The Reset Trader @theresettrader

@JJreadsflow Thank you! Glad it was easy to follow. Have a great weekend.

$SPY is down almost 1%. $QQQ is down almost 2%, below yesterday's low. 10/16 Midday Check: The selling spread from chips into software. Cybersecurity names are down hard. The Dow, equal weight, and small caps turned red too. Energy, staples, and defense are holding green. Oil jumped back near $100. Yields are higher again. October Fed hike odds ticked up to about 17%. VIX jumped to near 19. Goolsbee speaks after the close. Taking a short break. Market reads return next Friday. Have a good weekend!

$SPY is slightly red. $QQQ is down about 1% as tech sells off. 10/16 Morning Read: Chips are weak again. Software joined the selling. Banks, defense, energy, and staples are green. The Dow and equal weight are leading. October Fed hike odds dropped to about 15%, down from 28% yesterday. Import prices came in hot. Industrial production was strong. Yields are lower. Gold and silver are up. Oil is near $98, up more than 6% this week. VIX is near 16. Watching whether tech finds support.

Hot PPI, but $SPY closed green. $QQQ recovered most of its loss. The strength was broader than tech. 10/15 Closing Read: Stocks bounced from the morning lows. Small caps, equal weight, and the Dow all gained more than 1%. Software stayed strong. Healthcare and financials helped lead. Chips were mixed by the close. Micron turned green, while Nvidia and AMD stayed red. Hardware remained weak. Oil held near $98, but energy stocks finished lower. Long-term yields fell. The 10-year is near 5.09%. October Fed hike odds eased to 27%. VIX fell below 16.5. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tonight from Bangkok.

$SPY recovered to flat. $QQQ bounced off its low but is still red. Both are above VWAP. 10/15 Midday Check: Chips and hardware are still red. Dell is down nearly 9%. Software is bouncing hard. Healthcare and home improvement are strong too. Equal weight, small caps, and the Dow are green. Oil jumped to a one-month high near $98. Energy stocks in the S&P are red anyway. Yields are still lower. October Fed hike odds are near 29%. VIX is near 17. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tonight from Bangkok. I'm watching whether the rebound holds into the close.

In a gold rush, the shovel sellers often do better than the miners who borrowed to dig. I think about that with AI. Neoclouds like $CRWV are the miners, borrowing heavily to buy chips and rent out computing power. The debt payments keep coming even if projects get delayed. Chipmakers sell the shovels. But they're exposed too, especially when they help finance their customers. I own $AVGO, so this matters to me. I'd rather own the shovel sellers. But I still need to know who's paying for the shovels.

@KrisPatel99 I own AVGO too. Watching how these partnerships translate into profits and cash flow.

The problem was voids in thicker carbon composite sections during curing. Huge parts, new process. They caught it before flight. Good call. But fixing the process and proving the full tank passes testing are separate steps. That takes time. I'm planning for that.

$RKLB I planned for a delay. That's why I'm okay today. Rocket Lab pushed Neutron to 2027. The stock dropped hard. I used to be an engineer at Boeing. Development and testing take time. A target date isn't a guarantee. I bought call debit spreads expiring Jan 2028. I gave the trade time, sized it appropriately, and knew my max loss before entering. My gambler brain still wants to buy more because it's cheaper. Cheaper isn't closer. I'm not adding. Now I'm watching the testing milestones, the revised launch schedule, and how much cash getting there will take. Does that still fit the time left on my spreads? Planning for a delay doesn't mean ignoring what changes.

$SPY and $QQQ bounced off the lows. Tech is still taking the bigger hit. 10/15 Morning Read: PPI came in hot. Headline and core were both above expectations. Retail sales beat overall, but the control group missed. Chips and hardware are getting hit again. Dell is down nearly 9%. Healthcare and staples are strong. Apple, Microsoft and Google are green. Equal weight and small caps are green too. There's strength outside tech. Treasury yields are falling despite hot inflation. October Fed hike odds eased to 27%, from 33% yesterday. U.S. oil, gold and silver are higher. VIX is near 17.5. Watching if the bounce holds and tech stabilizes.

Core inflation came in hot. $SPY fell about 1%. $QQQ lost about 2%. 10/14 Closing Read: A late bounce recovered only part of the day’s drop. Both finished just below VWAP. Tech and chips took the bigger hit. Oracle fell nearly 9%. Dell lost over 11%. Small caps fell about 2%. Equal weight held up better but still closed red. Healthcare and staples were strong. Apple and JPM finished green. Oil stayed higher. Long-term yields reversed lower. October Fed hike odds cooled to 33%, still above 22% yesterday. VIX rose to nearly 17. PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims tomorrow.

$BA I used to work at Boeing as an engineer. I own the stock. Neither gives me a reason to ignore the numbers. Deliveries improved in Q2, but the commercial airplane business still lost money. Free cash flow was +$631M for the quarter, but -$823M for the first half. One positive quarter isn’t sustained recovery. The chart is weak too. Lower highs, lower lows. I can’t call it range-bound just because I’ve traded it that way before. Earnings are Oct 27. I’m watching deliveries, margins, cash flow, production rates, certification timelines, and debt. Signs of trouble mean I watch closer. A serious setback means I reassess whether I still want to hold. I’m willing to hold longer. I’m not adding here. My exit is a daily close below $175. I can like Boeing and still have a limit.

@100m_or_bust I review my entry after a stop too. But a losing trade doesn’t automatically mean the entry was bad. I can follow my rules and still lose.

When a trade goes wrong, my brain looks for a rescue. A CEO statement. A big investor stepping in. Good news overnight. That's hope, not a plan. I follow my stop. I don't wait for a headline to save the trade.

$SPY and $QQQ bounced slightly off the lows. Both are still below VWAP. 10/14 Midday Check: Core inflation came in hotter than expected. Tech is taking the bigger hit. Chips are broadly red. Oracle and Dell are down hard. Small caps are lagging. Equal weight is red too. Healthcare and staples are strong. Apple and JPM are holding green. Oil is higher. The 2-year yield is up more than the 10-year. October Fed hike odds cooled to 37%, from 47% this morning. Still up from 22% yesterday. VIX is up, near 16.4. Watching whether this bounce holds or fades into the close.

$SOFI got my attention today. It doesn’t have my money yet. RSI is near 26 and price is below the lower Bollinger Band. But it’s still making lower highs and lower lows under a falling 200-day average. Oversold doesn’t mean the selling is finished. If I get in, it’ll be a small, long-term speculative position. Not a quick bounce trade. Earnings are Oct 27. I’m watching whether profit guidance holds, loan losses stay controlled, and fee revenue keeps growing. Last quarter they raised revenue guidance but kept profit guidance unchanged so they could invest more. I’m considering a 2028 call debit spread or selling a put where I’d be okay owning the shares. First I want the new numbers. Then I’ll figure out valuation and an entry plan.

@TheOneLanceB Same with $BAC for me. I sold Sept 29 when it closed below my stop. Today it fell almost 8% after earnings. I didn’t know what was coming. I didn’t need an explanation to follow my plan.

$BAC is cheaper. I still don't have a setup. I sold at $54.98 when it hit my stop. Today it's near $49.70. Net interest income grew, but adjusted earnings missed. The regulatory cleanup is still in progress, and the chart hasn't confirmed a re-entry. It's on my watchlist, not in my account. I can like a company and still stay out.

@stevemagness As a trader - Being wrong and taking a loss got easier when I stopped making it a judgment of me.

Hot core CPI. Yields jumped. $SPY and $QQQ are near the morning lows. 10/14 Morning Read: Core inflation came in above expectations. October Fed hike odds are near 47%, up from about 22% yesterday. Chips and banks are weak. Bank of America is down over 8% after earnings. Healthcare and staples are green. Apple is holding up. Small caps are getting hit hardest. Equal weight is lagging SPY. Oil and the dollar are higher. Gold and silver are down. VIX is up but still below 16. The first bounce didn't hold. No rush.