Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

former Fed... now teaching college kids... slow-ish marathoner... opinions are mine… [email protected] New York Joined January 2016

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

11 months ago

The Fed has blinked and this may be the end of the tightening cycle. They will find it difficult to reignite their rate tightening engine, as they view future data through a lens of inflation ranges and an increasingly dovish confirmation bias.

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

11 months ago

There is much room for improvement in Fed communications. First, today’s unnecessary pause was partially caused by disjointed official comments that backed the Fed into a corner. Second, today’s FOMC info was hawkish in writing but far less hawkish verbally.

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

11 months ago

Core remains elevated and sticky. We have a long way to go folks.

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

The Fed did not blink. Presser was very hawkish. I anticipate 75 PBs in December, although we have a number of data points and additional information about exogenous risks forthcoming. #Fed #FOMC #inflation

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

Powell will likely set a hawkish-sounding 75BP baseline for December. Equities should experience a meaningful setback and reignite the bear market, which will be good news for central banks. There will be plenty of data before the Dec meeting, however. #Fed #FOMC #Inflation

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

The SEP’s fanciful employment numbers equate to a light breeze in the face of the Fed and a minimal temptation to blink. However, I believe the winds will be more extreme and the temptation to blink stronger. #Fed #FOMC #inflation

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Conor Sen @conorsen

2 years ago

The new @ApartmentList monthly report is out — still seeing rent growth track well below 2021 but above 2018-19 levels, vacancy rates edging higher but maybe flattening out. This is probably still too hot for the Fed: apartmentlist.com/research/natio…

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Pedro da Costa @pdacosta

2 years ago

New episode of #FedSpeak: @Econ_Rick says 75 basis point hikes are the new baseline for now and risks of a 2023 recession are high. marketnews.com/podcasts/

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Michael S. Derby @michaelsderby

2 years ago

Rate Shift Complicates Fed Officials’ Desire to Give Guidance wsj.com/articles/derby…

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

The chairman again took future rate increases above a certain amount off the table ( > 75 BP now seems off the table). I am unclear why he finds this verbiage important - I find it misguided and unnecessary. #FOMC #FederalReserve #recession

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

The Fed’s projected rate hikes are inconsistent with their fanciful unemployment rate projections. We are near or at flat growth today and higher rates impact the economy with a lag. A soft landing is out the window. #FOMC #FederalReserve #recession

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

Since the Fed does not understand the ramifications of QT, it is best to let it run slowly and quietly in the background. No need to introduce additional volatility here. #FOMC #Fed #inflation

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

Since we are coming up on another presser ...

Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

Since we are coming up on another presser ...

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

10+ years of ZIRP/QE has littered the landscape with much malinvestment to be cleared. Don’t blink. #FederalReserve #FOMC

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Michael S. Derby @michaelsderby

2 years ago

New Data Suggests Public Losing Confidence That Fed Will Lower Inflation wsj.com/articles/new-d…

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

My former Fed colleagues should 1) have a real FF=0 no later than 2023:Q1 (I prefer the Dallas Fed’s 12-mo trimmed PCE, currently at 3.8) and 2) leave unchanged their QT plans until we see its impacts beyond months 2-3. #FED #inflation #FOMC

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

I continue to wish that the Chairman would speak in terms of real interest rates.

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Rick Roberts @Econ_Rick

2 years ago

The Fed could increase the pace of QT if it understood the likely market impact of doing so. It doesn’t and there is no need to add market volatility here.