If someone told you only a few weeks ago that Iran would be at war, you would have guessed Israel, the US, or perhaps Saudi Arabia; not Pakistan. It is very, very hard to keep in mind that we're not good at predicting & even harder to incorporate it into a general policy.
Professor Nassim Taleb, This new conflagration is really perplexing. How do you really interpret it in the complex geopolitical context? Particularly, how is it related to the Middle East crisis? Does it have any connection with the military coup in Pakistan, which led to removal of Imran Khan?
@nntaleb Geostrategically Iran is a bit like the Germany of the middle east: in the middle of everything with multiple sources of instability and conflict along its borders
@nntaleb If someone has told me that a few weeks ago Pakistan would be attacking Iran because Iran had previously attacked an Israeli facility operating *inside* Pakistan which had the approval/knowledge of the Pakistani government.. I would never have believed you.
@nntaleb Or that Argentina would finally see the light and re-embrace Capitalism. x.com/elonmusk/statu…
@nntaleb Or that Argentina would finally see the light and re-embrace Capitalism. x.com/elonmusk/statu…
@nntaleb Lol, following the orders of the big boss.
@nntaleb such a great point If USA gets stronger it's a problem
@nntaleb As Daniel Kahneman said, "The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising."