Convective Chronicles @ConvChronicles
One-stop shop for in-depth forecast discussions and case studies for upcoming and past severe weather events across the United States. youtube.com/ConvectiveChro… Joined April 2022-
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LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=eYz8BA… Forecast discussion on an active couple of days of severe wx today and tomorrow. Today, supercells should form along a cold front and dryline from NE/IA southward with an all-hazards risk, while KS southward looks to be the favored corridor tomorrow
After a brief lull today, another active stretch of severe wx is expected starting tomorrow (Tues 4-30) across the central Plains/Midwest. Severe storms are expected ahead of a cold front tomorrow before a classic dryline supercell day takes shape on Wed. All hazards possible.
Outbreak sequence winding down but still have some issues to tackle today. Ongoing QLCS will continue into the afternoon across E TX w/ tornado/wind risk. Conditional risk of redevelopment behind QLCS across S MO/E OK/W AR but any storms that fire will pose low all-hazards risk.
I'm cases with broad warm sectors and weak ascent it's critical to look for other features that can provide vertical motion. Deeper mixing from insolation and BL warming farther south and eventual differential heating. Baroclinicity from the early morning storms to the north.
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=yTdpsd… Forecast update on the potential for a significant tornado outbreak across the southern Plains today. An initial round of storms with an all-hazards risk will give way to a second round of supercells posing a risk for intense, long-track tornadoes.
Bona fide tornado outbreak today with several intense tornadoes, particularly across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 63 tornado reports and counting. Shows what can happen when all the ingredients are in place.
Given increasing confidence in dryline storm initiation, SPC has added a significant tornado risk area and extended the highest significant hail risk area southward across SW MO/E OK/NW AR/NE TX for today.
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=-YElk3… Forecast update for the significant severe weather setup today and tomorrow from the Midwest into the Plains. Strong tornadoes and very large hail are possible both days.
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=akvJdm… Forecast discussion on the potential severe weather outbreak sequence set to begin today across the central/southern Plains. Significant tornadoes and very large hail will be the greatest threats in multiple areas over the next several days.
Some pretty strong wording from NWS Wichita regarding Saturday’s potentially significant severe threat. NWS offices rarely use such strong wording, but Saturday is shaping up to be a high-impact day across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in particular.
Multi-day severe event begins in earnest tomorrow. Significant tornadoes, giant hail possible across parts of KS/OK/TX tomorrow before threat shifts E Fri. Second trough moves in Sat-Sun w/ some potential for a tornado outbreak contingent on early convection. More info to come.
Repeat of yesterday possible today in W TX, where SPC has outlined Slight Risk (level 2/5). Despite weak forcing, isolated supercells may fire along dryline this PM. Main threats large hail/damaging wind; tornado or two possible given better moisture/low-level shear vs yesterday.
In a rare move, SPC has initiated a special upgrade to the Day 3 outlook, bumping up Thursday’s risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) from southwest Kansas to western Oklahoma & the eastern Texas Panhandle given increasing confidence in large/giant hail & perhaps strong/intense tornadoes.
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=vKSb06… Initial forecast discussion on the upcoming stretch of potentially significant severe weather across the Plains and Midwest set to begin Thursday, April 25. We'll compare and contrast model data to come up with potential outcomes for these setups.
A supercell or two with a threat for large to very large hail and damaging winds is possible today at the intersection of a developing dryline and slow-moving cold front in northwest Texas, where SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5).
Difference between last severe event (4-15/16) & upcoming one: moisture quality. Last setup, warm sector had shallow moist layer beneath deep warm/dry layer...hostile for robust dryline devel. Tonight's sounding @ Brownsville had very deep moisture, will cont to advect N this wk
While model discrepancy remains, forecast for multi-day severe event on track, as series of troughs should move into central/southern US, interacting w/ ample moisture over several-day stretch beginning Thurs 4-25. I hope to have initial forecast discussion video out by tmrw AM.
Quick update on tornado stats for 2024 so far: -Below avg for 2024 in total -Below avg March (66 reports vs climo avg of 92) -Avg to above avg April (184 reports vs climo avg of 212, still 1.5 wks to go) -Clear hotspots: Midwest/OH Valley, Gulf Coast; sporadic activity elsewhere
The forecast remains on track for a potential multi-day severe weather event toward the end of this coming week. SPC has outlined risk areas for Thursday and Friday (April 25-26) as a potent trough interacts with rich Gulf moisture.
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@ConvChronicles Fair enough. I enjoy the analysis vids you post. Thanks for the work you do.
Imagine having a minimum 4 year degree in meteorology/atmoshperic science, among other schooling required to work for the NWS/SPC and a bunch of amateurs that put the name “storm chaser” in front of their name bash you for how you do your job….. I hate humans and this world.
WATCH‼️ NEW VIDEO OF MARIETTA TORNADO We just got this viewer video as they just miss the tornado as they're driving away. This is the tornado that killed one person in Marietta and hit the nearby Dollar Tree distribution center. @OKCFOX bit.ly/3JBFF0a
Finally got around to editing the GoPro footage so here it is, a shorter muted video of the large tornado entering Sulphur just before 10:30 pm on Saturday night. Continued thoughts and prayers are with everyone who’s been affected by this substantial multiday tornado outbreak…
@ConvChronicles That is one of the craziest tornado events since 2013. Like the amount of warnings was crazy and the shear number of huge Oklahoma tornadoes was just crazy as well. Have to give the props to the SPC and models, they nailed this and the NWS Norman/Tulsa for keeping up with this.
Watching an all hazards threat tomorrow for the Midwest ahead of the cold front. Modest mid level flow with embedded shortwaves will serve as forcing for this. Better chance towards NE/IA as support is better
@ConvChronicles I think this could become enhanced risk it's possible
@ConvChronicles Wednesday looking especially interesting with the LLJ building in quite well past 7pm cst. Literally amazing the event for tomorrow is basicslly the same SPC outline risk zone as the one 8 days ago and the one from the other day. What a hot zone that area is...both good and bad.
@ConvChronicles @SCweather_wx Thanks buddy.
I didn’t think I would be a bit emotional leaving OKC this morning. I guess I found my people & I adore them. I will have to come back more often.
Close up on the Madisonville, TX wedge tornado, 6:28 PM CDT. #txwx Full video: youtube.com/watch?v=hVvXuv…
The wx community is so toxic, and right now particularly. Right now all I see is bickering over driving, calling the day a bust too early, rating the tornadoes, etc. It's sad honestly. It would be nice if we all showed more respect and grace, and had more humility.
Bridge Creek, #okwx Better than yesterday tbh
@BradArnoldWX FWIW- until I started watching @ConvChronicles YouTube channel, I had no clue abt the SPC forecasts and wouldn’t have known abt the downgrade. I think the majority of the general public has no clue, either. Too many don’t even pay attn to watches/warnings.
After official dmg assessments and reviewing my footage, I can confirm I saw my first tornado on 4/26/24! Me and my dad remember seeing this cone, but we were too far to know for sure whether or not it had touched down. Turns out it had, producing EF1 dmg N of Hubbard TX! #txwx
April 26th Waco, TX tornado video is up. It shows the moment I first saw tornado #1 clearly, to it's final rope out stage. It also includes a short glimpse of the 2nd, potentially strong, tornado I saw through the trees before the road network cut me off youtu.be/spvZMef8Odg
On track so far, and we’re just getting started. 🌪️
Confidence continues to increase that the period from late April into mid-May will feature a very favorable pattern for severe weather across the Central US. Subseasonal forecasting processes have hinted at this for a while now, and we're getting close to show time.
Full video of Ardmore, Ok tornado crossing highway 70 with its corresponding damage. @NWSNorman
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