AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

Joined January 2011

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

2 weeks ago

@GlobalProTrader It is astonishing what the general mindset is out there David. People keep trying to convince me that risk assets a.k.a stocks are the "best thing" to own in an inflationary environment. Stunning. It's like there is absolutely no chance on downside in stocks.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

3 months ago

@priceactionlab @tweetatweir @hughesanalytics It has similar but equally profound ramifications on any complex system. Imagine AI agents running a control system; even if an agent takes the correct action for an event, it may trigger a totally decoupled response elsewhere leading to a low probability, high consequence event.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

3 months ago

@priceactionlab @tweetatweir @hughesanalytics Just wait till some vibe coded AI trading bots keep buying the initial dips during a crash - in a vastly complex network, the symmetric response of various players often leads to asymmetrical and catastrophic outcomes

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

4 months ago

@hughesanalytics I think we may be seeing the first stages of cooling down. Meta decided to pivot from data centers to renting out compute. I think there is massive overcapacity in compute power; just matter of time IMHO.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

4 months ago

@hughesanalytics I just put all components for an AMD threadripper with RTX 5090, 256gb DDR5 and premium cooler in a cart - $15k. 🤣🤣. I decided to wait a bit.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

4 months ago

@hughesanalytics Great summary. I am trying to find a balance between running large open source LLMs locally and complex ML algos that need serious compute power. So far, I have found that unified memory architectures work better for LLMs. I don't have a Mac Studio but folks who do swear by it.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

6 months ago

@mikeharrisNY I seriously do not understand this level of obsession with keeping markets artificially elevated. Honestly, what does this even accomplish other than making markets even more fragile??

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

6 months ago

@mikeharrisNY It does not pay to be perma-anything obviously. My concern is that the constant interventions create massive distortions. Imagine the psychological damage when Spitznagel's 80% crash comes around. Complex systems are best left to their own volition without intervention.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

6 months ago

@mikeharrisNY I also think so; there is definitely the feeling of calm before the storm. And I think the real repercussions from the high price of oil are yet to be felt. Every day that this drags on, the supply shock will get more pronounced.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

6 months ago

@mikeharrisNY With Dated Brent at $132 today excluding premium, and Brent futures at $95, there is a big disconnect between what the physical oil market is saying vs paper. There is a high chance that the paper contract surges toward the physical as expiration nears causing havoc elsewhere.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

7 months ago

@mikeharrisNY I like the painful fun kind of things where there is little UI and lot of command line arguments that don't do what u think it will do 🤣 takes me back to my Vax/VMS days.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

7 months ago

@mikeharrisNY I have great things about Ubuntu and Fedora especially if you are a coding geek. I am in the process of setting up Ubuntu for a Python dev environment; should be fun.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

7 months ago

@mikeharrisNY I agree ... Only a few savants like Spitznagel will make insane money when the market craters; most shorts will not even have positions on when the time comes.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

9 months ago

@Stefano_Peron I get laughed at by people when I mention valuation - we are that stage of the markets. Among the younger traders there is total belief that markets will never be allowed to fall. Astonishing times indeed

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

9 months ago

@mikeharrisNY @Stefano_Peron I am truly wondering what Spitznagel is seeing that no one else is in calling for an 80% crash. Timing issues apart, if this administration's clowns are backstopping even very minor pullbacks, I don't know what can truly break this market to reach Mark's targets.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

9 months ago

@mikeharrisNY Prior to 2008, the growth & strength of our country was built on a stable financial system and a reward system which albeit flawed, recognized hard work in building real products. Those have completely disappeared post the GFC. I wonder if we have crossed the point of no return.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

10 months ago

@mikeharrisNY Excellent Mike. I agree that the noise is overwhelming; folks who lack critical thinking will be easy to sway. That said, I think that AGI is still a ways away; humans are still experts at non-linear thinking and as AI evolves more, humans SMEs will go back to closed circles.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

10 months ago

@mikeharrisNY Ran into an old colleague today. I felt his pain when he told me that he had been very conservative with his investments while his nephews were minting money. Best I could do was to tell him that at least he won't be crying tears of pain when this thing crashes without warning.

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AbsoluteDoofus @AbsoluteDoofus

11 months ago

@priceactionlab I find myself spending less and less time here. Your posts are one of the reasons for hanging around. Lately, the overall quality of general posts on this app has become awful.