Codera Analytics @CoderaAnalytics
Subscribe to weekly newsletter: https://t.co/gi5TNhaXlQ Joined October 2021-
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Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Jacques Quass De Vos updates our SA Trade Uncertainty Index, showing it remains elevated. codera.co.za/sa-trade-uncer…
Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Takudzwa Mutetwa shows that the JSE has risen about 50 percent more than SA export prices since 2000. US stocks have increased multiple times more compared to commodity prices or measures of US terms of trade codera.co.za/jse-to-sa-expo…
Our @CoderaAnalytics core inflation measure continues to suggest that there is more broad-based inflation pressure than implied by the Statistics SA core or trimmed mean measures of underlying inflation. codera.co.za/cpi-common-sug…
In this @CoderaAnalytics policy brief, we propose a new measure of inflation dispersion for SA and show that inflation dispersion describes divergences in inflation from the inflation target. codera.co.za/a-new-measure-…
Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Cynan Cleaver shows that recent economic indicators for SA suggest broad-based weakness across key areas of the economy and potential downside risks ahead codera.co.za/recent-develop…
The World Bank has ranked South African ports right at the bottom of their list of best performing ports. They ranked Port of Cape Town 400th, Port Elizabeth 395th, Durban 403rd (lowest globally), and Ngqura 402nd out of the 403 global ports considered. codera.co.za/world-bank-ran…
@CoderaAnalytics' term premium model shows that the decline in long bond yield over 2025 has reflected a fall in average short rate expectations over the long term, as well as the term premium (which captures credit, liquidity and inflation risk premia). codera.co.za/why-have-sa-bo…
@CoderaAnalytics' estimate that the market-implied neutral rate is closer to 7%. SARB has 2.8% for 2025 after adjusting for inflation (5.8% assuming a 3% target or slightly above 6% if inflation expectations are assumed to be partly backward-looking). codera.co.za/what-has-been-…
Historical ASISA data is available on EconData. EconData now makes it possible to download time series of holdings in individual Collective Investment Schemes. Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by @AidanHorn1 shows the breakdown of local holdings by aggregate grouping.
Today’s @CoderaAnalytics blog post provides a version of my @BDliveSA article with Jacques Quass De Vos, with extensive links, in which we argue that SA's geo-economic gamble with China and Russia does not make economic sense. codera.co.za/sas-geo-econom…
There has been some consolidation in the SA farming industry with a decline in the absolute number of commercial farmers over time. @CoderaAnalytics codera.co.za/number-of-farm…
SARB’s July 2025 projections imply 100 bps of cuts possible by end of next year, a major change in the projections relative to earlier forecasts. This will require a lot of luck (e.g. ZAR strengthening) or govt's help @CoderaAnalytics codera.co.za/sarb-policy-ra…
@CoderaAnalytics expects SARB will need to raise its CPI forecasts as significant administered price and government-related inflation is largely baked in for the next 12 months. Contact us for a demo or to subscribe. codera.co.za/we-expect-sarb…
Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Oliver Guest shows that more than two thirds of the CPI basket has historically risen by more than 3 percent. See all the charts here: codera.co.za/updated-diffus…
Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post shows inflation expectations are continuing to decline, but as we have argued, it has historically taken extended periods of below de jure target inflation to bring expectations down. See post for links: codera.co.za/are-inflation-…
SA’s pivot to China & Russia risks economic isolation. 🇨🇳🇷🇺 Despite Brics rhetoric, Western partners still dominate trade & FDI. Weak export sophistication, anti-growth regulations & declining productivity threaten SA’s long-term prosperity. businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202…
Today's @CoderaAnalytics post by Cynan Cleaver shows the cumulative increase in the price level since July 2017. The price level is up by more than 40% since then. Had SA achieved avg inflation of 3% over this period instead, the price level would have been around 15% lower
Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Oliver Guest shows that while price increases of transport cost and clothing inflation have been relatively low, inflation of other essential goods and services have been substantially higher.
In today's @BDliveSA Jacques Quass De Vos and I argue that SA's geo-economic gamble with China and Russia does not make economic sense: businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202…
Today’s @CoderaAnalytics post by Oliver Guest shows that anti-core inflation has been significantly higher than core inflation in South Africa since 2009, and has picked up for the last three months. codera.co.za/anticore-infla…
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