Jeffrey. P. Snider @JefSnideirEDU_
Host Eurodollar University channel. Monetary science reborn. Putting central banks where they belong. linktr.ee/eurodollaruniv… West Palm Beach, FL Joined July 2014-
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From deep in the heart of Texas, a place known for booms and busts. Canary in the...oil well? Jobless claims (despite questions) and key drop in consumers. People don't realize how negative people everyone is right now (because, stocks). 1. Rising jobless claims indicate…
Below Stall Speed It's the theme in almost every data series, especially all the most important and anything to do with labor and employment. open.substack.com/pub/eurodollar…
Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening, echoing bull steepening already reshaping curves. 1️⃣ Foreign official accounts have sold a…
"Too many Treasuries" went from claiming dealers were getting stuck with bonds and notes to now complaining there aren't enough left for them. There is no Treasury rejection - at all. Instead everyone has been trying to make the long bond their last stand for the idea.…
🚨 Economic Update Alert! 🚨 US labor market likely entered a recession LAST YEAR. 1️⃣ Evidence is growing for significant job losses now being more firmly established downward revisions to payroll data. 2️⃣ Producer prices have declined, indicating a lack of tariff inflation…
What was really in the QCEW? A recession that began last year. Extrapolating forward, one that is getting worse this year. So much for those rate cuts. youtu.be/P-FIEYOHyb4
Why the Fed will cut by fifty next week, from the Fed's own consumer survey data. It's simple math: No jobs + no tariff inflation = 50 ---on the labor side, job finding expectations utterly plunged to lowest on record. Big drop equals pandemic months and expectation slides…
🌟 Big shifts in the US economy! @MetreSteven's favorite macro indicator just went nuclear. **Backlog Concerns**: The ISM backlog index has hit its lowest since 2009, indicating companies are struggling to secure new business, which could lead to significant job cuts.…
Biggest downgrade to payrolls ever. Massive downward 911,000 revision. Beveridge is still smiling. Jay Powell is not. . . . . . . . . . . . Waller might be.
🚨 Key Economic Insights Alert! 🚨 In the latest analysis, we dive into the implications of the record low copper to gold ratio, the shifting labor market dynamics, and what they mean for the economy. Here are the three main takeaways: 1️⃣ A record low copper to gold ratio…
Another day, another record low. Directly related to jobs, too. The labor market may not be crashing, but there is definitely *something* going on in it. youtu.be/rIiFBQjUI60
It's all good. Nothing a few [more] rate cuts won't fix...right?
The Tipping Point open.substack.com/pub/eurodollar…
I'm going to be live on YT at 11:30am ET. There's a lot to cover, from US#s to Canada's and market rates that are, shockingly, plunging. I guess the world isn't rejecting Treasuries after all. youtube.com/live/eoJcPBE7o… #fundamentalsnotdeficits #payrolls
Canadian payrolls crash for second month in a row, too. Maybe it's not the data? Terrible day for workers in North America. #payrolls
This makes four months in a row where jobs were almost certainly lost. Wonder why there's been no tariff inflation? #payrolls
hi am thandi i wnt a frnd am new in dis twitter plz
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