Jennifer Cafarella @JennyCafarella
Director of Strategic Initiatives @TheStudyofWar. 40 under 40 @MidEastPolicy. Fellow @MasonNatSec. Retweet≠endorsement. understandingwar.org Washington, DC Joined February 2009-
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Here’s a simple truth that many foreign political commentators can’t seem to understand about Ukrainians: Russian occupation is much worse than war for us.
Here’s a simple truth that many foreign political commentators can’t seem to understand about Ukrainians: Russian occupation is much worse than war for us.
New: State Dept determined 5 Israeli security units committed gross violations of human rights prior to October 7. The Israeli govt took remediation steps on 4 units. W/ 1 unit there are ongoing consultations w/ Israelis, US decision to come when talks complete. No timeframe tho.
NEW: Recent Russian gains NW of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions west of Avdiivka. These withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains & don't portend an operationally significant penetration in the near term. 🧵
“We estimate that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict.” ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estima…
NEW: Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. 🧵(1/8)
I admit I laughed (but of course do not do that)
I mean, only sort of. It’s a new threshold but this escalation path has been fairly linear.
I mean, only sort of. It’s a new threshold but this escalation path has been fairly linear.
TikTok cannot be divested from ByteDance because its value is not economic,but strategic, as a weapon of political warfare. For the CCP to lose control defeats the purpose--so its masters would rather have a ban, taking any domestic US dissatisfaction as a consolation prize.
TikTok cannot be divested from ByteDance because its value is not economic,but strategic, as a weapon of political warfare. For the CCP to lose control defeats the purpose--so its masters would rather have a ban, taking any domestic US dissatisfaction as a consolation prize.
This right here - that an American would put partisanship aside and vote with his conscience in a major reversal of the trend - is why I will never lose faith in my fellow Americans. And neither should you.
This right here - that an American would put partisanship aside and vote with his conscience in a major reversal of the trend - is why I will never lose faith in my fellow Americans. And neither should you.
NEW: The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine. 🧵(1/6)
Weird, I was told it wouldn't make a difference.
Weird, I was told it wouldn't make a difference.
“The official number of children confirmed kidnapped from Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s regime is 20,000, but Moscow has bragged that their forces have trafficked over 700,000 Ukrainian children.” - @HeatherNauert for @nypost nypost.com/2024/04/20/opi…
Let em rip, #Ukraine
Agree
You did good Johnson.
"Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
"Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
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4K Followers 260 Following Professor of Political Science at the University of California San Diego IR theory and conflict, formal modeling. All views expressed here are strictly personalThis was a deep and insightful discussion. Many thanks @TheStudyofWar!
During their time in Washington, DC @PISM_Poland experts had the pleasure of meeting with @TheStudyofWar analysts. We exchanged notes on the frontline situation in #Ukraine, discussed potential Russian offensive scenarios, and tackled the issue of future strategy toward Russia
The Finns have a “I’m not stuck in here with you you’re stuck in here with me” mentality and it makes me incredibly grateful they joined the alliance.
Major General Harri Ohra-Aho on Russia's decision to move ballistic missiles closer to the Finnish border "Of course, it's none of my business, but operationally it seems absurd to bring missile systems with such a long range closer to our border, they make easy targets for us"
Wisdom. We should expect Iran and its proxies to continue to press against long standing red lines. The danger is that Tehran may eventually touch an actual red line or achieve a catastrophic success that ignite the conventional conflict Western policymakers and Iran have sought…
I mean, only sort of. It’s a new threshold but this escalation path has been fairly linear.
Iran withdraws all its forces from southern Syria out of fear of Israeli strikes. • Tehran also closed several Iranian military offices in Damascus — AFP
Ukrainian diaspora FTW
In the last week of February, a large billboard appeared across the street from Mike Johnson’s home church in Benton, Louisiana. “For such a time as this,” it read, quoting a Bible verse alongside an image of a damaged Baptist church in Berdyansk, Ukraine. The advertisement was…
An analogy about Bislamach and why its alleged IHL violations are esp. alarming: Imagine if, at the height OIF, the Ranger Training Brigade or USMC School of Infantry had been deployed as combat brigades—and imagine if those units proved responsible for early war crimes…
…at Bislamach, the IDF’s enlisted infantry leader course, which trains the squad leaders and platoon sergeants for the whole IDF Infantry Corps and thus can reasonably be expected to have wide influence on other units’ ROE interpretations and norms
To adapt language from a recent @TheStudyofWar report on Russian disinfo: The point is that we must recognize the enormous effort the Kremlin is putting into manufacturing/ spreading its assertions in order to create a picture of reality that, taken in its totality, is false—
🇳🇪🇷🇺 The outcome and trajectory of Niger's coup was not inevitable. Rather, it was influenced, in part, by concerted Russian disinformation campaigns. Read more from this section of our latest Infographic: "Russian Disinformation around Niger’s Coup" buff.ly/3Jriaqr
I can help, @elonmusk. There is an exit strategy. The russians will be driven out of all Ukrainian territory. That's it.
@DavidSacks My biggest concern is that there is no exit strategy, just a forever war where kids die in trenches from artillery or charging machine guns and snipers through minefields.
The group’s provinces are actually more integrated now than they were when IS controlled territory in Iraq and Syria.
We probably can't escape the relentless pursuit of the word "decentralised" when depicting Islamic State in analysis and it's going to be the source of my migraine for the next decade.The word is just too much of temptation to use. And it's not true as I've been saying for years.
I’m proud of America! We stand with Ukraine. A message to my fellow Americans, and those fighting in Ukraine. We stand with you, and the trolls don’t represent our country!
awesome thread from David, on how the world was watching, worrying, and now is quite relieved....
Our allies have been anxiously watching—more closely than most Americans have—to see how long it would take the U.S. House to finally regain sanity and assist Ukraine in its fight against vicious invasion. They get it. Case in point, Norway’s Foreign Minister @EspenBarthEide:
⚡️⚡️⚡️Passed! To be honest, I have tears in my eyes. So much suffering, so much pain. So many lost friends and wonderful people in these horrible years of war. Now there is hope to save more lives of those who are still alive. Thankful to all friends of Ukraine. Thank you.
Why is it so important to pass Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (financial assistance to Ukraine) and what will likely happen when it is supported by a majority of lawmakers from both parties and promptly signed into law by U.S. President Biden. ◾️ This…
Historic decisions change history. Good to have you back, America 🇺🇸
Today, we received the awaited decision on the US aid package that we long fought for. And a very significant one. Our warriors on the front lines, as well as our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror, will feel it. The U.S. House of Representatives voted on it…
SCOOP: The U.S. is considering sending additional military advisers to the embassy in Kyiv, the latest show of American commitment to Ukraine as Russia appears to be gaining momentum in the two-year conflict. The advisers would not be in a combat role, but rather would advise…
You’re telling me we can bolster our defense industrial base, expand American manufacturing, prove our technological superiority and value to allies on the world stage, and let our stockpiled weapons blow up the Russian stuff they were built for, without a single soldier? Damn.
It's a good day to keep Ukraine in the fight. Now to finish the job. 🇺🇲🇺🇦
Putin’s meat-grinder tactics lead to catastrophic Russian casualties | K... youtu.be/6A0yk_YqUsg?si… via @YouTube Great to talk to @KatStepanenko from @TheStudyofWar for @TimesRadio