Harry Crane @HarryDCrane
statistics professor @RutgersU probability, risk, gambling, common sense https://t.co/o0dm8yeZAp harrycrane.com New Jersey Joined November 2015-
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Placing a bet (according to the stated rules and odds) based on a belief that there is a pricing mistake cannot possibly be against the spirit of the game, because that is the definition of the game. The game is a pricing competition. The book (1) sets the rules (2) sets the…
Placing a bet (according to the stated rules and odds) based on a belief that there is a pricing mistake cannot possibly be against the spirit of the game, because that is the definition of the game. The game is a pricing competition. The book (1) sets the rules (2) sets the…
Enjoyed sitting down with the guys at @_inplayLIVE Full conversation here: youtu.be/DKKaL2g5-nM?t=…
Enjoyed sitting down with the guys at @_inplayLIVE Full conversation here: youtu.be/DKKaL2g5-nM?t=…
In theory, Kelly bets most when your edge is highest. In practice, Kelly bets most when your mistakes are biggest.
In theory, Kelly bets most when your edge is highest. In practice, Kelly bets most when your mistakes are biggest.
Enjoying the debate by Exeter-Harvard-MIT-educated over whether it is possible to cite Wikipedia. I was taught how to cite websites in 7th grade at a school with 2/10 ranking. But I wasn't taught not to cut food with my fork or how to tie a Windsor knot.
The defining characteristic of academia: Big egos, little stakes
I turn on baseball for the first time in years. I see a pitch clock, batters limited to one "timeout", pitchers limited to the "disengagements", runners wearing oven mitts. I'm out.
Of course, this flaw is secondary to the more obvious defect: citing Bayesian probability in any conversation that is not specifically about Bayesian probability signals fraud. Using it incorrectly in that context only confirms what is already obvious.
Of course, this flaw is secondary to the more obvious defect: citing Bayesian probability in any conversation that is not specifically about Bayesian probability signals fraud. Using it incorrectly in that context only confirms what is already obvious.
Much like Dershowitz flawed argument for Pr(OJ guilty | abuse) = 1/1000, SBF fails to condition on all the info. The probability might start small but not after conditioning on the actual body of work.
Much like Dershowitz flawed argument for Pr(OJ guilty | abuse) = 1/1000, SBF fails to condition on all the info. The probability might start small but not after conditioning on the actual body of work.
The funny thing about all the attention this study is getting: Everyone RT-ing it assumes the conclusion doesn't apply to them. *Of course* they have more than an "intermediate" level of knowledge -- this is about all those people not as smart as them. nature.com/articles/s4156…
oobatz
The problem w the @NateSilver538 tweet isn't the naive view of markets/betting. (I actually think Silver knows better.) So why would he knowingly tweet something so dumb? Because he wanyed to make a political statement about abortion, disguised as a comment about prediction…
The problem w the @NateSilver538 tweet isn't the naive view of markets/betting. (I actually think Silver knows better.) So why would he knowingly tweet something so dumb? Because he wanyed to make a political statement about abortion, disguised as a comment about prediction…
Paying 93c to win 7c (before fees) is the "freest" money on earth when (a) the market won't settle for another year and current risk-free interest rate is 5% (b) the 7c "win" is chopped down by 10% commission (0.7c) and 5% fee to withdrawal the total amount (5c). So the 7c…
Paying 93c to win 7c (before fees) is the "freest" money on earth when (a) the market won't settle for another year and current risk-free interest rate is 5% (b) the 7c "win" is chopped down by 10% commission (0.7c) and 5% fee to withdrawal the total amount (5c). So the 7c…
Instead of preventing athletes from betting, leagues should encourage it. Allow players to bet on themselves/team but it has to be registered and publicly disclosed. Knowing Phil has $1m on a match would make watching him play that much more entertaining.
Instead of preventing athletes from betting, leagues should encourage it. Allow players to bet on themselves/team but it has to be registered and publicly disclosed. Knowing Phil has $1m on a match would make watching him play that much more entertaining.
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BREAKING NEWS 🚨 @CircaSports bans pro bettor @pointsux 📰 They disable 2h wagering in NOV They disable parlay wagering in MAR They disable any & all wagering NOW Circa & @JeffreyBenson12 claim everyone is welcome but things have changed 👘 20k profit last 2 wks ⏭️ banned
READ ALL ABOUT IT 📰 @CircaSports now limits winning bettors 🚨 Pro bettor @pointsux goes on hot streak of a lifetime & now has $0 max wager across all sports 2nd half lines the following weekend 🌡️ Circa & @JeffreyBenson12 claim EVERYONE is welcomed but things are changing 👘
Happy New Year to my main man @ChineseMike2 and all my Asian brothers and sisters.
If the actual “bookmakers” who make the decision to limit a customer had to deal with the customer directly, either face to face or on the phone, we would have far less limiting by sportsbooks. The Bettor’s Voice must be heard.
Can you win money betting on sports? 🤔 @HarryDCrane a Statistics PhD and Associate Professor @ Rutgers University explains on Behind The Lines the history of sports bettors early success to present day #SportsBettingX 🕰️ 🧵👇
In theory, Kelly bets most when your edge is highest. In practice, Kelly bets most when your mistakes are biggest.
All the math guys talk about understanding variance and Kelly betting and believing in the process. Kelly is gonna run off with some other dude when your ass goes broke. Maximizing EV means shit if you lose all your money. If you can’t stomach going 0 for on any given day,…
@lakens @HarryDCrane It's not a joke, of course. You asked for points to be contrary to prereg. And one of the latent issue with prereg is that it is a solution overfocused on the "official" function of papers (encapsulating sincere knowledge) but ignores other social functions of papermaking.
Prediction markets have concluded DeSantis almost certainly comes in 2nd (@Polymarket at 97, @PredictIt at 98). Any news outlets that still tell you otherwise are either behind or falsely stoking intrigue to keep your eyes glued.
@drewphil7 @DKSportsbook @DraftKings I’ll back you up on this if you show us the unit size
@BillAckman @MIT Respectfully, who gives much of a shit about this?
@HarryDCrane People cite much dumber texts -- "peer-reviewed" texts -- than wikipedia articles.
@overitall69 @realchrisrufo @BillAckman @NeriOxman I mean, yes. But this idea that plagiarism isn't newsworthy as long as the plagiarizer is not "currently working as an academic" is just absurd.
@gregg_re @realchrisrufo @BillAckman @NeriOxman Audit all of their records. See how many frauds these “elite institutions” have pumped out.
@realchrisrufo @BillAckman @NeriOxman Isn't it newsworthy that MIT granted a PhD that's full of plagiarism from wikipedia?!
"Overhead" is one of academia's more sordid open secrets. At this point federal and private research funding agencies exist largely to funnel cash towards the graduates of Studies programs staffing university administration.
Around 2007, professors started routinely referring to medical attention as "care." That was a sign.
A lot of words, am I am getting this right? i) If a Zionist accuses a non-Zionist plagiarist of plagiarism, it is plagiarism & it is bad. ii) If a non-Zionist accuses a Zionist plagiarist of plagiarism, then something else going on, etc. & it's not bad. Other combinations? Help!
It has been the case since as far as I can remember in business and in media that family was off limits, unless of course the family is directly involved in the business. The code of the road was that you can attack the protagonist as much as you want, but not his wife and not…
Does anyone besides me think it's weird to judge academic plagiarism the same way that we judge literary plagiarism? Academic papers should not be judged by the originality of their language, but by the originality of their contribution to general knowledge
@BillAckman @MIT It's disappointing to see MIT weaponizing media to protect plagiarists.
@GeorgeKurdin Feel you would like this from @HarryDCrane analytics.bet/articles/how-l…
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