$NBIS
Nebius rejected the $180 fib line and is now trading below the 200 day MA, nearly flipping negative intraday. As it stands, the golden GEX zone rests at $165 with net -$2.3M exposure. Buyers are positioning themselves above current prices at $180, $185, and $190 strikes.
Above $170 is long gamma exposure. If we could sustain a genuine breakout past the 200 day MA, we could retest $180, and possibly $185, very quickly.
The sentiment around Nebius is at what seems to be all time lows. The market is viewing their debt exposure as equal to Oracle’s or CoreWeaves, which is completely wrong.
Earnings are around the corner, and I’d like to believe this setup is very attractive heading in. A max pain scenario would $146 (0% fib line), and at this price Nebius would be Ultra-Attractive.
NFA DYOR
I've been adding a ton of $NBIS because its ARR could potentially reach ~$51B by 2029 while the entire company trades around a $45B market cap today.
That's less than 1x 2029 ARR for a business already reporting ~50% adjusted EBITDA margins in its core AI cloud operations with some capacity deals paying back in under two years.
And I think Token Factory could become an even bigger opportunity as production workloads more than tripled in Q2 with open model inference growing giving Nebius a way to earn more from every GPU rather than simply renting out the hardware.
$NBIS
Very interesting. The golden strike is $300 call expiring January 2027. Regardless, Nebius rejected the PDL (previous day low) after we had the pump sector wide.
The put wall at $200 is very strong, a lot stronger than I had anticipated. Makes me comfortable knowing we have support below. If CPI or Anthropic’s investor day presentation doesn’t go as planned, a breakdown below $200 could show us $190, and possibly $180 as a max pain scenario.
We also reclaimed the 0.382 fib line ($204) which is a healthy sign intraday. The RSI is below 50.00, so we aren’t yet exhausted on the selloff but we are approaching.
NFA DYOR
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