ahead? #FedWatch

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zerohedge @zerohedge

a year ago

Fed rate cut cheat sheet

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

Taylor Rule suggests 1-2 rate cuts reasonable, aligning with market expectations. But key question: Is 2% still the neutral rate? I lean towards 25bps cut as baseline. 50bps might signal excessive economic weakness. #FedWatch

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MoreThanMacro @morethanmacro

a year ago

Unprecedented market split just 3 days before Sept FOMC, with no major economic data due. ~50/50 odds for 25bps vs 50bps cut. Such divergence in rate expectations this close to a meeting hasn't occurred in this cycle. #FedWatch

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

a year ago

Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the August CPI to have been relatively mild, as was July. The median of these forecasts has the core CPI up 0.21%, which would hold the 12-month rate at 3.2%. Headline CPI is seen decelerating to 2.5%.