Instead of scouting @RuthlessPodcast KOTH challengers this morning I'm going to continue my look into how guests of the Progrum have performed in elections. By my estimation there are been 43 people interviewed during an active campaign.
Of course "active campaign" needs to be clarified. A politician is always campaigning afterall. For an incumbent I categorize any appearance during the calendar year of the election as "active". I am also tracking performance in primary, general, and special elections.
I had considered just putting incumbents into their general election. It certainly makes it easier for me if I don't need to worry about some election they're projected to win by 40%. But AOC and David Brat show what complacency can lead to in politics.
So, how do @RuthlessPodcast guests perform in an election? Of the 43 guests who appeared during an active campaign, 13 have seen an election day pass. Of those 13 only 4 have won. .307 is a fine batting average but a terrible winning percentage.
Now, before anyone goes and cancels their scheduled appearance because some random Twitter account said it was an electoral Kiss of Death, let's go into the details here. First, of the 13 candidates who've been through an election, there are only 7 races involved here.
The elections lost by Progrum interviewees are: 2020 GA Senator Special Election VA GOV GOP Primary CA GOV Recall OH Senate GOP Primary PA Senate GOP Primary So it should be immediately clear there is a lot of double counting in this.
There were 5 candidates from the OH Senate Primary interviewed on the Progrum. Of course only one of them was going to win. For anyone paying attention, the PA Senate Primary loss is Sean Parnell withdrawing from the campaign. Primaries are going to drive down these numbers.
Which, honestly, I expected and it's why I break it down by the different phases of the election. Importantly for the Progrum though, of the primary races they've featured, the eventual primary winner has appeared on the Progrum 3 of 3 times. VA GOV, OH Senate, and TX 38.
Which, small sample size warning of course, does indicate if you're running for office as a member of the GOP, you want to get yourself on @RuthlessPodcast. This summer is really going to winnow this down and I'm excited to see how it goes.
So hyped for Thursday KOTH though. Has @HolmesJosh found himself a competitor whom many people are saying is an unstoppable coke-fueled juggernaut? Does @ComfortablySmug have a giant-slaying David Tyree available? Will the J&J have to declare a mistrial? Can't wait to find out!
@tearec @HolmesJosh @ComfortablySmug Schmidt has potential to be the Mark McGwire of KTOH