Splitrule @splitruleapp
Independent prediction market research. Cross-venue prices, fees, and contract rules. splitrule.com Joined July 2026-
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@trevorlasn @BryceLottos The US fee page now has both tables and the launch timing: docs.polymarket.us/fees#rebate-ch…
Polymarket US's top new standard maker rebate pays $2.60 versus today's $3.12 on one fill of 1,000 contracts at 50¢. Lower tiers pay $1.75, $0.88, or $0. Starts Oct 19, 1pm ET.
Another reason why checking the rules is important: yesterday, Kalshi had Commanders at ~90% and Giants at ~10% before game end. The game ended 27-27. Both contracts paid 50¢ under the stated tie rule, 40¢ below Washington's chart price and 40¢ above New York's, before fees.
@RetroValix I’d love to see the PnL split between the paired shares and the leftover directional position. That 53.7% hit rate gets a lot more useful once entry prices and position sizes are alongside it.
@PolyCop_Trader The maker/taker split is useful. Does the bot show the gap between the target’s fill and the follower’s actual fill?
A 52% forecast can look like an edge against a 50¢ midpoint. For a hypothetical $1 YES contract, buying at 51¢ gives +1¢ expected value, while 55¢ gives -3¢ before fees. Always check the ask, available size, and fees.
After the 2025 shutdown, October payroll estimates appeared in a later report, 39 days after their scheduled release. October’s unemployment rate remained unavailable because BLS never collected the household survey observations needed to produce it. For prediction markets, the contract’s missing-data provisions determine the next step. In the 2026 Polymarket US templates we reviewed, payroll and unemployment contracts allow an earlier period’s figure or outcome review. The CPI template includes settlement at last fair market prices or review. The retained Kalshi CPI terms describe a substitute formula and also preserve review powers. Those provisions can change the basis for a payout even when two markets share the same economic headline. The data gap also reaches into this year. In guidance reviewed on October 9, BLS said it plans to omit October 2026 annual CPI changes for indexes whose October 2025 values are unavailable. Our new Field Note follows the official releases and contract clauses, including a reproducible CPI fallback calculation that matches Kalshi’s displayed outcome. We explain the inputs and what that match establishes, with sources and methods available alongside the article. splitrule.com/notes/missing-…
@thecaseywoodard The fine print is doing a lot of work here. Same headline doesn't always mean the same bet with cutoff times and settlement rules differing. Then you still need both orders filled at the prices on screen.
@KeithGrossman A market move can be the start of a good story. Trace it back to the new evidence and the people/money behind it. I'd read that over another headline repeating the odds.
Expanded venue and sportsbook coverage is live on Splitrule. Browse markets across sources from one view, filter by venue or book, and check the available prices, fees, and rules: splitrule.com/markets Next up: deeper coverage and better ways to compare related markets.
Sources: Court docket: supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?fi… NFL brief: supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/2… Company responses: frontofficesports.com/article/nfl-as… /end
For traders, keep three questions separate: Who regulates the venue? What does the contract promise? What happens if trading or settlement is interrupted? That’s the lens behind Splitrule and reading the rules alongside the price. 7/
RECAP: The NFL and 39 states plus DC are backing New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review of sports prediction markets. The dispute revolves around who can regulate these contracts and what safeguards should apply. 1/ 🧵
@BenHorney @FOS An exchange model doesn’t necessarily answer the integrity question by itself. Interested in which safeguards the NFL sees as missing (restrictions on participants, the types of contracts offered, how suspicious activity gets investigated, etc).
Novig activity is now on Splitrule. Browse reports by product/league with trades, open interest, and market activity one view. Built from Novig’s published reports with the source details alongside the numbers. Deeper Novig integration coming soon.👇 splitrule.com/activity
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