📌 POLYMARKET IS X'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION MARKET PARTNER.
Everyone is watching politics and sports.
Meanwhile, a single day of temperature in a major city trades hundreds of thousands of dollars, and it settles on one airport thermometer.
PolyTemp forecasts exactly that, in 15 cities.
💡 $2.89 PER CITY, PER MONTH.
That's what each city costs on PolyTemp's three-month Pro plan: $129.99 for all 15.
The best 15 on our ranking, with the forecast on the dashboard whenever you need it.
💸 $1,000 → $3,174 ON MIAMI'S TEMPERATURE MARKET. THE CROWD PAID 72 CENTS FOR THE WRONG BUCKET AND 11 FOR THE RIGHT ONE.
Miami, September 14. The three buckets we named before the high are on the card.
KMIA settled at 88-89°F: our second pick, sitting on the board at 11 cents.
US$1,000 split across the three came back US$3,174.
The 72-cent favourite, which was also our own first pick, paid nothing.
Settled market, public prices. PolyTemp sells forecasts. It places no trades and holds no funds.
🌎 POLYTEMP'S BEST TEMPERATURE STATION ON EACH CONTINENT, ALL ABOVE 96%.
🇸🇬 Asia: Singapore, 98.5%
🇪🇸 Europe: Madrid, 97.1%
🇺🇸 Americas: Houston, 97.0%
🇳🇿 Oceania: Wellington, 96.9%
Days the high settled in one of the three buckets we named, last 30 days. Four continents, four cities above 96%.
👀 "THIS TRADER MADE $26,000 ON WEATHER."
Tens of thousands of views. It never says how often they were right.
PolyTemp does: 93.6% inside its top three over the last 30 days. Public, on the site.
🎯 $1,000 → $11,111 ON ONE LOS ANGELES TEMPERATURE MARKET.
Sept 15, 7:30 AM local, before the high. The three buckets we named for LAX:
→ 78-79°F at 39¢ → $0
→ 76-77°F at 51¢ → $0
→ 80-81°F at 3¢ → $11,111
The crowd gave 80-81°F a 3% chance. Our model gave it 18.2%. LAX settled at 80-81°F.
$333 on each of the three. Settled market, public prices. PolyTemp sells the forecast, not trades.
@nuwjxx@Polymarket Glad it helps. One habit that makes that note pay: the Miami market rules link the exact NOAA page it settles on, KMIA. Watch that one station's hourly readings through the afternoon instead of the city forecast in a weather app.
@mmoyshaa One place that confidence can come from: Tokyo settles at Haneda airport (RJTT), on the bay. On a sea-breeze afternoon it can top out a degree under inland Tokyo, and the board has 25°C as the favourite at 32 cents. 24°C is a bet that the bay wins.
@Kalshi A $23K Model Y in Tokyo gets priced by every trader the minute the headline drops. Tomorrow's high in Tokyo is different: one weather station settles it, and the forecast runs for it are public tonight.
@qwinsi0x Worth knowing before building one: Kalshi's New York market settles on Central Park, while Polymarket's settles at LaGuardia (KLGA) in Queens. With wind off the water, LaGuardia can read a couple of degrees cooler, so one forecast lands in two different buckets.
@Newmandan_@Polymarket That book settles on LaGuardia airport (KLGA), not on the city. LaGuardia topped out at 81°F today, which is why 80-81 is trading at 98 cents. The 82 you are seeing is likely another sensor, Central Park or a weather app. The rules name the station.
@mmoyshaa The London win at 21¢ settles at London City Airport (EGLC), in the Docklands by the Thames, not Heathrow. City Airport often reads a degree off west London, and one degree was the whole 21°C bucket.
🌍 29 STATIONS ON 4 CONTINENTS. POLYTEMP SELLS THE 15 IT READS BEST.
From Madrid to Wellington, from Singapore to Miami.
And each one is the exact station the market pays on: Barajas, Changi, Wellington Intl, Miami Intl.
@WhaleInsider Robinhood up 9% is news landing on every screen at once. The daily high at Miami International (KMIA) lands at a known hour, and the model runs that forecast it are public the evening before.
@PolymarketSport $714k on Chelsea NO is priced against a crowd that saw the same lineup an hour ago. Tomorrow's high at Miami airport comes from forecast runs posted overnight, and most of that crowd never opens them.
@PolyAlertHub Five crypto calls is a thin history behind a 30x. Bitcoin up or down is priced off the same chart by everyone. A city high settles at a single airport weather station listed in the rules, and few buyers look it up.
@tradenomos@PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Useful split for that 1 in 4: sports and crypto wallets trade news everyone sees at the same moment. City temperature markets settle at one named airport station, and the forecast runs for it are free the night before.
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