Scott Tranter @stranter
Data Science @decisiondeskhq Washington D.C. Joined January 2008-
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It's Wednesday, so it's time for DDHQ's weekly Polling Memo. This week, the spotlight is on NYC Mayor, where Mamdani looks unassailable as long as the race remains crowded. We also have polling averages for 2025 races, pres approval & more! decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/mamdani-is-a…
We’ve got a couple of big announcements to make today. First, Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) is joining our team as our Chief Elections Analyst. As part of this new position, Geoffrey will be writing and editing our newsletter, which is being renamed The Bellwether. He’ll take…
We're on pace to cover over 50,000 elections this year from Mosquito Control Board in south Florida to Governors contests in NJ and VA Governors. Check below if you want to join our engineering team and help us out! linkedin.com/jobs/view/4283…
To flip 5 seats, the Texas GOP plan creates 3 pickups by eliminating 1 Dem district across each of the DFW, Houston & San Antonio-Austin areas (32nd, 9th & 35th, respectively). In South TX, they further reddened R-leaning, majority-Latino 28th & 34th districts held by Democrats.
This week, we see mixed movement in polls, with approval, favorability, and right/wrong track moving in opposite directions. Our biggest movement of the week was a drop of 4.5 points in Schumer’s net favorability, leaving him 16 points in the red. While Trump’s approval…
2 things Great way to increase total market size but liquidity/turnover may be stickier? This changes the dynamics and the quality of their prediction markets (not sure if net positive or negative) and will certainly create some asymmetric (arbitrageable?) pricing differences…
2 things Great way to increase total market size but liquidity/turnover may be stickier? This changes the dynamics and the quality of their prediction markets (not sure if net positive or negative) and will certainly create some asymmetric (arbitrageable?) pricing differences…
This week, our polling averages indicate mixed movement in public opinion, with Trump’s approval rating dropping by more than a point while his favorability increases by 2 points. Musk’s dramatic losses in favorability have slowed this week, though he remains more than 20 points…
Good piece explaining how the demographics/math is viable for the GOP to gain up to 5 House seats in TX in any potential redistricting scenario. Still unclear if TX actually does it and the new lines clear legal challenges going into 2026 but if they are this and potentially…
Good piece explaining how the demographics/math is viable for the GOP to gain up to 5 House seats in TX in any potential redistricting scenario. Still unclear if TX actually does it and the new lines clear legal challenges going into 2026 but if they are this and potentially…
Tuesday night, New York City holds its Democratic primary for mayor. After incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary in April to run as an independent following his federal bribery indictment, the race has effectively narrowed to a two-person showdown…
With such a disparity in turnout between NYC boroughs, we'll likely see an impactful difference between early voting and election day first-choice results. Mamdani's best numbers will be seen early, and Cuomo's late, on Tuesday night.
With such a disparity in turnout between NYC boroughs, we'll likely see an impactful difference between early voting and election day first-choice results. Mamdani's best numbers will be seen early, and Cuomo's late, on Tuesday night.
Lots of public and private studies on this and the ROI is bad unless you have multi-cycle patience (and maybe multi-generational)... The GOP was counting on Musk money for the midterms -- decent bet it won't be coming now which has implications for House and Senate margins.
Lots of public and private studies on this and the ROI is bad unless you have multi-cycle patience (and maybe multi-generational)... The GOP was counting on Musk money for the midterms -- decent bet it won't be coming now which has implications for House and Senate margins.
Presidential approval jumps to its highest level since late March at 47.4%. Our other averages show improvement for Democrats on the generic ballot, while the country is slowly inching toward the opinion that things are on the right track. 7-day change in averages:…
For the last 20+ years the conventional wisdom had been that low turnout elections favored the GOP. The polling and ultimately voting patterns in 2024 showed us this dynamic was changing. 2026 will be the first mid-term with this new dynamic and will cause some issues with…
Agreed. Also, over the next few cycles charts like this are going to be more common then the general public realizes, especially in US politics.
Agreed. Also, over the next few cycles charts like this are going to be more common then the general public realizes, especially in US politics.
This week's polling average update is a bit more disorganized than we've been accustomed to. Presidential approval and Elon Musk's favorability dipped, while Republicans narrowed the gap with Democrats on the generic ballot. 7-day change in averages: 🟠Presidential Disapproval…
Presidential approval ratings have climbed for three straight weeks in our averages, continuing to signal a positive shift in public sentiment. Key members of the administration also see a steady rise in support across multiple demographics. Unlike the previous two weeks,…
This week's view of public sentiment offers the Trump administration an inflection point. The weekly change in our polling averages shows a net positive toward the President, his administration, and Republicans on the general ballot. 7-day change in averages: 🟢Presidential…
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
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Luke Thompson @ltthompso
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Jonathan Martin @jmart
311K Followers 12K Following Senior political columnist @politico. Best email for audio files, documents, tips and provocative ideas: https://t.co/VmkJz2G3tS or DM for text/signal
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
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Tim Miller @Timodc
429K Followers 4K Following Host of The Bulwark Podcast | MSNBC analyst | Author “Why We Did It” | Jokic обожавалац | Weak and Gay | Never Trump
Comfortably Smug @ComfortablySmug
348K Followers 8K Following My Interests: Finance, Whiskey, Politics, Books, Food, Meeting Strangers #altcenter Disinformation and misinformation researcher
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28K Followers 2K Following @TargetedVictory. Fmr ED @StandWithCrypto. Proud Alum @NRSC/@SenCoryGardner/@TarranceGroup. Prouder @EmilyTDobson husband. 1-1 boxer. Vive L'Empereur.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
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Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini
66K Followers 3K Following Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik
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Alex Thompson @AlexThomp
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Kristen Soltis Anders... @KSoltisAnderson
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Natalie Jackson @nataliemj10
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Anton Vuljaj @anton
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Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo
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Larry Sabato @LarrySabato
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VoteHub @VoteHubUS
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Owen 🗽🐍🦅🦬... @owenperkins1999
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TheHillSunday @TheHillSunday
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Carla @ZbftvbfDGsx0c0
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
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Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
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429K Followers 4K Following Host of The Bulwark Podcast | MSNBC analyst | Author “Why We Did It” | Jokic обожавалац | Weak and Gay | Never Trump
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Comfortably Smug @ComfortablySmug
348K Followers 8K Following My Interests: Finance, Whiskey, Politics, Books, Food, Meeting Strangers #altcenter Disinformation and misinformation researcher
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Jeff Blehar is *BOX O... @EsotericCD
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TheHillSunday @TheHillSunday
140 Followers 142 Following Moderated by @ChrisStirewalt on @NewsNation and @TheCW
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698 Followers 1K Following In the District of Columbia. Product management. Fantasy football stuff at @fantasyforecstr. Read https://t.co/BydTeYfZmj.
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Peter Wildeford🇺�... @peterwildeford
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semi @SemioticRivalry
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Erin Maguire @ErinMMaguire
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11K Followers 473 Following Bet on everything. Get accurate real-time odds on AI, politics, news, and more.Trends for United States
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