@charliebilello If the economy was a human body. This is a clear sign of working high on blow (leverage) delivering high productive gains while displaying symptoms of confusion and exhaustion, only continuing the work and promising high productivity with expectations of more blow (Lower rates).…
The U.S. economy is flashing conflicting signals.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: growth revised up from 3.1% → 3.4% for Q3.
Core CPI: stuck at 3.1% — well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Housing: inflation-adjusted prices now higher than at the 2008 peak → widespread unaffordability.…
There is an uncomfortably high 48% probability that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next 12 months. That’s according to Moody’s recently unveiled leading economic indicator, derived using a machine learning algorithm on our extensive databases. It’s less than 50%,…
Can rate cuts be justified while price momentum is still trending upward? With tariff impacts expected to feed into prices in Q4 2025, Jerome Powell is asking himself: ‘To cut or not to cut?’ Markets have overwhelmingly priced in a rate cut, and he is likely to deliver. But such…
Can rate cuts be justified while price momentum is still trending upward? With tariff impacts expected to feed into prices in Q4 2025, Jerome Powell is asking himself: ‘To cut or not to cut?’ Markets have overwhelmingly priced in a rate cut, and he is likely to deliver. But such…
Lower interest rates provide short-term support to financial markets but do little to address structural economic challenges. The U.S. government’s elevated debt levels make it unsustainable to rely indefinitely on accommodative policy. A credible fiscal pivot prioritizing long…
Lower interest rates provide short-term support to financial markets but do little to address structural economic challenges. The U.S. government’s elevated debt levels make it unsustainable to rely indefinitely on accommodative policy. A credible fiscal pivot prioritizing long…
$BTC, $ETH, & $SOL are sliding after the CPI data release. Markets expect a rate cut decision at next week's FOMC meeting. These corrections are mostly profit-taking.
P.S. Unleash the #BullRun#jAV#Crypto#DeFi
$BTC, $ETH, & $SOL are sliding after the CPI data release. Markets expect a rate cut decision at next week's FOMC meeting. These corrections are mostly profit-taking.
P.S. Unleash the #BullRun#jAV#Crypto#DeFi https://t.co/gw79Ug2gOa
CPI data for August is out.
CPI rises to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, meeting expectations.
CPI inflation is the highest since January 2025.
Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut next week.
A rate cut would sustain the current #Crypto and #Tech rally.
FedWatch probs for a 25bps Sep rate cut dipped from ~95% to 83.4%. Investors tweaking portfolios amid talks of fewer cuts in 2025. Crypto's bull rally hinges on lower rates, stay wary of #altcoin bubbles!
What’s your take?
#Crypto#Fed#Investing
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