Dan Niles @DanielTNiles
Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice. danniles.com Joined October 2013-
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$PI & RFID market growth continues to be my favorite multi-year theme. Besides large EPS revision higher, two major future positives: 1) earlier opportunity in food 2) potential for their silicon in mobile phones due to European Digital Product Passport and Food legislation.
$PI & RFID market growth continues to be my favorite multi-year theme. Besides large EPS revision higher, two major future positives: 1) earlier opportunity in food 2) potential for their silicon in mobile phones due to European Digital Product Passport and Food legislation.
$META deserves penalty box for now. Q2 rev guide miss, while FY expense & capex increase on push to be “leading AI company in the world.” But stock now ~18x CY25 PE for still one of fastest megacap growth rates. Election & Olympic spend coming. Expect good 2H risk to reward.
$META deserves penalty box for now. Q2 rev guide miss, while FY expense & capex increase on push to be “leading AI company in the world.” But stock now ~18x CY25 PE for still one of fastest megacap growth rates. Election & Olympic spend coming. Expect good 2H risk to reward.
Prior to this one, $TXN (2024 Top5 Pick) forward revs had been lowered in all 6 prior reports following the Covid driven surge. Similarly, the recovery could last a long time & investors should come to appreciate their domestic capacity expansion as tensions with China increase.
Yesterday was just an oversold bounce. Today’s further gains combined w/ bond & credit rally, $USD weakness, & broadening bounce in AI names despite AI related $CDNS guiding down Q2 is encouraging for tech into earnings. Is excess mkt optimism lowered enough w/ recent decline?
Yesterday was just an oversold bounce. Today’s further gains combined w/ bond & credit rally, $USD weakness, & broadening bounce in AI names despite AI related $CDNS guiding down Q2 is encouraging for tech into earnings. Is excess mkt optimism lowered enough w/ recent decline?
With @carlquintanilla @SaraEisen 11am ET. Expect NT mkt bounce given some oversold conditions. But punitive reaction to tech results so far (ie $TSLA deliveries, $TSM, $ASML, $NFLX, $SMCI lack of +pre) & concerns about ROI on AI investments keep us selective on earnings this wk.
With @carlquintanilla @SaraEisen 11am ET. Expect NT mkt bounce given some oversold conditions. But punitive reaction to tech results so far (ie $TSLA deliveries, $TSM, $ASML, $NFLX, $SMCI lack of +pre) & concerns about ROI on AI investments keep us selective on earnings this wk.
$NFLX reports today. Stock reaction to expectations of beat & raise qtr will be viewed as bellweather for Mag7 starting next wk despite fundamentally not having much in common. Still believe selectivity is key for Q1 earnings & rest of yr especially w/ Fed potentially on hold.
This is the 3rd straight higher than expected CPI. “To the extent Fed officials underreacted to the January and February inflation readings, there is a greater risk that a hot inflation number for March could lead to an overreaction.” – WSJ’s “Fed Whisperer” @NickTimiraos
Saw this on my PC when I sat down to work. $GOOGL has over 90% search share & $MSFT Bing has less than 5%. AI powered search is more expensive for $GOOGL while $MSFT can attack through their dominant position in office productivity apps. The gauntlet has been thrown down.
Stock market has ignored rising oil & bond yields all year but was yesterday a warning sign? This makes reaction to NFP on Friday & start of earnings season next wk that much more important. Misses (such as with $TSLA deliveries yesterday) are likely to be punished unlike in…
If $AAPL does not negatively pre-announce on Monday (low chance), expect a technical relief rally given 2+ standard deviation move lower yesterday on DOJ news. This had been previewed for ~2 months. My longer-term fundamental view remains negative based on competition & valuation
French retailer Kering $KER.FP is down ~11%, after pre-announcing Q1 sales down ~10% y/y & biggest brand Gucci down ~20% driven by weak demand for luxury goods in APAC. This is not a good omen for the upcoming Q1 earnings results for those looking for improvement in China.
Japan’s Central Bank raised interest rates for the 1st time since 2007. Given how many leveraged macro strategies have been based on cheap yen borrowing costs, it will be interesting to see if eventually there is any collateral damage.
Great discussion on @YahooFinance w/ @thebradsmith @SeanaNSmith on the importance of the Fed. My belief continues to be if we have a strong economy driving minimal rate cuts then S&P can go higher in 2024 but stocks will continue to separate based on earnings.
Great discussion on @YahooFinance w/ @thebradsmith @SeanaNSmith on the importance of the Fed. My belief continues to be if we have a strong economy driving minimal rate cuts then S&P can go higher in 2024 but stocks will continue to separate based on earnings.
Good summary of thoughts w/ @OJRenick on @SchwabNetwork on 1) Magnificent 7 being now just the Fantastic 4 2) why $GOOGL is the most intriguing of the ones we kicked out, 3) our thoughts on the biotech sector, $XBI was one of our Top 5 picks for 2024. schwabnetwork.com/video/the-fant…
After a continued beating to start the yr, China $ASHR is above 50 & 100DMA in Feb for 1st time since last August dragging along $KWEB. Potential capitulation, improving charts & inexpensive PEs are a powerful combo. But ~60% China tariff if Trump is re-elected was unexpected.
Post tech rally sparked by $NVDA yesterday, we sold half our $AAPL at the close & are selling the rest today. We dislike positions that are opposed to our fundamental views but try to balance that w/ managing risk & taking advantage of high probability short-term trades.
Post tech rally sparked by $NVDA yesterday, we sold half our $AAPL at the close & are selling the rest today. We dislike positions that are opposed to our fundamental views but try to balance that w/ managing risk & taking advantage of high probability short-term trades.
Managing our risk & covered $AAPL short & getting long. Our data analytics gives high probability to ST bounce. Looking to sell/reshort given downside over LT: 1) Huawei resurgence, 2) no foldables, 3) no AI on smartphones, 4) minimal rev growth, 5) 27x CY24 PE vs 21x for S&P.
We discuss earnings driving stock performance for the Mag7 in 2024 ( $META $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA strong while $AAPL $TSLA $GOOGL underperform on competition issues) when it really wasn’t in 2022/23. We are long the Fantastic 4 of the group & short the other 3.
We discuss earnings driving stock performance for the Mag7 in 2024 ( $META $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA strong while $AAPL $TSLA $GOOGL underperform on competition issues) when it really wasn’t in 2022/23. We are long the Fantastic 4 of the group & short the other 3.
$PI had strong Q4 results despite end customers still burning through inventory. Over 40B units used RAIN RFID last yr but this is <1% of the mkt available. New M800 chip might now be inexpensive enough w/ features needed to go after the other 99%. Believe $AMZN chose $PI last yr
$PI had strong Q4 results despite end customers still burning through inventory. Over 40B units used RAIN RFID last yr but this is <1% of the mkt available. New M800 chip might now be inexpensive enough w/ features needed to go after the other 99%. Believe $AMZN chose $PI last yr
$AAPL guided CQ1 rev to -5% y/y consensus +1% y/y. Huawei gaining back share in China while foldables & new Samsung phones w/ AI gain traction globally. S&P at 20x CY24 PE vs Apple at 28x w/ 0% rev growth from CQ1:21 to CQ1:24E. Believe growth will matter in 2024 & PE will shrink
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla
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464K Followers 108 Following Chairman of Icahn Enterprises L.P.; etc., etc. Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.@DanielTNiles Dan, Great call on PI. I bought it at $58 about 6-7 months ago on your recommendation.
@JohnH_100 @DanielTNiles I assume he means he's on the fence about it.
@DanielTNiles 1996 - An avid comic book collector & during a phone call w/another, he let slip that he had purchased some comic art. I was stunned & asked him where one could acquire. He mentioned Christie's East in Manhattan. I flew in & later left with the below...
@DanielTNiles Dan, Great call on PI! I bought it because of you back in October. As I said before, I owe you multiple dinners if you ever make it down to Los Angeles.
@DanielTNiles Thank you Dan, for sharing your thoights. They help people like me 'see' through a very clouded, crazed 'maze'. It' s tough for old retirees like me.
@DanielTNiles Dan, Great calls on both META and AMZN!
@DanielTNiles Appreciate your candor and when you made this pick, you warned it was the one pick you questioned the most.
@DanielTNiles @RiskReversal Great interview Dan!
@DanielTNiles @DanielTNiles I appreciate you publicly sharing your market analysis! It's insightful to observe your approach
@DanielTNiles Happy Holidays Dan! I'm excited and looking forward to hear your forecast and top picks for 2024!
@DanielTNiles Thanks for these posts. You don’t have to share these thoughts, but you do.
@DanielTNiles Great call on PI Dan! I bought it on your advice. Thank you!
@diamondguyizzy @DanielTNiles @SquawkCNBC Huh? He has been very bullish on the market. He recently got out of almost all of his shorts. But this week he added some shorts. He's still net long.
@NewYorkWest2 @DanielTNiles @SquawkCNBC He needs to have some shorts to hedge against his longs. Dan will be happy if the market goes and AAPL goes up because he will be making far more on his longs than he will lose on his AAPL short. He would not short AAPL on its own, without his longs.
@DanielTNiles Rates, oil and the dollar?
@DanielTNiles Your insights have been helpful in navigating these turbulent times. Thank you.
@SorenCookie @DanielTNiles I believe he is still short some AAPL. He may have covered some. But as he said in the interview, he's always hedged. I doubt he would short AAPL if he didn't have some long positions to offset losses he may incur if AAPL and the market go up.
@Fawken_A_Mann @DanielTNiles It's exactly what pro investors do. Amateurs don't have the skill to do it. All the best traders and hedge fund managers will use some market timing.
I butchered the name then I looked it up...why @DanielTNiles is one of the best foxbusiness.com/video/63380961…