Jason Teh @Jasgateh
Financial markets, global macro, fundamentals, quant, and charts. No financial advice. Opinions my own. Sydney Joined August 2026-
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Sounds like a bargain with a 8% yield! It might be related to Chinese nationals being forced to sell overseas assets to help fund back-dated tax liabilities that was introduced by the Chinese Government to tax foreign income from 24 July 2026. The Government gave citizens a 90-day grace period to settle unpaid liabilities dating back to January 2023. That reporting and payment deadline is today, 22 October 2026. I suspect there could be a few more bargains out there.
We'll soon see managers also complain about growth investing. Another fingerprint of the market structure being broken if there is strange price behaviour within a sector. Pod shops are now the marginal price setters given the disappearing long only managers. To capture the alpha of negative EPS revisions from $PEP, they will short $PEP and go long $KO to neutralise the sector bet. $PEP PE is now close to 2 decade lows while $KO PE is close to 2 decade highs
Market structure has changed when you see perverse price actin within the same sector. Pod shops will short $PEP and long $KO to strip out the alpha from $PEP negative EPS revisions. $PEP PE is close to 2 decade low while $KO PE is close to 2 decade high. Pod shops have grown significantly relative to the shrinking discretionary long only managers. They are now the marginal price setters given the reducing stock float from the rise in passive flows.
@Teslaconomics $AMZN in 2002 when it broke even. $SPCX broke even in 2026
@TheRonnieVShow $AMZN in 2002 vs $SPCX in 2026 Forward EPS breakeven for $AMZN in 2002. $SPCX in 2026
$SPCX IPO on June 12, 2026 came with high expectations at a very high valuation multiple. The company has not disappointed as it has reported two strong quarterly reports. After the latest quarterly, NTM sales, EBITDA and EPS was revised up 35%, 27% and 28% respectively.
Citadel's alpha laser beam means they attempt to extract alpha by neutralising sector bets by being long and short within the sector. They say it helps their managers have duration with their stock bets. Isolating alpha in this way works. However, there are unintended cosequences in a world dominated by passive funds that reduces stock float. Multi-manager hedge funds like Citadel are increasingly becoming the the price setters as they gain share of a shrinking float when discretionary long only managers disappear from the system. Check out the night and day difference between two stocks in the same sector. Long $KO and short $PEP neutralises the sector bet, and the alpha reflects $PEP negative EPS revisions reative to $KO. As long as the relative EPS revision signal holds, the flow of capital pushes $KO's PE to be on par with its all time high while $PEP's PE approaches its all time low.
justin lubell, head of global equities at citadel ($77 bn in AUM), on why a great stock idea can still be impossible to hold. “I know I'm right, but I couldn't hang on” a rate shock. a sector selloff. a style falling out of favour. he wants the portfolio built so those
@wintonARK To maintain Tesla at 50% ownership of the merged group, $SPCX need to pay about 40% more than current share price for $TSLA
@SawyerMerritt Will $SPCX pay a significnat premium for $TSLA so that TSLA shareholders control 50% of the combined equity?
@amitisinvesting If the merger between $SPCX and $TSLA were to happen with $TSLA controling 50% of the equity then TSLA is undervalued relative to SPCX
$NXT share price dropped 40% because the value of equity is skinny when it carries this much debt load. Before today's announcement $NXT net debt to enterprice value was 55%.
Musk revealed something if $SPCX acquired $TSLA. If TSLA shareholders were to maintain 50% share of the combined group, SPCX have to pay 44% premium to TSLA current after market share prices.
Elon Musk today on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla: "Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees at the request of shareholders. Because I'm a conflicted party I can't be in on these discussions. I don't think we should assume that a merger is a certainty.
@DrewCohenMoney $SE does not have a sales growth issue. It has a margin problem and lacks operating leverage. Despite its rapid sales growth its margins have plateaued isnce 2023. Stock should rerate if they can demonstrate operating leverage with sales growth.
@MichaelMOTTCM $NVDA net cash has skyrocketed with EBITDA. Net cash/EBITDA has been relatively stable since 2022. However, market is worried about $CRWV and its implications if it stops building
$WTC.AX in a few charts Senitment was high until corportate governance issues surfaced in late 2024. Then sentiment gets shaken again in mid-2025 when they annuonce takeover of e2open, a low growth business, that represented a third of group profits. Market recalibrates its multiple lower on a slower growth business. Now the multiple is low enough where the company just need to demonstrate growth again for the stock to rerate.
@BlumbergJa71286 @kurtsaltrichter $MU margins are more cyclical But since 2008 GFC has demonstrated structurally higher margins (higher lows), except for the margin collpase in 2023 because of the post-COVID overhang
@BlumbergJa71286 @kurtsaltrichter $NVDA margins do dip but has structurally increased over time
@kurtsaltrichter $PEP vs $KO in charts $PEP had an earnings hiccup while $KO did not
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