AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

| Measuring stress before it has a headline | Not financial advice in any capacity | Est. June 1, 2025 Joined September 2025

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

3 minutes ago

@goodalexander Soon…

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@chamath Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

4 hours ago

@unusual_whales Our pinned post ab $CORZ and $CRWV will make this much easier to believe

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

10 hours ago

@chuckmaxisaylor Thank you for pointing that out

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

10 hours ago

Our BTC model has reduced bitcoin exposure by 97% and has a target exposure of 3% to bitcoin:native Filtered bull confidence is below floor as BTC is 7% below its 90-day high ($86,521). This is the crash-protection state, our model sits out drawdowns at the cost of missing the choppy first innings of a rally.

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

10 hours ago

@MacroCharts And usually, the crowd is dead wrong...

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

10 hours ago

@FoFtyTrader Swear he's just there to be bullish when nobody is bullish

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

5 days ago

CCC & Lower continue to rip higher, with the last print bringing the effective yield to 17.66% The tail is pricing in meaningful defaults in riskier credit, with AAA and BBB complacency, risk seems to be contained to these borrowers. As we stated in our first convexity newsletter, this is priced for a credit event, and there has not been one; it seems as if one is looming over this market.

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

5 days ago

Update on the Kospi complacency

AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

2 weeks ago

What’s interesting is the Kospi just broke right through its 52-week moving average. The Situational Awareness blowup weekly candle tagged the 52-week MA and reversed. I am not much of a chartist, but when you look at the chart, the Situational Awareness reversal sure looks like

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

5 days ago

“Default rates in private credit may be higher than reported” - Moody’s Is that good?

AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

4 weeks ago

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

2 days ago

Into close CCCs show weakness while BBBs and AAAs yields move down. As stress from riskier borrowers continues, credit sensitive companies with riskier ratings will continue to sell off.

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

a day ago

Check out our look into $CRWV $IREN $NBIS and more!

AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

a day ago

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

a day ago

$QQQ fell -7.5% since the 10Y yield topped at 5.365% Midterms are coming up, FOMC decision this week, and reports of escalation of war (what would you know). All on top of the market sitting in fear territory. Combined with the uncertainty surrounding the AI trade and midterm elections, the market could be heading toward more downside until midterms.

AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

2 months ago

5.25% 10 Year yield will be the breaking point

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

11 hours ago

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AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch

a day ago

@GravityRsch I don’t think it will be as bad as most make it to be. A correction after a massive run up with insane debt/equity issuance with this much uncertainty is healthy