VoteHub @VoteHub

6 days to go.

Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close) Operations Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome. It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground. Key races Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state. Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try. MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat. MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it. MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.

Per Fox News, federal prosecutors are reportedly conducting a criminal investigation into how a second candidate named Dan Sullivan qualified for Alaska's Senate ballot, following allegations that Democrats recruited spoiler candidates to draw votes from the GOP incumbent.

Yesterday was the most red day of early voting in Texas so far. Republicans will be hoping that trend continues through the end of the week, which would run counter to historical voting patterns. 2024 Electorate by Day 10/19: Trump+3.4 10/19: Trump +8.2 10/21: Trump+10.3 10/22: Trump+11.9 10/23: Trump+11.2 10/24: Trump+5.4 10/25: Trump+4.2 10/26: Trump+11.9 10/27: Trump+13.1

VoteHub @VoteHub

3 hours ago

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 9 As of Oct. 28, 2026 Total votes: 5,468,144 (+550,301) 56.3% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 45.1% - 54.7% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 43.1% - 52.7% VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

29 35 471 72K 36

NEWS - Pres. Trump has called on Alaska to exclude Mary Peltola and Daniel J. Sullivan from the general election ballot, alleging fraud. Absentee ballots have been sent out and early voting began last week.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) accuses Mary Peltola’s campaign of a “cover-up” following reports that it and the DSCC recruited Daniel J. Sullivan. “What has been revealed is a pattern of lies and coverups,” Murkowski said. Source: Alaska Landmine

votehub.com/2026-early-vot…

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 9 As of Oct. 28, 2026 Total votes: 5,468,144 (+550,301) 56.3% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 45.1% - 54.7% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 43.1% - 52.7% VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

We join Verasight to discuss the latest VoteHub/Verasight polling in Texas and Ohio ahead of the 2026 midterms. x.com/i/broadcasts/2…

votehub.com/2026-early-vot…

Ohio U.S. Senate 🏟️ As of Oct. 28, 2026 Total early votes: 1,174,502 27.8% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 Sherrod Brown: 51.7–60.8% 🔴 Jon Husted: 37.0–46.1% Remaining votes in Ohio will be much more Republican. VoteHub currently rates the race as Lean D.

votehub.com/2026-early-vot…

Florida Early Vote Tracking ☀️ As of Oct. 28, 2026 Total mail votes: 3,374,005 (+351,217) 45.7% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 Angie Nixon: 45.4% - 55.6% 🔴 Ashley Moody: 43.7% - 53.9% Remaining votes will be more Republican. We rate this race as Likely R.

Movement in the direction of Democrats has also been seen in U.S. House races.

North Carolina Senate: Kalshi's Expected Margin of Victory 🔵 September 22: Roy Cooper +7 🔵 October 28: Roy Cooper +14 Cooper's expected margin on Kalshi has widened as Republicans have struggled with turnout in North Carolina. With polls and fundamentals largely unchanged, the shift suggests traders are placing more weight on early voting data, something most quantitative forecasts do not.

Voters hate data centers, and campaigns are catching on. But the buildout is concentrated in a handful of states, leaving a small number of races directly exposed to the fallout, writes Jonathan Schwartz. votehub.com/2026/10/27/the…

NEW — The New York Times reports that aides to Mary Peltola’s campaign and senior DSCC officials helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to enter Alaska’s Senate race. Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC deny the claim.

We're watching Texas closely: GOP primary voters trail Democrats in ballot returns, and the gap is growing. That could be good for Paxton if reliable GOP voters are just voting later. But if the gap doesn't close before ED, he can't afford to have Cornyn voters stay home.

NEW — Former Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback says he is running for president in 2028, per The Hill. Fishback finished third in the state’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary with 10.5% of the vote.

NEW: House Majority PAC is adding roughly $300K in final-week ads in NY-21, a Trump +21 district. VP JD Vance is also set to visit the district.