Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics
Longtime Institutional Bond Trader, Market Maker, Portfolio Manager, Chartist & Part -Time Economist|Personal Finance Basics & Chartology |Not Investment Advice Joined October 2023-
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The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up nearly 39% of the index, the highest concentration on record. bilello.blog/newsletter
The top 6 companies now have a combined market cap of $20 trillion. Larger than the GDP of China, the world's 2nd largest economy.
Leading indicators suggest the US unemployment rate is set to rise: In July, 11% of small businesses said poor sales were their most important problem, the highest share since the 2020 pandemic. This share has doubled over the last 7 months. In previous economic cycles, this…
UGLY PAYROLL REPORT This may be like last year when they probably wish they cut in July and did a 50Bp catch-up cut in September. They may plant the seed for 50 at Jackson Hole.
And if the front end plumbing (Bill supply, MMKT demand, REPO market) is overwhelmed and unable to absorb the extra supply of Bills, the FOMC will be forced to act. Bessent knows this is another way to force the Feds hand.
And if the front end plumbing (Bill supply, MMKT demand, REPO market) is overwhelmed and unable to absorb the extra supply of Bills, the FOMC will be forced to act. Bessent knows this is another way to force the Feds hand.
If you have kids, pay attention... The new tax bill significantly upgraded 529 savings plans. Here's everything that's changing:
Fed Funds Rate should just be the 2Yr Treasury yield. Let the markets decide where the front end of the curve should be, not a small group of economists always looking backward at economic data. Markets look forward. FOMC usually follows the 2Yr Treasury loosely anyway.
Fed Funds Rate should just be the 2Yr Treasury yield. Let the markets decide where the front end of the curve should be, not a small group of economists always looking backward at economic data. Markets look forward. FOMC usually follows the 2Yr Treasury loosely anyway.
Auctions have gone ok given the bond Volatility. TICS Data out Friday, but it’s March Data. The June18th release should be interesting.
And we have full employment right now. Unemployment rate was 4.2% last month. Q1 2002 unemployment rate was closer to 6%.
And we have full employment right now. Unemployment rate was 4.2% last month. Q1 2002 unemployment rate was closer to 6%.
Tariffs will weaken growth faster than raising inflation. As company margins tighten, because they won’t be able to pass on higher costs to a financially strapped consumer, they will cut costs=Layoffs. Employment # s have a habit of turning ugly quickly. = Deep Fed Cuts
Tariffs will weaken growth faster than raising inflation. As company margins tighten, because they won’t be able to pass on higher costs to a financially strapped consumer, they will cut costs=Layoffs. Employment # s have a habit of turning ugly quickly. = Deep Fed Cuts
And opportunities to put dry powder to work at cheaper levels. When people were Panic Selling April 7th and 8th, it was a good time to add. Hopefully we retest those levels again.
And opportunities to put dry powder to work at cheaper levels. When people were Panic Selling April 7th and 8th, it was a good time to add. Hopefully we retest those levels again.
Lower Growth & Lower Oil Prices will eventually equal Lower Rates
Good Number for the FOMC Job demand across many sectors and muted wage growth. That will change next month as the Tariff effect hits job growth. Also BLS and Gov’t Jobs….. Paid leave/severance is counted as Employed.
FICO scores are dropping with student loan late payments now being shown. BNPL(Buy No Pay Later) now being reported on credit reports. Banks now realizing the consumer has even more debt than they thought. Thinking we will start seeing credit limits being cut.
FICO scores are dropping with student loan late payments now being shown. BNPL(Buy No Pay Later) now being reported on credit reports. Banks now realizing the consumer has even more debt than they thought. Thinking we will start seeing credit limits being cut.
Wage growth cools The employment cost index is seen at the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth Wages + salaries for private-sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations was +1.1% in Q1 The Y/Y rate fell to 3.6% (vs 3.8% in Q4 and 4.2% last year)
Bear markets pale in comparison to bull markets, both in market movement and duration. A good reminder for every long-term investor.
This is awesome. I use notes to write from voice to text. And save a ton in notes. My notes are filled with articles, market and economic data, thoughts, lyrics,🎸, memes and now that I’m thinking of it, look like the discombobulated writings of a mad man. Great tools here. Thx
This is awesome. I use notes to write from voice to text. And save a ton in notes. My notes are filled with articles, market and economic data, thoughts, lyrics,🎸, memes and now that I’m thinking of it, look like the discombobulated writings of a mad man. Great tools here. Thx
End goal slightly lower tariffs on exports -slightly higher tariffs on imports And the uncertainty will = a few quarters of slower growth and eventually lower rates to term out maturing Treasuries. 2018-19 less severe trade war, S&P dropped 20%. 6mos later made it all back.
End goal slightly lower tariffs on exports -slightly higher tariffs on imports And the uncertainty will = a few quarters of slower growth and eventually lower rates to term out maturing Treasuries. 2018-19 less severe trade war, S&P dropped 20%. 6mos later made it all back.
I’m just seriously confused. So is the end goal to keep tariffs on to raise revenue…. Or make trade deals that drastically reduces tariff revenue. This income tax goal is a pipe dream imo
I’m just seriously confused. So is the end goal to keep tariffs on to raise revenue…. Or make trade deals that drastically reduces tariff revenue. This income tax goal is a pipe dream imo
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