John @market_sleuth
God is the source of my purpose: Job 42:2 | Started unraveling stock market riddles in 1992🔎📈📉 | I also play synthesizers. 🎹 Annapolis, MD Joined September 2022-
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My feed is now over 50% folks posting account balances. This is where the end of the road of the bull market is coming into view.
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You know what to do 🔽
In 2021, 2022, 2023 & 2024 $SPY had a $3.5 - $7 intraday down move on the last trading day of the 3Q (tomorrow) vs the prior day close. In some cases it closed flat but due to OPEX & rebalancing the intraday drops occur. That’s why I bought $666 Oct 17 expiry puts today.
John retweeted
$SPX - Doji Star: This indecisive price action has preceded visits to the 20DMA. The oscillator isn't overbought, actually is curling up, but the $VIX jumping +5,6% is a serious warning ahead of big economic news tomorrow. The day was green as expected, but weaker than expected.
Incredible when you consider September is the most notorious month for drawdowns.
Incredible when you consider September is the most notorious month for drawdowns.
When a beaver is cutting down a tree it pauses to listen which way the tree might fall. It's knowing your risks before blindly goign forward. A lesson for traders. 💯
Vance announced a shutdown is near certain & $SPY fell 68 cents AH. Yet gurus on X are giving shutdown crash scenarios. 🤦🏼♂️ I bought $SPY puts at the close because the last day of the 3Q is also monthly / quarterly OPEX which is often (not always) a mild down day.
John retweeted
No jobs data this week
These are one’s who agreed to an early retirement 6 months ago.
These are one’s who agreed to an early retirement 6 months ago.
John retweeted
Portfolio rebalancing can pressure the market on last day trading day of Q3. S&P 500 has the weakest record, positive just 38.7% of the time with an average loss of –0.07%. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/796045019…
John retweeted
The S&P 500 has gained 20% each of the past two years, yet it was lower in October both times. You have to go back to the late 1970s the last time it was down three years (actually four) in a row.
John retweeted
One of the most important intermarket relationships right now carries significant relevance for what comes next in terms of risk-on vs. risk-off allocation. Bitcoin is at a critical make-or-break level when measured in gold terms.
It’ll burst. They all do & the new herd will learn the lessons we learned in the dot com era.
Truth is often stranger than fiction. 🔽
John retweeted
I'm not saying it has to, but I really feel like $SPY needs to pullback here before continuing higher to end the year. The weekly RSI looks a bit toppy right now. $690 to $740 remains my HTF target(s) into 2026, and that will be where I'm going massively underweight equities.
John retweeted
So far, still higher lows $VIX $SPX hit higher highs since 9/5
Build-A-Bear was $1.02 in April of 2020. Sometimes there’s stocks that nobody cares about or talks about or posts on X about but they wind up being one of your best long-term holds. 🧸💯
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