Olivia @stephaniebala

Hype is like the law of the jungle in the animal world, specialising in attacking the weak, a practice that tends to hit 100 times out of 100. London, England Joined June 2011

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Olivia @stephaniebala

9 months ago

The return on investment in U.S. equities has been amazing! If we had entered the market with $1,000 at the beginning of the year, our principal would have soared to $10 million by now. By the end of business on 26 December, our assets had grown to a staggering $18,359,095.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

11 months ago

While the prospects for a soft landing in the US economy are good, the US election on 5 November could trigger market shocks and have an unpredictable impact on investor sentiment; the macroeconomic outlook for the rest of the world also ‘remains cloudy’

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Olivia @stephaniebala

11 months ago

Four factors are currently driving U.S. equities higher: improving macro data, solid third-quarter earnings performance, rising expectations of a Republican sweep of the election, and reduced risk of an escalating situation in the Middle East.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

11 months ago

The future may experience two to three months of uncertainty and social risk, which will be negative for the market.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

11 months ago

A number of important corporate earnings reports are due out this week. Markets are also focusing on the US presidential election, climbing US bond yields, uncertainty over Fed easing and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

12 months ago

In September, U.S. stocks performed better than we expected. As we move into a stronger seasonal period, coupled with the start of the Fed's easing cycle and favourable technical conditions, these factors will provide a push upward for US stocks before the end of the year.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

The market has overestimated the Fed's ability to ease policy. However, strong U.S. employment data could prompt a sharp upward revision in market expectations for the federal funds rate.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

Friday is the so-called ‘triple witching day,’ when about $5.1 trillion in options on indexes, stocks and ETFs expire. This happens quarterly, on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. U.S. stock market volatility is usually significantly higher on this day.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

We know the Fed is about to cut rates. Given that the inflation data supports a rate cut and the labour market needs some support, I think that will give the market confidence. I think there will be good market performance during the meeting and for a week or two after.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, but at the same time reiterates that this is to maintain a soft landing for the economy, this would be good for the stock market. If the Fed is forced into a panic rate cut due to some uncertainty, expect a sell-off in stocks.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

The U.S. consumer and economy continue to perform well, and corporate earnings continue to come in above expectations. The rally in U.S. stocks seems entirely justified, as these problems do not appear to be continuing to expand.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

The U.S. wholesale price index rose 0.2 per cent in August from a year earlier, in line with expectations. This is the last inflation data before the Federal Reserve holds its monetary policy meeting. The market now widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

Markets may want to wait for new poll results in the coming days to take a more decisive stance on the general election.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

While it is almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, the question is the number and magnitude of future rate cuts. The global economy faces many risks that have an impact on the Fed's decision-making.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

I expect a 7 to 10 per cent pullback in the US stock market over the next two months, which will provide investors with a ‘buy low’ opportunity.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

U.S. stocks had an incredibly tough start to August. But after 5 August, the market began to regain its composure. In part, this sound was due to more positive data on the U.S. economy, which helped investors ease fears of an impending recession.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

There are three things you can be sure of: death, taxes, and an Nvidia earnings beat. The problem is that this time the Nvidia earnings beat was much smaller than expected. Even if guidance for future performance was raised, the tone was not as high as in previous quarters.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

I think NVIDIA's earnings report may be more important than the inflation numbers. We know the rate of inflation is improving, but we don't know what the AI giant's earnings forecast will be, and that could be a shock to the market.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

NVIDIA's financials will be good, but it's the earnings forecast that matters to see if demand remains healthy. If we get bad news, the market rotation will be more dramatic as the market is still very much focused on large tech stocks at this point.

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Olivia @stephaniebala

a year ago

In the near term, higher levels of market volatility are likely to be the norm rather than the exception, as broad market valuations remain high and seasonal trends suggest lower stock market returns during the summer U.S. equity downturn.