AtmoSphere Analytics @AtmoAnalytics
Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Intelligence. Home of the MMFS Weather Prediction Suite mesoscaleforecast.com USA Joined May 2023-
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BIG NEWS: We have partnered with @AtmoAnalytics (@Brady_Wx) to bring even more information and prediction to severe weather hazards, including severe wind, hail & tornadoes! Much more info and data to come in the future! If you'd like to check out the data for yourself, go to…
What a crazy day today! Wish I could’ve been out in the field. Here’s a loop of STORM-Net tornado probabilities this afternoon with radar. It had a great day today! Hopefully it saved some lives as well. It certainly will in the future.
Exciting Update from STORM-Net: Zip Code Point Forecasts Now Available! We're thrilled to announce a new feature on our STORM-Net platform that enhances your experience: You can now access forecasts directly by entering a zip code! Here’s how to use this new feature: -Visit our…
STORM-Net v0.5 is being released this morning. It features increased training and some fine-tuning. For reference, here’s the PR-AUC scores of the last few versions of STORM-Net: v0.2: 0.391 v0.3: 0.402 v0.4: 0.424 v0.5 (current): 0.454 This is based on our testing using 27…
Now this is absolutely wild... STORM-Net nearly 3 hours prior to Battle Creek, MI area tornado... forecast issued at 03:10UTC
STORM-Net v0.4 is fully functional today with new features including: -3-hour tornado probabilities, updated every ~10min -1-hour severe hail probabilities Remember that STORM-Net is still in active development and is open to the public for feedback/experimental use!
STORM-Net 3-hour tornado probabilities will be available starting later tonight! There will be a toggle for switching between 1-hour and 3-hour forecasts. The 1-hour version outputs the probability of a tornado within the next hour whereas the 3-hour version outputs the…
STORM-Net v0.4 is in preliminary testing and should be available by next week. The upgrade will include: -3hr probabilities for tornadoes/sigtors, updated every 5 minutes -1hr hail/sig hail outputs added -Improved algorithm across all model branches
Here's STORM-Net tornado outputs 1 hour and 45 minutes PRIOR to the PDS tornado warning being issued for the #wiwx supercell this evening. The first was 10min prior to ANY tornado warning being issued for that cluster... and well before any rotation. Green outline in STORM-Net…
Sig contours have been added to STORM-Net's interactive user interface! This is active on both wind and tornado plots and are denoted by a green dashed outline (denoting 50% of sig wind/sig tor). See samples below from the wind event on 8-27-23 and Cookeville, TN tornado.
STORM-Net severe wind probabilities are now available on the site and on the interactive user interface! Just press the "Tornado" drop-down on the top left and press "Severe wind". This outputs at the same time as the tornado outputs (same model) and predicts the probability…
12z HazCast is highlighting parts of the deep south for the potential for tornadoes on Wednesday afternoon.
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What a crazy day today! Wish I could’ve been out in the field. Here’s a loop of STORM-Net tornado probabilities this afternoon with radar. It had a great day today! Hopefully it saved some lives as well. It certainly will in the future.
Exciting Update from STORM-Net: Zip Code Point Forecasts Now Available! We're thrilled to announce a new feature on our STORM-Net platform that enhances your experience: You can now access forecasts directly by entering a zip code! Here’s how to use this new feature: -Visit our…
Great shot here by @laude_sam . Here's STORM-Net's tornado probability outputs leading up to this (photo taken at 21:01UTC).. can see a build-up in probabilities from 30 minutes in advance for that area.
Looking north at the tornado earlier near Durand IL. @NWSChicago @ReedTimmerUSA @CharlieBourdo
Now this is absolutely wild... STORM-Net nearly 3 hours prior to Battle Creek, MI area tornado... forecast issued at 03:10UTC
Guess I should’ve waited a few minutes to grab the updated SPC outlook… looks like it could be an active afternoon/night!
STORM-Net v0.4 is fully functional today with new features including: -3-hour tornado probabilities, updated every ~10min -1-hour severe hail probabilities Remember that STORM-Net is still in active development and is open to the public for feedback/experimental use!
STORM-Net 3-hour tornado probabilities will be available starting later tonight! There will be a toggle for switching between 1-hour and 3-hour forecasts. The 1-hour version outputs the probability of a tornado within the next hour whereas the 3-hour version outputs the…
STORM-Net v0.4 is in preliminary testing and should be available by next week. The upgrade will include: -3hr probabilities for tornadoes/sigtors, updated every 5 minutes -1hr hail/sig hail outputs added -Improved algorithm across all model branches
Here's STORM-Net tornado outputs 1 hour and 45 minutes PRIOR to the PDS tornado warning being issued for the #wiwx supercell this evening. The first was 10min prior to ANY tornado warning being issued for that cluster... and well before any rotation. Green outline in STORM-Net…
Sig contours have been added to STORM-Net's interactive user interface! This is active on both wind and tornado plots and are denoted by a green dashed outline (denoting 50% of sig wind/sig tor). See samples below from the wind event on 8-27-23 and Cookeville, TN tornado.
Severe hail and flash flooding outputs are also coming soon!
STORM-Net severe wind probabilities are now available on the site and on the interactive user interface! Just press the "Tornado" drop-down on the top left and press "Severe wind". This outputs at the same time as the tornado outputs (same model) and predicts the probability…
The 12z HazCast from @Brady_Wx shows a chance of an isolated tornado on Wednesday afternoon.
12z HazCast is highlighting parts of the deep south for the potential for tornadoes on Wednesday afternoon.
STORM-Net Evaluation vs NWS Tornado Warnings: On the test cases in the STORM-Net archive, both v0.1 and v0.2 perform better than NWS tornado warnings when it comes to all 3 major metrics (POD, FAR, CSI). This test was done using a 45% STORM-Net threshold and a 60min lead-time.
Decided to do an in-depth test of STORM-NET on the deadly Rolling Fork tornado of last year. The results here are absolutely mind-blowing. STORM-NET had the Rolling Fork area in an elevated risk of a SigTor (ef2+) 8 minutes before the storm even had a tornado warning on it, and…
00z MMFS-AI HazCast Tornado and Severe Wind probabilities for Monday night/Tuesday morning, as well as QPF at 3z Tuesday.
Another test-case (meaning the model hasn't even seen the data from this event in training, it is used for testing).. Mayfield tornado about 30 min prior to the tornado hitting Mayfield. It does exceptionally well with strong tornadoes that are on the ground.