jc.gutierrez @JC6495

Ouchie 🫣🙏🇵🇭

Bangko Sentral @BangkoSentral

3 days ago

BSP raises target RRP rate by 50 basis points to 5.50% bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/Medi…

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Peso sinks to new record low of 63 a dollar while PSEi drops below 5,600 level manilastandard.net/business/31480… via @Manila Standard

🇵🇭HUGE: The Philippines' largest crypto exchange could LOSE its license over offshore gambling links. Coins(.)ph faces punitive action from the central bank for allegedly serving offshore gambling firms. The exchange has more than 18 MILLION customers and controls about 75% to 80% of the country's peso to stablecoin liquidity. At the start of this month, the central bank reportedly restricted deposits through its main wallet firm without giving a reason, per CoinDesk.

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Key Events This Week: 1. OPEC Monthly Report - Tuesday 2. September Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday 3. September CPI Inflation data - Wednesday 4. September PPI Inflation data - Thursday 5. Fed Chair Warsh Speaks - Thursday 6. Q3 2026 Earnings Season Begins This Week Earnings season has officially arrived.

A few things to know before considering the $MYNT.PH IPO. ⚠️ IPO price trimmed from P10 ceiling to P6.60 is telling. 👉 TTM PE of 24.6X is a 17% premium to listed peers. 👉 FWD PE of 20.4X is also a 17% premium to peers. 👉 P/B of 5.4X is a 52% premium to peers. 👉 PEG ratio of 1.2X is a 50% premium to peers. ⁉️Gaming-related revenue took a hit from Aug '25 BSP directive to suspend in-app gaming access. But Payment Solutions business still took in revenue from payment processing of licensed gaming operators. This could be further impacted by future BSP directives like Circular 1237 (effective July 4, 2026). ⁉️BSP Circular 1238 pushing for electronic payment fees to be reasonable, fair and transparent led GCash to cut its bank transfer fees by 33% to P10 effective July 4, 2026. Payment Solutions Take Rate of 0.25% (down from 0.32% a year ago) could erode further. 🛑 GCash now gets majority of its business from lending (CreditTech), which accounted for 42% of 1H26 revenue. But loan loss provision amounted to 44% of CreditTech revenue, with NPL ratio of 4.9% improving markedly from 7.5% as of end-2025. That's better than Kaspi's 6.6% NPL ratio and in-line with Nu Holdings, but worse than SeaMoney's 1%. 🛑 Important to consider that given Mynt's growing exposure to lending, its loan book has never experienced a recession. Today, the Philippines is experiencing its slowest economic growth, the highest inflation (7.2%) since March 2023, and rising interest rates. So the risk to the loan portfolio of a company like Mynt is to the downside. 🟢 Given its sheer size upon listing (est. P440B market cap), Mynt will be bought up by index funds out of necessity. This could provide initial support for Mynt in the first couple of weeks. BUT... to significantly move a company this big in the near-to-medium-term will require significant foreign inflows, which are unlikely given the risks inherent in the Philippines, including its currency and economic prospects. I've always considered Mynt's IPO to be coming a couple of years too late, offering little upside to retail investors, while serving primarily as an "out" for original investors. This is a company worth looking at again if it fell to the mid-teens in terms of valuation. So, figure just under P5.00 a share. Right now, the risk doesn't seem to justify the potential upside. NFA.

READ | September 2026 Inflation Report 📊 Headline or overall inflation in the Philippines increased to 7.2% in September 2026, from 6.1% in August 2026.

It is now official: GCash parent Mynt Inc. will offer its shares to the public at P6.60 apiece according to its final prospectus, dated Oct. 2, 2026, and confirming an InsiderPH report more than a week ago that major institutional investors were coming into the landmark initial public offering at that price. READ: insiderph.com/gcash-makes-p6…

BREAKING: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%. Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were also revised down by 30 basis points each. October rate hike odds are falling again.

$LTL to boost public float. LTL CFO Carreon said they plan to raise their public float to 20% (from the current 15%) within 12 months of listing. The share sale would cover 2.3bn-2.4bn shares, and might be a mix of secondary & primary shares, depending on the firm’s requirements.

Ayala Corp. shareholders may not have to wait long to see the benefits of Mitsubishi Corp.’s ₱44.5 billion investment. bilyonaryo.com/2026/09/23/hig…

bitcoin:native finishes the week on a bullish englufing new lows soon

Today is another reminder of just how fast things can change. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 rate cuts in 2026 and we had $60 oil prices. Today, a new Fed rate hike cycle has begun, oil prices are above $100, and diesel prices are at record highs. The market and the Fed are in agreement, lower rates are not coming as long as the current energy crisis continues. There simply is no scenario where rate cuts are warranted with $100+ oil prices and 3.5%+ inflation, aside from an economic depression. Luckily, we are also in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in history, and the AI boom continues to provide substantial support for the S&P 500. Without the AI Revolution, markets would be in a much darker position right now. On the flip side, a resolution to the current energy crisis opens for the S&P 500 to rise well above 8,000. For now, a long and bumpy road appears to be ahead as the Fed continues its 60-straight-month battle against inflation. "Higher for longer" has returned.

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR WARSH'S STATEMENT (9/16/26): 1. Warsh says the decision to hike rates comes at a time when the economy is "strengthening" 2. Warsh says he is "hard-pressed to call financial conditions restrictive" 3. The view that conditions are not restrictive was "widely shared by the FOMC" 4. Warsh says the predominant focus of the Fed is on price stability 5. Warsh says he did not submit a dot for the Fed's dot-plot 6. The Fed "must be confident that inflation is moving to our 2% objective" The Fed is highly committed to obtaining 2% inflation.

JP Morgan's Trading Gameplan for tomorrow's rate decision 🚨 🚨

BREAKING: August PPI Inflation rises to 5.4%, above expectations of 5.3%. Core PPI Inflation rose to 4.6%, the highest since June 2026. July's headline and core PPI inflation numbers were also revised higher. The odds of rate hikes are rising further on the news.

WHITE HOUSE HESITATES ON COPPER TARIFFS The White House has not yet decided on refined copper tariffs, as officials weigh boosting U.S. production against higher manufacturing costs ahead of the midterms. Copper prices have already hit record highs as buyers stockpile supplies ahead of potential tariffs. The proposed duties could support U.S. miners and smelters, but risk raising costs for manufacturers and worsening global supply tightness.

BREAKING: Copper prices on the LME have surged to a record $14,533 per ton, now up +47% over the last 12 months. The surge comes amid a supply shortage with rising demand from data centers, renewable energy, and power grids. Furthermore, expectations that President Trump will expand tariffs to refined copper imports have pushed US Comex prices above global prices. This is encouraging traders to ship hundreds of thousands of tons of copper to the US this year to profit from the price difference. Now, global stockpiles are increasingly concentrated in the US, draining LME inventories to critically low levels and leaving less copper readily available to buyers elsewhere. Copper's supply crunch is accelerating.

There are 4 ways a breakout can behave: 1. Break and run. 2. Break and retest. 3. Break and stall. 4. Break and fail. The first two can confirm demand. The last two warn that buyers may be running out of urgency. The breakout gets your attention. What happens afterward gives you real information.

📌As of early September 2026, Atlas Consolidated Mining (AT:PSE) shows an estimated intrinsic value between ₱ 64 – ₱ 70 per share, based on updated discounted cash flow (DCF) and peer‑based valuation models. 🎯Economic Moat Scale Advantage: Largest listed copper producer in the Philippines; 26‑year reserve life at Carmen Copper mine. Strategic Backing: SM Investments (34.1%) and Anglo Philippine Holdings (28.6%) provide capital resilience. Commodity Leverage: 86 % of revenue from copper pure exposure to global electrification demand. Operational Expansion: Pit widening and stripping plan expected to double output by 2028. Foreign brokers are actively rotating positions in AT:PSE this September CLSA and UBS remain net buyers around ₱ 17.50–₱ 18.20, while JP Morgan and Credit Suisse have been consistent sellers above ₱ 19.50, creating a tug‑of‑war that defines the current breakout at ₱ 18.40. Net foreign flows across the PSE are negative (–₱ 225.9M on Sept 7), but mining stocks like Atlas still attract selective inflows. ⚠️NFA, CAVEAT EMPTOR

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🚨 Ray Dalio Warned Investors to Load Up on Gold Before the Dollar Gets Debased Over 500 Tonnes of Gold has fled the United States of America!! France, Germany, Netherlands have pulled out the gold and moving it to the City of London. Norway, the world’s largest wealth fund just dumped $80 Billion of U.S. Treasuries. Scott Bessent is holding back Japan, the largest foreign holder with $1.4 Trillion holdings, from dumping the treasuries. China is planning to replace all its US Treasury holdings with gold over the next 5 years. South Korea has restarted buying gold after 13 years, after dumping U.S. dollar reserves to save its currency. Ray Dalio has already won. $22B, built Bridgewater, nothing left to prove. He’s talking anyway because he sees the storm coming and figures somebody has to. No angle. Just the warning.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ What happens when Scott Bessent’s Bond Buyback fails? This was exactly warned by the famous City Of London banker @LordBelgrave at the start of the year. Washington will have no choice but to debase the U.S. dollar to get out of its debt trap. Scott Bessent effectively confirmed it by saying “We have no choice but to grow out of the debt.” The Devaluation is coming. Own Gold.

Trensik @Trensik_com

2 months ago

The gold map is being redrawn. Reserves leaving US vaults for London. Record flows into Hong Kong. Central banks buying two years of gold every year. When nations move metal for control, individuals should ask who controls theirs. Trade Tokenized Gold $XAUa on the $XRP

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