This week all of Kyiv wondered if Zelensky would replace #Zaluzhnyi. Based on multiple sources, we believe the planned changes in 🇺🇦 govt go much further Our new #Spotlight "New Strategy - New Team?" is out now at insights.kyivindependent.com (free with registration) A 🧵
To start with Zaluzhnyi - everything points to reporting by @olliecarroll and other veteran 🇺🇦 being correct: Zelensky called Zaluzhnyi in to get him to resign, offered different positions... Zaluzhnyi refused
Technically, Zelensky can just dismiss him. The tricky thing is to find a replacement. Neither Budanov nor Syrskyi seem particularly interested (Budanov in particular gets to raid Russians without the massive management headaches the top job entails)
Other potential candidates seem hesitant to appear as betraying Zaluzhnyi. We believe the difficulty in convincing someone to take the job is the biggest factor holding Zelensky back
Relations with Western partners are another thorny issue. Zaluzhnyi is trusted, particularly by people in the US defence space. Both the US and Europe, however, ultimately see this as an internal issue for Ukraine. That is - this would not be a deal-breaker, but it won't help
Dismissing Zaluzhnyi would theoretically open up new options (esp. military ones) that the current AFU commander opposes. But it creates even more risks (incl. politicizing military decision-making)
There's also the question of elections. Even though a vote is officially off and almost no one (with a few exceptions) wants it - Zelensky will face a rising democratic legitimacy issue and waning support, especially after March (when elections were planned)
Zaluzhnyi, if he were to run (he has shown little indication, but others are pushing him), would be a formidable challenger There is a relatively widespread belief that without his position, Zaluzhnyi would lose popularity. Staying in the limelight is difficult...
...and he is not an experienced politician. He cannot criticize the military (too much), and its difficult to see him opining on social or economic issues. He would likely have a lot of gaffes. (see Arestovich experience). This belief is probably wrong.
A lot of opposition figures would like rally around Zaluzhnyi and try to use him to take down Zelensky. We're already seeing this happen - hence the offer of multiple senior positions to keep him busy.
But the story goes beyond Zaluzhnyi. The consensus thinking in the West is that Ukraine can push through 2024 and win(ish) in 2025. But in Ukraine every month is a fight for survival and people are increasingly feeling the pain