Fibonacci Investing⚡️ @FibonacciInves1
Macro Investing...done right. Only personal opinions....not selling anything. Not financial advice. Joined June 2022-
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A reminder on how this can and probably will play out. It only takes TWO consecutive negative reports for everyone with money to pull out of the market.
A reminder on how this can and probably will play out. It only takes TWO consecutive negative reports for everyone with money to pull out of the market.
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It got the nudge...
It got the nudge... https://t.co/hexB2CE4hZ
$TLT may finally be breaking out... 👀
The 10Y just needs a nudge and I could see 100bps melt-off it.
EVERY CYCLE a new generation of investor cheers weak job data because they think a rate cut will more than make up for it. This has been the biggest mistake that has led to countless bubbles. Long $TLT
So...tariffs are indeed positive for bonds. Their net effect is lower debt and inflation. Today's price action shows that.
$TLT - one of the longest setups known to man. Watching and waiting...👀
Deflation...
👀Is this why Buffett went to cash?
The 70s inflation narrative is in the rearview mirror. In fact we should be developing the recessionary narrative of the early 80s. Rent inflation is falling quickly...
👀 Deflation fast approaching... I can confirm that the rental market continues to be soft (first noticed in the beginning of the summer). CPI is very lagging but new leases are what leads the market and the data set. #bonds $TLT
👀 Deflation fast approaching... I can confirm that the rental market continues to be soft (first noticed in the beginning of the summer). CPI is very lagging but new leases are what leads the market and the data set. #bonds $TLT
"Zillow reported this week it would take mortgage rates dropping to about 4.43% to make an average home affordable for a typical buyer". Long $TLT to save housing.
So...here's what the non-farm payrolls look like with revisions. The picture is clear to me. It's inline with Leading Indicator Index as well. Really nice setup for bonds, $TLT. It's been a long steady slowdown but that's what happens when you try to fight macro forces. #macro
$TLT We are so back!
How much did my 2024 Mercedes AMG go up in value with the 15% EU tariffs?
I've been calling for Japan 2.0 for a while. Ironically, when this is done, the deficit is fine as long as spending only increases at the rate you want inflation to increase. Downside for politicians: you can't pull forward demand anymore without instantly creating inflation.
So... Look at the details. Budget estimate for the full year from customs duties (2025). Actual is on track for 150B+ versus 63B estimate. That means the deficit is on track to be much lower.
So... Look at the details. Budget estimate for the full year from customs duties (2025). Actual is on track for 150B+ versus 63B estimate. That means the deficit is on track to be much lower.
Does a tariff revenue estimator exist? That would be super useful for macro.
Rent peaked below last year's levels. High yields are curing high prices. $TLT
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