FX Simplified @FXSimplify

@MrFamilyOffice “Family Offices are the only group of people who pay publicists to remove public information about them”. A partner of mine said this while discussing our typical client for a PE fund raise we’re doing with a B/D yesterday. So true - and I don’t blame them one bit!

@aryal1994 And another one, who!! @nuvocapital was right!!

Who is playing offense next year? What happens when a large portion of the $13,800,000,000 worth of multifamily properties purchased in 2021 with highly levered, 3-year, floating rate debt starts maturing in 2024? Opportunities ahead. More details in my newsletter tomorrow.

Office was the first commercial real estate asset class to enter distress this cycle. Class B & C Multifamily in the Sunbelt is the next shoe to drop. Too many of these properties were purchased between 2020-2022 at extremely low cap rates that buyers were able to make pencil…

One of the largest syndicators has this on their website "Returns are all net of fees and promote. As of March, 31st 2022." Good news: I love the transparency! Bad news: today is November 22, 2023

"Just one more capital call, ok, bro? Just one more. One more and I'll be good, alright? Jesus Christ, bro, I need it, ok? Just one more, and I swear to god, I'm done. Just need a little something to steady the ship, know what I mean? Fuck! Dude! C'mon, just a small one!"

I have analyzed over 250 multifamily deals, spoke with dozens of brokers, lenders, and other operators across the country this year. The last 6 weeks is materially different. Multifamily pricing this year is already +25% of peak values. Now, nearly every marketed deal is…

m. stanfield @resetbasis

2 years ago

I have analyzed over 250 multifamily deals, spoke with dozens of brokers, lenders, and other operators across the country this year. The last 6 weeks is materially different. Multifamily pricing this year is already +25% of peak values. Now, nearly every marketed deal is…

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There is no doubt in my mind that real estate syndicators are going to start manipulating their track records to hide their bad exits from this real estate cycle. I’m not sure entirely sure how they are going to do it, but it’ll happen. When your track record once showed an…

Anyone predicting exit cap rates right now is fooling themselves Underwrite the deal. What purchase price gets you to a stabilized yield at which you’d be willing to hold the deal unlevered? That’s where you should be a buyer. All other analysis is mostly noise right now

Hearing rumors about a 20 property multifamily portfolio going back to the bank The first thought that pops into my mind is all the LP capital that'll be lost - half of them probably have no idea that the news is coming Don't DM for the GP name, I won't give it out

Nationwide rents fell another 0.7% in October, the third consecutive month of decline. A relatively weak rental market has now persisted for well over a year, characterized by increasing vacancy rates that are keeping rent growth in check. Year-over-year rent change has…

The Real Deal’s October issue is live for digital subscribers and soon to hit mailboxes across the country.⁠⁠ Get the inside scoop on real estate's hottest headlines here: therealdeal.com/magazine/lates…

As a professional economist, I do lots of forecasting. Some forecasts I’m confident in, some not so much. I’m confident that the growth in consumer prices for shelter is headed much lower and that this will push overall inflation back near the Fed’s target by this time next year.

The biggest mistake made by real estate LP’s/allocators in 21-22 was relying on GPs’ great track records. GP’s killed it buying 5-6 caps/levering at 3, and nobody seemed to notice that by mid 2022 they were buying 3.5 caps and levering at 6. So LP’s followed the GP off the cliff.

US office vacancy rate just hit record highs A storm is coming for regional banks A thread 🧵

I need to get something off my chest: I have HATED the market the last 3 years I have been anxious, felt left behind and well OUT of the Arena. The most optimistic have won huge bets But I do my best work when there is chaos in the market. I call it "calm in chaos" I thrive…

One thing LPs need to understand. At this point, if you invested in sunbelt multi with bridge debt in 21/22 and still in the loan, it’s highly likely you’re losing money. I’ve accepted it myself and would like my capital back to reinvest.

Enough with these courses telling you this is passive and that the more debt the better. Making money from teaching a generation how to lose everything.

One of the issues multifamily operators are experiencing is cash burn associated with renovating units. Renovations can really only be performed when units are vacant and with already very thin margins due to high rates, some operators are choosing to neglect renovating in favor…

It happened… my most active construction (bank) lender stopped all new apartment construction loans. If you don’t have a signed term sheet it won’t be approved. There aren’t many conventional options left.