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Rain is holding up a Cleveland October night again. Game 3 of this series was already moved to 1pm to beat the forecast, and now Game 4 sits under the tarp with Cleveland two wins from the pennant. The tarp has come out at Progressive Field in October before: Game 7 of the 2016 World Series stopped after nine innings with the Cubs and Indians tied 6-6.
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Cleveland won Game 1 in Tampa, dropped Game 2 and took Game 3 at home. Only four ALCS teams since 1985 have opened a series that way, and they split evenly. The 1991 Twins and 1996 Yankees won the pennant, while the 1986 Angels and the 1995 Mariners did not. Twenty two ALCS teams have led 2-1 and won Game 4, and 19 of them reached the World Series. One of the three that did not was Cleveland, in 2007.
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Scout Report
ALCS Game 4 | #Rays @ #Guardians
Nick Martinez vs Shawn Armstrong (opener, bullpen game)
8ET | Progressive Field | Cleveland leads 2-1
Nick Martinez induces balls in the air Only 36.5% of the balls hit off him this year stayed on the ground, and he gave up 22 home runs in 180 innings. Cleveland hasnt taken him deep, though. He threw 13 scoreless innings at the Guardians in April and July, and tonight he pitches in front of the best outfield in this series. Can Cleveland lift one past Jonny DeLuca and Victor Mesa Jr. on a cool, cloudy night, while getting through 27 outs on a bullpen game?
The series so far: Cleveland won Game 3 3-2. Simpson tied it with a two-run triple, and Halpin's fifth-inning homer off Jax won it. Gavin Williams struck out nine in five innings, and four relievers covered the last four innings without allowing a run. Cleveland is 4 for 22 with runners in scoring position in this series, and Tampa Bay is 4 for 15.
Rays on the mound: Martinez hasn't pitched in nine days. His season was a 3.10 ERA with a 3.98 xERA and a .307 xwOBA allowed, and he doesn't miss many bats or walk many hitters. The changeup carries him, with a .241 xwOBA and a 30.7% whiff rate. The four-seamer is the pitch that gets hit, with a .494 slugging and a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Because of the changeup he has a reverse split, but 13 of his 22 home runs went to lefties, and Cleveland starts eight left-handed hitters. In his two starts against them he allowed 7 hits, 1 walk and no homers with 9 strikeouts. Tonight's Guardians are 4 for 23 against him.
Guardians on the mound:Armstrong has thrown 5.1 innings this October and allowed one hit and no runs. His sweeper is the best pitch (.260 xwOBA, 28.2% whiff), and his job is the Díaz and Caminero part of the order. Cantillo is the likeliest long lefty against a projected Rays lineup with five left-handed bats. He struck out 171 in 159 innings this year with a 45% ground-ball rate. Bibee is fully rested for bulk innings, and Cecconi can cover the middle.
Fly balls vs the outfield: Tampa Bay's infield is 30 outs below average (OAA), but its outfield is 36 above. DeLuca is +13, Mullins +11, Simpson +8 and Mesa Jr. +7, while Cleveland's outfield is at -2. Martinez gets 63.5% of his contact in the air. Cleveland hits more fly balls than Tampa (34.7% to 31.8%) and pulls 47% of the time, with Ramírez the pull-power threat. In 59 degrees with a 9 mph wind that changes direction, whatever doesn't clear the fence comes down in front of the best gloves on the field.
Bullpens: Cleveland's pen has 1 earned run in 12 innings this series, and Tampa's has 6 in 10. Espino, Sabrowski, Gaddis and Smith all pitched Thursday, so Vogt's late group would be working back to back. Wells (26 pitches) and Matz (25) may be limited for Tampa. Baker has saved all four Rays wins this October.
X Factor: Joey Cantillo. A bullpen game turns on who gets the most outs, and his ground balls suit a Tampa lineup that hits 45.6% grounders into Cleveland's +15 infield. The risk is the walks: 81 this year, and two more in his only inning of the series.
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**Raw team block**
- **Lineups:**
- CLE (confirmed): Kwan LF, Ramírez 3B, DeLauter RF, Adell DH, Lowe 1B, Bazzana 2B, Bailey C, Halpin CF, Rocchio SS
- TB (projected): Y. Díaz DH, Aranda 1B, Caminero 3B, Mesa Jr. RF, Simpson LF, Hicks C, DeLuca CF, Palacios 2B, Walls SS
- **Catchers:**
- Hicks: pop 1.97, arm 82.0, CS 16%, CS above average +2.6, framing +1.4
- Bailey: pop 1.85, arm 84.5, CS 30%, CS above average +5.3, framing +4.6
- **Running game:**
- TB: 164 SB, 54 CS, sprint 27.7, fastest Simpson 29.4
- CLE: 146 SB, 31 CS, sprint 26.7, fastest Adell and Bazzana 28.3
- **Offense** (GB / FB / IFFB / pull / K / barrel / hard-hit / xwOBA):
- TB: 45.6 / 31.8 / 8.8 / 42.0 / 18.8 / 5.7 / 34.6 / .304
- CLE: 41.0 / 34.7 / 9.0 / 47.0 / 20.8 / 5.8 / 35.0 / .305
- **GB% and popup%:**
- TB staff 40.4 and 8.0, Martinez 36.5 and 9.8
- CLE staff 41.9 and 8.3, Armstrong 44.4 and 8.1, Cantillo 45.0 and 7.0
- **OAA** (team / IF / OF):
- TB +6 / -30 / +36
- CLE +13 / +15 / -2
- **Bullpen** (ERA / K-BB / GB):
- TB 3.99 / 14.0% / 39.9%
- CLE 3.54 / 17.2% / 39.9%
**Graphic:** Martinez vs CLE, 13 IP and 0 R / Guardians 4 for 23 vs him / 36.5% GB, 22 HR / TB outfield +36 OAA, CLE -2 / Armstrong this October, 5.1 IP and 0 R / Cantillo, 171 K in 159 IP / Pens this series, CLE 1 ER and TB 6 ER
Not since 1948 has a Browns team had a winning record while Cleveland's baseball team was playing in an ALCS or World Series. That 1948 club played in the old AAFC, and the Indians won the World Series that fall. The 1995 and 2007 Browns were 3-3 during those runs, and the 2016 Browns were winless.
History is Kind to Cleveland Baseball win then Browns are Winning!!
Football on a Sunday and a pennant push in the same October weekend is rare in Cleveland, and rarer still with the Browns winning. The Browns are 3-2 heading into Sunday against Baltimore. Not since 1948 has a Browns team had a winning record while Cleveland's baseball team was playing in an ALCS or World Series. That 1948 club played in the old AAFC, and the Indians won the World Series that fall. The 1995 and 2007 Browns were 3-3 during those runs, and the 2016 Browns were winless.
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