ATP Scam Alert @ATPScamAlert
turning this into an ATP scam alert account for public service. sometimes tweet smart stuff HTX Joined November 2023-
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Kind of surprised mkt is trusting Jovic. Shnaider would be Jovic’s biggest win since Eala in NYC. Hasn’t played been playing near her best level in Asia. Uncompetitive loss as a big favorite last week to another lefty (was totally unprepared) doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
LVA/Musetti AO ‘24 not meaningful to Lyon QF imo. Data/form might be noisy for this match on both sides Brussels- venue change could throw a wrench in surface speed. Proceed with caution on w/handicaps based on Qs/R1/R2 surface speed data. Makes fils acclimation less of an issue
Haven’t checked my #s yet, few thoughts: Was hoping for Cobolli in the +150 range. Mkt may get there Don’t understand the Michelsen steam; a lot of the concerns one has for Fils should also be concerns for Michelsen Not much value on LVA vs open imo. Steamchasing likely -EV
@Kylewag58755889 @KnuppelRodney Apparently he takes away the kids’ phones for basketball boot camp every summer. If he gets that level of buy in then he’s the guy
Jacques with a 8.3 performance rating to Nakshima’s 8.0. Nakashima’s serve carrying him again. Impressive return game to close out the set after Jacquet refused to win a game point.
Looks like Cobolli came to play this week. Courts seem to suit him. Serving >60% which has been a key threshold for him.
@SoyChristian Isn’t Basavareddy dealing with injury himself?
@cerundolytics You never know with Mensik. He was the only person to beat sinner in bo3 this year & beat Novak in straights to win Miami during Novak’s best statistical tournament of the year. Italy will be dangerous with their doubles & Musetti as a presumptive #2
@TidbitsTennis The 40 UFE figure was mentioned on the world feed
@LockrightPK Lehecka owns him. Weird that he’s had as much success vs collignon’s big serve as a below avg returner relative to his peers
Books seem to agree.
Musetti will play LVA in Lyon QFs, great draw for the Italian.
@es_dawid @jessica4stein He’s worked on the return, backhand, and defens . When he won Canada this year he was dominant in almost all facets. Largely beat Carlos because of his return game. It’s not there all the time, but when it is he’s actually an elite player
Off a quick check Jovic is 6-2 vs lefties 3-0 vs Eala Wins over VJK, Shanider, Bejlek Losses to LAF and Chwalinksa
Musetti will play LVA in Lyon QFs, great draw for the Italian.
@es_dawid @jessica4stein This is stupid. The serve is such a benefit it makes outweighs much of ADF’s baseline advantages. ADF has success vs bots (although Zverev wasnt 100% in Shanghai) but can barely win games vs Tommy Paul. Tennis is about matchups; in most matchups an elite serve is a trump card.
@es_dawid @jessica4stein According to Elo, TDI’s performance rating, UTR, Shelton grades higher because the serve is important in tennis. I like ADF, think he’s fun to watch & he may be better than Shelton from the baseline but Shelton’s serve/offense/power make him the better player holistically
@es_dawid @jessica4stein I’m not even a Shelton believer but he’s just definitively better. I note ADF has done well in the matchup so far, but Shelton has more slam QFs/titles this year than ADF’s career. Also we can’t call Shelton a scammer without acknowledging ADF scammed Jodar, Hubie, & Foe.
Machac the last two sets had a 1.15 dominance ratio, was the better player by some margin. Slow starts will kill you oj this tour. Machac 0/6 on Bps including 4mps in the 12th game of the third set. 3 of the MPs were winnable and were lost with UFEs
Sucks to see Machac struggle like this. When he was clocking in January, he won Adelaide and would have gone pretty far in AO had he not drawn a red hot Musetti. Will be a tough road for him to get back to the top 20 range given how much he needs to win & how often he’s injured
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