TheGrind @thegrindfx

@johnhhaskell Agree there are political components both in the fomentation and the subsequent reaction. The root of it is in consumer psychology.

@Douglas1953nj Japan is culturally much different than the US. Hyperinflation being a psychological event has cultural underpinnings. The US is culturally more apt to a hyperinflation event than Japan IMO.

UK and US converge Dec 22/DEC 26 calendar spread.... When CB's are thought to tighten one begins to guess when they will be done? Short stlg flattens 43 bp's.. US 32

When CB's are thought to begin tightening... in both UK and the US... the mkt.'s thought turn to when they (the CB's) will be done... in US and UK the Dec 22/Dec 24 calendar spreads have collapsed...

phyron @parrmenidies

3 years ago

Multiple Unverses... Great Britain and U.S. Anticipated Tightenin leads to Inversion in UK... not so much in the US...Dec 22/Dec 24 Box Spread moves 50 bp's...

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Still the same "reflecting barriers"... Sell 5 HIKES... buy 7 Hikes... (Eurodollar futures that is).....5 years is a long time...these 50 bp's transits will add up...

Expected "inflation" up 20 bp's, yet anticpated Terminal Rate basically unchanged, as mkt.'s assumption of "real neutral rate" drops back to "zero". 5 or 6 Hikes by 2024 and Done !

Trader thoughts....markets resilient in the face of sharp repricing in rates and bear flattening in curves.. that may change, and maybe its earnings, and maybe we needed to see higher vol in US rates, but it was quite impressive

@JTSEO9 Fkn hell Dr Jin, you crushed this

$USD is enjoying a firmer tone amid a flare-up in risk-off. Despite a large jump in short-term rates in the UK, Canada, and NZ today, their currencies are drawing little support. What's up with that? marctomarket.com/2021/10/the-ju…

It's absolutely mind-boggling when you think about how much central banks are trapped at this stage. Absolutely mind-boggling!

Sometimes when you feel like responding to criticism the best reaction is to remain silent because silence is deadly. What people say only matters if you give a f@ck. 🤷‍♂️

Be Prepared. Macro: UK, Canada, Japanese CPI reports, and why the surge in energy is deflationary. marctomarket.com/2021/10/the-dr… Prices: Our initial guess was that the upper end of a new range for $USD- $JPY was in the 114.50-115.00 area. Now what? marctomarket.com/2021/10/greenb…

Punchy moves in Aussie bond markets - 3s and 5s +9bp, 10s +6bp...no real moves in the AUD on this though, with better buying in the NZD after the big beat in CPI

One Year LIBOR showing signs of life. #Updata

My uncle, owner of a trucking company, has now been waiting for 4 weeks to get 3 trucks repaired (lack of electronic components). Consequence: significant drop in turnover, short-time work for 3 truck drivers. Shortages, supply chain disruptions are starting to hurt considerably!

Nice little summary (source: MS) of moves in the DXY across different time zones (since Jan) this year - we 've generally seen the YTD gains through Asia and into UK trade $DXY

#Copper nice shape inside the range but if it breaks here it's into the backtest, when the major trendline is breached like this, that's the markets way of saying expect prolonged rightside to absorb overhang from the extended move.

Gone mostly without comment, the ave weekly hrs rose by 12 minutes. It doesn't sound like much, but assuming 155 mln employees, this turns into the equivalent output of 31 mln hours. And with the 34.8 hr work week, it is about 890k full-time equivalents.

Some large FX option expirations tomorrow, 90 min after the jobs data: $1.16 for 1.65 bln $eur and $2.75 bln at JPY111.00. At $0.7300 and $0.7335 there are $AUD 1.07 bln and $AUD2.05 bln respectively. There is a 350 mln euro option at $GBP0.8680.

This is August '21 Treasury Statement. Still trying to understand how we 'default' if the debt ceiling isn't raised.