AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.
AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.
@elonmusk No. If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17 year-old. But we still don't have fully autonomous, reliable self-driving, even though we (you) have millions of hours of *labeled* training data.
That’s on the learning side, but what about the overall mastery side? Humans will generally cap out on level of competency and level of attention (which is particularly atrocious for a task like driving a repetitive route) pretty quickly, whereas an AI can learn from literally every anomaly and intervention encountered by the entire fleet and have perfect attention — both of which are impossible for humans since we are not the borg and have attention limits evolved from biological efficiently considerations. So you’re right that learning is woefully less efficient but, if the overall cap on mastery is much higher, with perfect attention, and distributed equally to each robot “driver” in the fleet yielding the average level of competence of each robot driver well in excess of human competence in time, doesn’t that mean AI will be overall better at that task?
But whether an AI system can become "general" (whatever you mean by that) depends a lot on how quickly it can learn new skills. Concerning autonomous driving, current systems are still pretty far from the level of mastery and reliability of human drivers, even somewhat distracted ones.
@ansgarjohn @shivon @elonmusk I do. There is also Waymo. But these things are very heavily engineered, use detailed maps, use all kinds of superhuman sensors, like lidars, and need to be trained with a lot more than 20 hours of data/practice. And still, they are not as flexible and reliable as most humans.
@ylecun @ansgarjohn @shivon @elonmusk but they do technically and statistically drive better than humans... just looking at accident statistics. not as fast in learning yet but pretty sure we'll get there soon
@ylecun @ansgarjohn @shivon @elonmusk unrelatedly, i think many native english speakers especially struggle to grasp certain specificities in expression not uncommon to those that run the language layers of their communicative mind (presumably) in French
@ylecun @ansgarjohn @shivon @elonmusk what musk and shivon don't seem to understand is how we commonly refer to things like driving as a singular act or task when in actuality it's a series of applications of many disparate skills, some general and others highly specialized