CoachNess @CoachNessN

Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist. But I am. You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data. Yes, it is true that tropical cyclones (TCs) operate as thermodynamic heat engines sustained by ocean-to-atmosphere enthalpy fluxes, including sensible and latent heat transfer, with latent heat released during condensation, which maintain the deep convection. The higher the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are, the higher the likelihood for TC intensification. However, SST anomalies represent departures from climatological averages rather than absolute SSTs. That means below-average SSTs can still support an intense hurricane. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico (or Gulf of America; call it whatever you want) is warm enough during late August, September, and early October every year to support a hurricane of category four or five strength. That has always been the case and it always will be. I hypothesized that Gulf SSTAs don't really affect TC strength as commonly claimed because of this fact. So, I decided to investigate this question to provide a numerical answer. All science is numbers. For this analysis, I decided to use the NOAA National Hurricane Center's (NHC) HURDAT2 database, which contains historical TC tracks (coordinates), maximum sustained wind speeds (Vmax), and pressures, which contains data spanning 1851 to 2025. I then employed the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSSTv5) dataset from NOAA, which contains monthly SST estimates on a 2° × 2° grid since January 1854. So, my analysis must be restricted from 1854 to 2025. I identified 269 TCs that attained hurricane strength (≥64 kt / ≥74 mph) within the Gulf during the study period. Of this subset, 70 originated within the Gulf itself, while the remaining 199 developed elsewhere, primarily in the Atlantic or the Caribbean Sea, before entering the Gulf. For each hurricane, I determined its highest Vmax while inside the Gulf specifically. I then compared that intensity against the mean SSTA (calculated by evaluating SST departures from the 1991–2020 baseline) sampled along its Gulf track, using the monthly ERSSTv5 data. Monthly SST data is not perfect, but it provides us a fairly good estimate because water has a high heat capacity, meaning it takes a lot of energy gain in order to warm a body of water and a lot of energy loss to cool it. In layman terms, SSTs are usually rather slow to change from week-to-week. The results show essentially no linear relationship between Gulf SST anomalies and the maximum sustained wind speeds attained by hurricanes within the basin. Across all 269 Gulf hurricanes, the Pearson correlation coefficient was just r = +0.036, which indicates an extremely weak positive correlation. The coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.001, meaning that variations in SST anomalies explained approximately 0.1% of the observed variation in peak hurricane intensity under a simple linear regression model. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was similarly negligible at ρ = +0.012. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation yielded a p-value of 0.555, well above the conventional statistical significance threshold of 0.05. Therefore, the observed relationship is not statistically significant. The scatterplot below illustrates this quite clearly. Hurricanes attaining relatively modest maximum intensities of 65–85 kt occurred across a broad range of SSTAs, as did much stronger hurricanes exceeding 100–120 kt. Some of the most intense hurricanes in the dataset occurred during periods when SSTs along their Gulf tracks were below the 1991–2020 average. Conversely, some hurricanes traversing anomalously warm waters never intensified beyond minimal hurricane strength. In layman terms? An anomalously warm Gulf has no meaningful correlation to Gulf hurricane intensity.

VoteGOP @BoyBiloxi

3 days ago

@ChrisMartzWX NBC’s Al Roker declared that Isaias was caused by climate change warming the waters of the Gulf 5-6 degrees above normal. What say you? (I think it’s hogwash, myself.)

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For decades, Canada has been seen as a 'model nation', internationally renowned for its high standard of living, safety & friendliness. 🇨🇦 Recently, it's been making headlines for the wrong reasons. Unaffordability, homelessness & addiction, rising crime, and a healthcare system so stretched that thousands are dying as they await treatment. 'Broken Country' is a new documentary that explores what went wrong in Canada, and what can be done. Watch it here: brokencountry.com

Hillary doesn’t turn comments on because she doesn’t stand for anything very long. We have the history to prove her hypocrisy.

Luke Rudkowski @Lukewearechange

3 days ago

On National T.V the U.S showed Gadhafi getting a knife up his rear end bleeding being tortured on national television This is how Hillary responded to it

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Time to bring this back out: We MAGA Americans don't care about what makes you boo. [Like a terrorist who got a trial being shot to death by a firing squad on a livestream]. We've SEEN what makes YOU CHEER. We literally do not care what you think.

Chud Dudley, Eldritch Misfit @TrvthfvlTreason

3 days ago

Leftists: Public executions are barbaric Also leftists:

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@MarkGeistSWP @drawandstrike She won’t dare turn her comments on.

Hi Seth, thank you for all you're doing. My husband and I have been to a couple of your events in California, and we really appreciate your work. If you have a moment, could you help me understand why so much advertising money is going to Clarissa Cervantes? She's running against Leticia again in District 58. It's not my district, but Leticia supported me when I worked to recall a school board member, so her race matters to me. Is there a push to make the Cervantes family a new political dynasty in California? I haven't seen a single ad raising concerns about her DUI record, but every time I'm on YouTube or my kids turn on the TV, there's another ad supporting Clarissa. Thanks so much for your time.

@_joshpray The true environmentalists.

I believe all GWOT veterans have a sacred duty to tell everyone they know about the grotesque mistreatment of women that is the norm in Islamic societies. We all saw it. We all know what it is. We all need to talk about it. This may be the only way we can bring Leftist women to their senses. My article explains.

Cynical Publius @CynicalPublius

4 days ago

x.com/i/article/2108…

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Sergeant York. Great book to read with your kids.

Echoes of War @EchoesofWarYT

4 days ago

108 years ago today, a red-headed farmer from Pall Mall, Tennessee did something in the Argonne Forest that still doesn't seem real. Alvin York grew up dirt poor, a hard drinker and brawler, until a religious conversion in his twenties changed his whole life. When the draft

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108 years ago today, a red-headed farmer from Pall Mall, Tennessee did something in the Argonne Forest that still doesn't seem real. Alvin York grew up dirt poor, a hard drinker and brawler, until a religious conversion in his twenties changed his whole life. When the draft notice came in 1917, he asked to be exempted as a conscientious objector. His church opposed war and so did he. The Army said no. His battalion commander spent hours going through the Bible with him, trying to convince him that a man could fight and still be right with God. York went home on leave, prayed on it for two days on a mountainside, and came back ready. On the morning of October 8, 1918, York was one of 17 men sent to slip behind German lines and knock out machine guns near Chatel-Chehery, France. They surprised a group of Germans and captured them. Then the machine guns on the ridge above opened up. Six Americans were killed instantly and three more went down wounded, including the sergeant in charge. That left Cpl. York in command of seven men, most of them pinned flat guarding prisoners. So York went to work. Every time a German gunner raised his head to fire, York shot him. He'd been shooting turkeys in the Tennessee hills since he was a kid and he was not missing at that range. When six Germans charged him with bayonets, he drew his pistol and dropped all six, starting with the last man and working forward, so the ones in front wouldn't realize what was happening. A German officer, Lt. Paul Vollmer, emptied his pistol at York and missed every shot. Watching his men fall one after another, Vollmer finally called out in English and offered to surrender the whole position if York would stop shooting. York agreed. Then he used Vollmer to order other German positions to give up as they marched back through the woods. By the time he reached American lines, York had killed 25 men and was herding 132 prisoners in front of him with a handful of survivors. When a general told him he'd heard York captured the whole German army, York said "No sir. I got only 132." He was promoted to sergeant and received the Medal of Honor. New York threw him a ticker tape parade. Companies offered him a fortune to endorse their products and he turned almost all of it down. He went home to Tennessee, married his sweetheart, and spent years raising money to build a school for kids in the mountains who had no shot at an education. When Hollywood finally made his story in 1941, he agreed partly to fund a Bible school. Gary Cooper won the Oscar for playing him. The man who didn't want to go to war became the most famous American soldier of it.

Sex offenders and repeat violent offenders should be in a national searchable database.

Brian Cates - Political Columnist & Pundit @drawandstrike

4 days ago

Ask yourself what has prevented states or even the feds from having a registry for REPEAT VIOLENT OFFENDERS? Who was preventing any such registry between states/counties/feds until now? I keep saying this "criminal justice system" was deliberately crafted by people who want

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@usedgov @AAGDhillon California schools.

@joelpollak California schools are lost in safety and sanity.

There are more than just Senate races and Congress at stake in 2026. These ballot initiatives could permanently remake your state.

The Federalist @FDRLST

5 days ago

Here’s Every Major 2026 Ballot Initiative You Need To Know About thefederalist.com/2026/10/07/her…

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This is one of my favorite charts. 📊 Regular gas prices in 🔴 states vs. 🔵 states. Gasoline prices have risen for everyone since the Iran War started in February. There is absolutely no doubt that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz (which, as of the time I'm writing this, is improving) was the cause. But regardless of recent price trends amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, prices tend to be cheaper than the national average and median (a more appropriate metric) in red states. On the other hand, blue states tend to run more expensive, the exceptions of course being Colorado (a surprise to me), Maryland (barely), and my home state of Virginia. These differences primarily boil down to gas tax rates. Democrat-run states have higher tax rates because, well, Democrats like higher taxes. This should not be a shocker to anyone. California takes the cake, though. The gas tax rate of $0.63 / gallon is the highest in the United States, and environmental regulations (e.g., cap-and-trade and their low-carbon fuel standard), which add another $0.21 to $0.26 / gallon, impose significant burdens on consumers. Assuming that you drive a vehicle with a 26-gallon tank and fill up every 1.5 weeks, on average, Californians spend ~$2,335.36 more per year on gas than Indianians. Left-wing energy policies are nuts.

Funny that @ShawnRyan762 says that I "kept referring to the "SARS Vaccine" rather than COVID 19. He never understood that COVID 19 - based on the @WHO definition WAS symptoms. The lethal injection was the SPIKE PROTEIN mRNA. He kept the interview from airing because he DIDN'T fact check and now the world knows.... Oh, and he didn't want to jeopardize his YouTube ascendency - but that's not too born again sounding. Keeping truth hidden for fear of losing status. At 33 minutes...and watch his neck and eyes. His CIA training can't hide the truth. youtube.com/watch?v=UQ3O04…

@FeminaStudiosa Shorter than this, I believe.

@SageThatOne @LLThecrusader I’m aware. Married 17 years and I don’t have to work. My husband takes great care of me and I do the same for him. That’s the point.

Works 70 hours a week and does bedtime. Sounds like he is helping. She has time to whore herself around, and children nap and grow out of needing 24 hour care. None of these “jobs” are exhausting and there is downtime in between. You sound just as lazy as she is. Probably single too.

@pumpius @NFAdotcrypto