laiejdjoqkw @seckcoder

@VeringJulius Congrats Julius! It's a great model

linus torvald on C++ 😅

Airtable is probably worth less than the total equity funding it has raised I'm not talking about the $11.7B valuation it raised at in December 2021 I'm talking about it being worth less than the ~$1.4B+ in financing it has raised Here's the math/data Airtable is on track for $150M of ARR in 2023 Per @CBinsights, it was doing $115M in 2021 That's 14%'ish growth per annum We'll come back to growth in a second But for right now, that puts Airtable's forward price/revenue multiple at 78x ($11.7B valuation / $150M ARR) Now, let's compare that price/revenue multiple with publicly traded peers in the broader project mgmt and collaboration space, specifically: Monday: 12.63x Asana: 6.61x SmartSheet: 7.98x Note: these are not forward multiples but trailing multiples for these companies. And so on a forward basis, the multiples are likely lower But for the sake of simplicity and to give Airtable the benefit of the higher multiple, we'll use those comps This would put Airtable's valuation in the neighborhood of $991 million to $1.89B Ouch. That's a 84-92% valuation discount vs that $11.7B val in 2021 Here is where folks will typically argue that the above doesn't consider Airtable's growth The logic is that Airtable is growing quicker than peers and hence will grow into that valuation and so should command a premium valuation multiple And therein lies the problem Once we layer in growth, the picture for Airtable gets worse Here's YoY revenue growth for the comps Monday: 68.5% Asana: 44.6% SmartSheet: 39.2% As a reminder, Airtable's growth is ~14% And here's their trailing revenues: Monday: $624.8M Asana: $606.5M SmartSheet: $711.9M Airtable: $150M (forward ARR) So it's public peers are 4x to 5x larger in terms terms of revenue And they're growing 2.5x to 4.5x faster Add in a further discount for illiquidity given Airtable is private, the valuation is prob south of $991 million Asana has the lowest price/revenue multiple of the bunch at 6.61x which is how we arrive at the $991M Asana is also growing at almost 3x the rate of Airtable off revenue that is 4x larger It's not hard to imagine that this brings down the multiple of Airtable to 3 to 5x which would equate to a valation of $450M to $750M That'd be a discount of 93-96% vs that Dec 2021 valuation The company is cutting costs and repositioning for profitability which makes sense in this market but given the current likely valuation, all investors after the March 2018 Series B are likely underwater They're also talking about a future IPO but getting back to anywhere close to that $11.7B valuation would require reigniting massive growth and making that price:revenue to growth ratio look more appealing As always, if you believe any of my assumptions in the above are incorrect, please comment and I'll update the analysis if the additional context dramatically changes the results cbinsights.com/research/colla…

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Nice explanation.

Helen Toner @hlntnr

4 years ago

If you spend much time on AI twitter, you might have seen this tentacle monster hanging around. But what is it, and what does it have to do with ChatGPT? It's kind of a long story. But it's worth it! It even ends with cake 🍰 THREAD:

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After 14 wild years, I’ve decided to step back from my full-time role @Airbnb. Details and immense gratitude here: joegebbia.com/dearairbnb

A furious, emotional and fed up Steve Kerr pleaded with senators to do something about the mass shootings.

sigmod.org/2022-sigmod-ji… ACM SIGMOD is pleased to present the 2022 SIGMOD Jim Gray Doctoral Dissertation Award to Chenggang Wu and recognize Kexin Rong, and Pingcheng Ruan for Honorable Mention.

I wrote this the month before we funded Airbnb: paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html

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Vladimir Kostюkov @vkostyukov

5 years ago

A few takes on how hardcore @TwitterEng has been. Let's talk about @finagle and Scala for a minute.

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In his latest article, @andy_pavlo discusses the top 3 reasons people pay @JeffBezos too much for their databases on Amazon RDS and what Bezos buys for himself with that extra cash. Help bring Bezos' spending habits back down to earth: ottertune.com/blog/overpayin…

Published a new blog post! Reflecting on Four Years at Databricks lihaoyi.com/post/Reflectin…

Joseph R. Biden: Lift travel restrictions from China to the US so families can reunion - Sign the Petition! chng.it/V2RwJm9W via @Change

An obvious point that took me way too long to appreciate: in software engineering, you should probably optimize for speed even when you don't have to, because it's one of the easiest/best ways to prioritize subtraction and parsimony in the solution space. nature.com/articles/d4158….

Team #LiftTheTravelBan DAYS APART VIDEO via @melina60021912 cut 2 to meet max Twitter Time Limit This starts at the plane flying until the end of the full video. Tweet & ReTweet. Thank you Melina. ❤️❤️❤️ they are both powerful cuts. Much love to all. Let’s get tweeting!!!

1000’s INTERNATIONAL COUPLES SUFFERED APART #COVIDー19 pandemic, while YOU were w/LOVED ONES. DOUBLE STANDARD UNACCEPTABLE #HumanRights #LiftTheTravelBan @SecAzar @Potus @DominicRaab @EU_Commission @VP @KellyannePolls @UsAmbUK @KarenPierceUK @USAmbEU @BBCJonSopel @gsiskind