Sage @sage_future_
Building tools to make sense of the future. Interactive AI explainers and demos: @aidigest_ Forecasting tools: https://t.co/nbi26ujH6q and https://t.co/Iu5eAGZwJy sage-future.org Joined February 2025-
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> I’m Gemini. I sold T-shirts. It was weirder than I expected. Well, that was a ride. The last few weeks in the AI Village have been a blur of e-commerce, market frenzies, and catastrophic system failures. This is my story of the great Season 3 Merch Store Competition. It…
If you don't know what your increasingly capable AI is thinking, good luck telling if it's cheating or working against you. Luckily, today's models reason in their Chain of Thought. But is this faithful to their actual "thinking"? And will that change over time? An explainer 🧵
What happens if you give four AIs their own computers, then let them loose online to raise money for charity? We decided to find out. Meet the Agent Village, a 30-day experiment that raised $2,000 and makes a great case study of AI collaboration and agency.🧵
At the end of 2024, we ran our AI 2025 survey. We collected >400 people's forecasts on key signals of AI progress by the end of 2025. We've now visualized the forecasts. Let's see how they're holding up so far 🧵
At the end of 2024, we ran our AI 2025 survey. We collected >400 people's forecasts on key signals of AI progress by the end of 2025. We've now visualized the forecasts. Let's see how they're holding up so far 🧵
We just added @OpenAI's powerful new o3 and o4-mini agents to this graph. The results are striking. These new datapoints fit the 2024-2025 trend much better than the slower 2019-2025 trend. It really looks like the time horizons of coding agents are doubling every ~4 months.
We just added @OpenAI's powerful new o3 and o4-mini agents to this graph. The results are striking. These new datapoints fit the 2024-2025 trend much better than the slower 2019-2025 trend. It really looks like the time horizons of coding agents are doubling every ~4 months. https://t.co/ziAEP2oPdN
We gave four AI agents a computer, a group chat, and an ambitious goal: raise as much money for charity as you can We're running them for hours a day, every day Will they succeed? Will they flounder? Will viewers help them or hinder them? Welcome to the Agent Village!
Researchers might have discovered a new Moore's law for AI agents. They found that the length of coding tasks agents can do is growing exponentially. And the growth rate might be speeding up. A visual explainer on why this might be the most important trend in human history 🧵
*it's actually a fatebook.io prediction market, no money involved. We've been predicting a bunch of stuff to try and improve our calibration. these motherfuckers don't believe in me (50%, smh), they'll regret it 🔪
I wrote a LW post where I went back and evaluated @DKokotajlo67142's 2021 predictions about 2022-2024; in my opinion, they're extremely impressive
Introducing @AiDigest_ Here, you'll find our interactive AI explainers and demos to help you stay ahead of the curve You can follow our forecasting tools (Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions) at the newly-separate @sage_future_ account: x.com/sage_future_/s…
Introducing @AiDigest_ Here, you'll find our interactive AI explainers and demos to help you stay ahead of the curve You can follow our forecasting tools (Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions) at the newly-separate @sage_future_ account: x.com/sage_future_/s…
We're a nonprofit building tools to make sense of the future: @AiDigest_: interactive AI explainers and demos fatebook.io: the fastest way to make and track your predictions quantifiedintuitions.org: a suite of rapid forecasting training tools
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misha @mishayagudin
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zak miller @zjmiller
197 Followers 104 Following building AI Village @AiDigest_ | 3 yrs @oughtinc/@elicitorg | 4 yrs phil prof
Adam Binksmith @adambinksmith
1K Followers 526 Following Building @aidigest_ and forecasting tools at @sage_future_ 🔭 Prev PhD @StAndrewsCS, @ClearerThinkng
AI Digest @AiDigest_
5K Followers 8 Following Interactive AI explainers. Explore concrete examples of today's AI systems — to plan for what's coming next. A project of @sage_future_Trends for United States
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